$Tesla(TSLA.US) remains the worst YTD performer (-20%) of all Mag 8 stocks, with only $Meta Platforms(META.US) (-15% YTD) which is facing an existential threat to its core business given a $1.4 trillion consumer liability trial that got underway this week also in the red. NDX overall is up +16% YTD, fueled by $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) (+16%), $Apple(AAPL.US) (+15%.), and $Amazon(AMZN.US) (+12%). TSLA’s troubles are due to lower than expected auto gross margins in its core EV business and a slower than expected scale up of its unsupervised autonomy efforts due to efficacy and safety concerns/an abundance of caution.
Like tobacco litigation 30 years ago, $Meta Platforms(META.US) is being sued by California and a multi-state coalition of attorneys general who have argued that $Meta Platforms(META.US) designed Facebook and Instagram to be addictive to children and teens, improperly collected their data, and misled the public about the platforms' safety. The trial in federal court in Oakland before U.S. Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers who was appointed by Barack Obama is likely to overhang the stock until the advisory jury renders a verdict in October. The advisory jury is hearing the evidence and issues a verdict; the judge is the ultimate decision-maker on liability, penalties, and remedies. On appeal, the case would go to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, which is widely viewed as one of the more liberal circuits in the U.S. federal court system. In the spring, Meta (along with $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) ‘s YouTube) lost a landmark social media case in California, in which a jury found the companies liable for harming a young user with certain design features in their apps and awarded her $6 million. Then, earlier this month, $Meta Platforms(META.US) was ordered to pay more than $940 million in the state of New Mexico for being a public nuisance and causing psychological harm to children. In the current state AG case in Oakland the plaintiffs are asking for compensatory and punitive damages which could total $1.4 trillion, essentially equal to META’s market cap.
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Four Trading Days to NVIDIA's Earnings: Why Haven't the Options "Scalpers" Raised Their Prices?
IV at 44% versus HV at 38%, sitting right at the one-year median — options markets are pricing NVIDIA's earnings with surprising calm.
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$Apple(AAPL.US) While other 'Magnificent Seven' companies spend big on AI, Apple's more conservative strategy has turned the stock into a valuable portfolio hedge against volatility. Apple's "business is built on a consumer hardware and services ecosystem rather than cloud infrastructure or ad-supported platforms." Analysts have speculated for months that Apple could be one of the most resilient Big Tech names. While Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet pour hundreds of billions of dollars into capital expenditures for AI initiatives, Apple hasn't participated in the same level of spending. Earlier attempts to roll out Apple Intelligence back in 2024 largely failed, leading many to see the company as an AI laggard. But Apple's "go-slow" strategy comes in handy on days when investor concerns about AI overspending flare up, insulating the stock from downturns that hit the semiconductor space. By focusing on its hardware products instead of chasing emerging AI technologies, Apple has grown its installed base to over 2.5 billion active devices. As a result, the company now has an unrivaled distribution network to monetize on-device. This is the main reason why I'm holding on to my position in Apple. In the new AI era, Apple has managed to stay relatively competitive even when it does not engage in the AI war with the other Mag 7 companies. I will be looking to add if the share price retraces back to around $280. @Captain's Treasure
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - D
MRVL: Subsidized tie-up with GOOGL—can it chip away at AVGO?
Marvell announced it issued warrants to Alphabet for the first time, sending its shares up 10%+.
Meanwhile, AVGO sold off, reflecting fears that $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) could win Alphabet's TPU orders.Here, Dolphin Research walks through both companies' deal structures and the implications.
We summarize the key terms and potential impact below.1) Marvell–Alphabet agreement
First, the specific arrangement Marvell signed with Alphabet: the commercial agreement was executed on Jul 29, 2026...MarvellHot topic - D
TSLA launches Doubao LLM; JD ramps up AI robotics | Daily News Recap
0820 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry — 1) U.S. Treasury data show that as of Tue close, U.S. public debt outstanding reached $40.05TN, breaching $40TN for the first time. The structural expansion of Gov. debt implies a persistently rising UST supply.
Combined with the earlier move higher in long-end yields, this further pressures valuations across global risk assets. Markets will keep fretting about fiscal sustainability, pushing up term premia and favoring gold and other havens.Growth-stock multiples face headwinds. Watch the UST issuance calendar and shifts in demand from Intl long-only funds...Today’s Key News Recap - E
Meritz Securities: CSPs flooding requests to secure HBM supply for 2028.
$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $DRAM $Micron Tech(MU.US) $EWY - O
FeaturedBeginner's Guide: Finding Value in the Magnificent 7
.Beginner's Guide: Finding Value in the Magnificent 7Part 1: Ranking the Mag 7 by Valuation — Who's Actually Cheap?The "Magnificent 8" — [stock Apple], [stock Microsoft], [stock Alphabet], [stock Amaz...
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - A
BREAKING: Marvell $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) has issued $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) a warrant to buy up to 58.97M shares at $206.58, equal to about 6.7% of shares outstanding.
The partnership expands Marvel’s work to custom silicon programs that attach to the TPU ecosystem. Jensen did say it was going to a trillion 😂Source: amit
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30-year yields are spiking！VIX Settlement + OPEX Set the Stage for Volatility.
The 30-year Treasury yield briefly surged to 5.34% overnight, its highest level since 2007, as a wave of investment-grade bond issuance from tech giants to fund AI infrastructure absorbed liquidity. T...
Ceasefire Expired, Brent Near $90. Now What? - C
Featured💡The Anthropic-OpenAI Revenue Gap: What You Need to Know？
Anthropic has just surpassed OpenAI in quarterly revenue for the first time, with revenue more than doubling — just three months ago, OpenAI was still the clear leader.The year-over-year numbers look ...
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$Carmax(KMX.US)#Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards
### Trade Recap
My CarMax (KMX) position shows a 1.01% unrealized loss, with an entry cost of $58.235 and a current price of $57.500. The minor pullback moved in line with broad softness across consumer cyclical stocks, as traders reassessed the recovery pace of the US used-vehicle retail market. No company-specific negative news drove the dip; it largely reflects cautious near-term sentiment over auto loan rates and vehicle affordability. I kept the full position intact through the session, treating this mild retreat as normal trading noise rather than a trend break.
### Investment Insight
This small drawdown delivers a straightforward lesson: cyclical recoveries never advance in a straight line. Even when the long-term restructuring thesis stays solid, short-term sentiment shifts can easily produce 1–2% daily swings. Overtrading on such minor fluctuations only racks up transaction costs and eats into potential returns. For retail cyclical trades, patience pays off; real turning points show up in quarterly sales and margin data, not in single-day price moves.
### Risk Control Strategy
I cap KMX at 7% of my total portfolio to contain auto-cycle concentration risk. A 5% hard stop-loss from my cost basis is active to limit downside if the used-car market worsens further. I will not average down on small dips; extra capital will only be deployed if upcoming earnings reports confirm improving unit economics and stabilizing inventory conditions. (Word count: 292)$Carmax(KMX.US)$Grab(GRAB.US)$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - A
Rumor: Intel Malaysia took over some advanced packaging for TSMC due to a surge in orders for CoWoS packaging by a major mutual client, media report, adding ASE, Unimicron, Gudeng Precision and others are also expected to benefit from the move. TSMC is expected to ship more advanced chips as the packaging bottleneck eases. $Intel(INTC.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) #semiconductors
Source: Dan Nystedt
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Three of Taiwan’s top chip design houses have invested in new data centers for more R&D compute, media report:
-MediaTek (smartphone chips, custom ASICs, more): Opened the first of three phases at its new Tongluo R&D data center in May, aimed at R&D across AI and high performance computing, advanced node chip designs and advanced packaging.-Global Unichip (GUC, custom ASICs, more): Its Zhunan data center began trials in the 2nd quarter and is for chip design work on advanced 3nm, 2nm and below nodes, custom ASICs and advanced packaging design.-Novatek (custom ASICs, more): Broke ground July 28 on an NT$2.9B R&D data center for own product designs and custom ASIC design service. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) #semiconductorsSource: Dan Nystedt
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Watching $Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls on X is like watching a table of college students at a bar whooping it up as they down Tequila shots. As my wife observing them recently said to me: “They think they’re doing something.”
And so it is with $Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls. Despite no evidence the new Cybercab can drive itself flawlessly without safety monitors, bulls are again whooping it up as if TSLA has alone solved for unsupervised autonomy and the Cybercab now drives itself at 99.999% efficacy (1 critical disengagement per 10,000 miles). I fully believe TSLA will be one of the first to solve for generalized (go anywhere) unsupervised autonomy, but so will others ($Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Baidu(BIDU.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US), $WeRide(WRD.US), $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)).As anyone with an X account can clearly see from the videos where autonomous Teslas still require supervision and disengagement, until @elonmusk puts on the road Cybercabs without safety monitors and scales it to cities not already mapped out TSLA stock will remain moribund as it has been for the past five years ($Tesla(TSLA.US) +51%, NDX +98%) despite bulls cheering it on every chance they get. - G
WSJ: off-balance-sheet commitments across nine big tech filings
> Total: roughly $3.0T, mostly AI related, sourced from filing footnotes
> Composition: $1.2T uncommenced leases + $1.9T purchase commitments (chips, equipment, energy, services)
> $Meta Platforms(META.US) : $347B future lease commitments
> $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) : $811B purchase and contractual obligations
> $Oracle(ORCL.US) : off-balance-sheet lease commitments up about 30x in four years
Note: the $1.2T uncommenced lease figure is roughly 4x the prior year disclosure. None of it is undisclosed. It sits in the footnotes.
Meta's $1.4 Trillion Trial Opens. Priced In? - A
$AppLovin(APP.US)
Talked to a former Applovin employee over the weekend, here’s some of his thoughts:- Applovin’s business has been ads within mobile games. It is very profitable, 1B people per day play games, and $Meta Platforms(META.US) or $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) have not been able to break their moat. But, growth rates have slowed down from 70% to now 55% which is incredible, but not good enough for the street because they don’t see the TAM expanding yet. - Mobile gaming opportunity is large but viewed as saturated and very high growth rates likely aren’t sustainable in this one category.- Company has guided to keeping their growth at 30%+ but the decline in YoY growth rates have hurt sentiment. Applovin can change this by showing their Ecom expansion can increase the TAM but the company has failed to meaningfully show this which is why the stock has been stuck. The Q2 call didn’t really address the TAM expansion either which is why the stock has been falling so rapidly since then. - He said management is exceptional and understands what they are doing, it’s not a team to bet against, but the problem is the street is not convinced their growth can expand beyond gaming yet. He himself is also not fully convinced and feels ready to sell a significant portion of stock if the Q after holiday season doesn’t show the TAM expanding beyond mobile games.- He also said the short reports are pretty much just noise. Nothing ever serious has come from them and they aren’t rooted in anything real.Stock is down 50% YTD…obviously looks like a bargain and I wonder how much lower the street can send it. Only major software large cap that hasn’t recovered…is anyone buying it here?Source: amit
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Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) continues to solidify its role as a premier infrastructure backbone of the artificial intelligence boom. Currently trading around $392.99, the stock has generated notable traction following massive multi-year AI supply commitments from tech hyperscalers like Alphabet (Google), Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Rather than directly fighting Nvidia in the GPU arena, Broadcom dominates the specialized market for custom AI accelerators (ASICs/XPUs) and high-performance networking technology, where management expects AI semiconductor revenue to exceed $100 billion by fiscal year 2027. This explosive demand is backed by an impressive backlog of new bookings exceeding $30 billion, giving the company stellar long-term revenue visibility into 2028.
Despite its stellar core fundamentals, investors should keep a close eye on emerging structural shifts and risk factors. While its custom chip business grew at a staggering 143% year-over-year pace to $10.8 billion last quarter, the stock has experienced recent volatility over its massive off-balance-sheet AI chip-financing vehicle. Analysts note that this specialized financing arm could carry up to $370 billion in senior debt by 2029. Though technically decentralized from Broadcom’s primary balance sheet, the company’s contingent multi-billion-dollar backstop on customer lease obligations creates a unique layer of customer concentration and credit risk if capital expenditures among tech giants start to cool.
Valuation-wise, AVGO remains an incredibly compelling narrative for growth-oriented portfolios. The stock trades at roughly 24.3 times forward earnings for fiscal 2027, making it remarkably cheaper than many of its high-flying semiconductor peers. For long-term investors looking to play the next phase of data center expansions without bearing extreme valuation risk, Broadcom presents a powerhouse setup heading into its upcoming September 2026 earnings report.
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - E
WSJ: Nine top tech companies had some $3 trillion of off-balance-sheet commitments mostly related to AI.
A lot of spending going into this buildout...$Meta Platforms(META.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) - V
I looked up how Duan Yongping and lilu, two big shots, handled $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US).
I prefer lilu's kind of operation.
The operations are very few; in all these years, they only sold once. 👍🏻
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TSMC Arizona’s 2nm fab may arrive as much as four-quarters earlier than expected, media report, amid speedy progress on the chip giant’s 3rd fab (P3) in Phoenix.
The 2nd fab is also ahead of schedule, with equipment set to be installed in the 2nd half of 2026 (now), and mass production expected in the 2nd half of 2027. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) #semiconductors #ArizonaSource: Dan Nystedt