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Most of the Mag 7 companies have already reported earnings and they were evenly matched, with half of them impressing while the other half flopping. Microsoft and Amazon are set to set new best records up in a single trading day as the AI reversal demand is very much back underway.

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US), doing well. #####

US stocks rose (SPX +0.4%, NDX +1.0%) as a global chipmakers’ rebound led by SK Hynix (+30%) and Samsung (+21%) lifted South Korea’s Kospi by an unprecedented 18%. In addition, $Amazon(AMZN.US) ‘s strong earnings last night (+12% pre-mkt) eased AI spending concerns. Apple fell -7% on weak guidance, while $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) and $Meta Platforms(META.US) gained. $Tesla(TSLA.US) +1.5% after the WSJ reported that TSLA is considering a potential separation of its China business to pave the way for a possible merger with $SpaceX(SPCX.US). $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US) +4% after beating 2Q rev and EBITDA estimates and guiding to stronger FY’26 results on the initial strength of R2 SUV sales, RIVN’s cheaper $45K SUV that started deliveries in June. The chip rally followed Citadel buying discounted positions from the giant Situational Awareness hedge fund, which lost half its assets. Hyperscaler FY’26 AI CapEx guidance rose only modestly to ~$730B from $700B previously.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) Looked an numbers today. Business looked clean.

AI server giant Quanta Computer plans to raise up to US$2.2 billion (NT$71.2B) through a GDS (Global Depositary Share) offering in Luxembourg, media report, the biggest overseas fundraising by a Taiwan firm in nearly 20-years, media report, with the funds to be used for factory construction, component and materials purchases, more. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) #Quanta #AIservers

Source: Dan Nystedt

Re-acquired some $Meta Platforms(META.US). After reducing positions in $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), holding steady. Overweight position in $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) remains unchanged; memory sector has suffered significant losses this round, so I'm ignoring it. For hardware, selling new high calls on sharp rallies; current assessment is that hardware is unlikely to return to June highs. Focus for H2 is on major cloud providers; both Meta and Google show desire to increase positions. Main thoughts and assessments: The narrative of commoditization of models is strengthening, and the competitive-cooperative relationship between cloud and frontier models has entered a stage of mutually beneficial achievement. Overall, cloud may have the upper hand.

Key points from $Amazon(AMZN.US) earnings call:

$Meta Platforms(META.US) likely to follow $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)’s trajectory after missing estimates last week - down -10% after the print, and then a quick recovery (+5% so far) as investors came to realize the results adjusted for one time items weren’t bad, and the slightly negative near-term guidance was management taking its usual conservative stance. The main difference between the two businesses - GOOG revs come mostly from search, META mainly from advertising - are punctuated by GOOG having a surging cloud business and highly popular chat bot (Gemini), while META has neither.

📢 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗡: $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Google Unveils Gemini Robotics ER 2 With Multi-Robot Collaboration and Advanced Planning

Breaking: The Magnificent 7 have lost over ~$4,500,000,000,000 of market capitalization from their all-time highs

BofA: AI LLMs

📢 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗡: Oracle Expands Google Cloud Partnership, Integrates Gemini AI Into Enterprise Applications - $Oracle(ORCL.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

MSFT FY4Q26 First Take. Amid an earnings deluge this read is a touch late, but the takeaway is clear: the leadership rotation has swung back in Microsoft's favor. Four key points:

1) Azure re-acceleration: the Jun quarter grew 43% YoY. Guidance points to 45% next quarter, with 2H growth running ahead of 1H.

2) Capex did not spike: spend was $41bn this quarter, with next quarter guided to $50bn. That implies CY 4Q at approx. $52bn and keeps the run-rate on track for CY2026 capex of ~$200bn including leases. For FY2027, management still guides to YoY growth.

A small wrinkle: by extending useful lives on long-duration assets, some items now qualify as operating leases and no longer count toward capex. This technically lowers CY2026 reported capex to ~$175bn.

3) Making money: with AI a bigger mix in cloud, GPM should have compressed, yet the actual pullback was modest. Higher revenue amplified operating leverage and drove a sharp decline in opex ratio, helped by ~5k headcount reductions this fiscal year. As a result, margins rose rather than fell.

Note an important timing point: Microsoft began ramping capex in 2Q23 and has kept it elevated for three years, but D&A remains light, with the latest quarter even down YoY. Early capex skewed to long-lived assets and useful lives were extended this time, delaying expense recognition. Starting in 3Q25, however, shorter-cycle assets like servers will be purchased in size, so the depreciation headwind has yet to fully bite.

4) Cash to spare: unlike Alphabet, Tesla, and Meta, whose aggressive spend has strained cash flows, Microsoft's cash capex excluding finance leases remains in the $30–35bn range. Based on the qualitative capex guide and revenue trajectory, free cash flow should stay positive in the new fiscal year.

Overall, Microsoft posted a 'help-yourself' quarter in a market that is turning cautious on AI infrastructure spending elsewhere. Growth, margins, and cash are all in place, and in today's setup and risk appetite, the long-awaited rotation has finally come back to Microsoft. $Microsoft(MSFT.US)

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)'s AI capex is paying off. Q4 Earnings:

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)Google‘s disappointing new model performance has once again raised doubts about its AI execution. But the bigger issue is not technology itself — it’s whether AI can actually translate into revenue growth.

Google still has strong foundations through Search, Cloud, and its massive data advantage. The market doesn‘t need another AI story; it needs proof that these investments can generate real profits. Until monetization becomes clearer, sentiment may remain pressured despite its long-term potential.

@Captain's Treasure

⚡ 𝐔𝐏𝐃𝐀𝐓𝐄: $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Google reportedly pledged up to $44 billion in guarantees for data‑center leases

$Meta Platforms(META.US) announced on its website a strategic partnership with BlackRock to invest in a data center campus. The two will form a JV to own the El Paso data center.

To be clear, this is not a brand-new build; it is one of Meta’s five in-house data centers planned years ago, located in El Paso, TX, with 1GW of capacity. It is slated to go live in 2028. So the news marks incremental progress within the existing campus plan.

The campus is expected to cost $14bn in total (land, buildings, grid, cooling systems, etc.). BlackRock will shoulder ~80% of the funding, and Meta ~20%. The setup closely mirrors the Meta–Blue Owl structure announced last year; see Dolphin Research’s schematic.

Overall, this structure reduces Meta’s visible on-balance-sheet burden while financing what is essentially a 1P, in-house data center. Yesterday, in our capex take on $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), we also highlighted its off-balance-sheet approach to scaling compute capacity.

This has become a common Big Tech playbook to meet infra needs without spooking the market. We should incorporate these off-balance-sheet obligations into risk assessments. That said, this works mainly for giants with strong core businesses which, beyond providing guarantees, are effectively monetizing their high-quality credit.

source: Jensen Huang / X

The Rundown: Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and 47 other tech companies, VCs, and nonprofits just signed an open letter urging Washington not to restrict open-weight AI models — giving a bunch of reasons why it’s crucial to U.S. AI leadership.

The details:

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang first shared the letter, his first post on X, with 25 signatories but a few crucial ones missing, including OpenAI.

In a day, the letter garnered widespread support, with signatories doubling as OpenAI, Google, AMD, Cisco, and others joined — but not Anthropic.

The letter argues that open weights expand access to the AI economy, keep competition alive, broaden cyber defense, and help avoid vendor lock-in.

It also notes that distillation should not be confused with misappropriation and calls to avoid premature restrictions that push AI innovation overseas.

Why it matters: The letter comes amid accusations that Chinese labs extracted intelligence from U.S. models, including Anthropic’s Fable. Washington’s response remains unclear, but the pressure is on the lone U.S. frontier lab off the list, the one to gain most from a crackdown. And people are already asking for answers.

What does this mean to the roller coaster, across the board, for about 3 weeks by now?