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TSMC clients like Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom are vying for advanced processes as TSMC ramps up capacity, media report:
-TSMC 3nm now seen at 180,000 wafer starts per month by early 4th quarter vs prior target end-26-2nm seen at 100,000wpm by year-end. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US)Source: Dan Nystedt
Nvidia Senior VP Gilad Shainer said Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) has entered mass production to meet the massive data throughput and speeds required by Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform, which is at least 3x faster than GB300, media report, noting the bandwidth performance of scale-up (intra-rack/chip interconnection) will be 10x that of scale out (inter-rack data center networking). Switches developed by Nvidia and partners have already been sent to key clients and deployed at Nvidia. Shainer is head of R&D for Nvidia InfiniBand and Ethernet high-speed transmission technologies. The announcement is seen as Nvidia’s answer to industry researchers that have recently said broad deployment of CPO might be delayed until 2028-2029 due to heat challenges and complex ASIC integration. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US)
Source: Dan Nystedt
Jensen Huang: "no HBM for you, I need HBM!"
Overall Market & Demand Growth> Massive Expansion: Total HBM demand is projected to scale dramatically, reaching over 6 million k GB (approx. 48,618 mn Gb) by 2027.> Rapid Multi-Year Trajectory: Historical and projected growth shows a steep upward curve from 2023 through 2027, driven heavily by increasing deployment in AI GPUs and AI ASICs.NVIDIA's Market Dominance> Leading Consumer: NVIDIA remains the single largest consumer of HBM supply, commanding the largest share of the demand stack in 2027.> Key Products: High-demand products like the Rubin R200 stand out with massive total HBM demand (projected at over $1.7 million k GB), utilizing advanced HBM4 12hi configurations.> CoWoS Allocation: NVIDIA dominates advanced packaging allocations, notably with massive wafer distributions for products like the Vera CPU and Rubin series.Key Competitors and Ecosystem Players> Google: Google represents a massive portion of the AI ASIC HBM demand, particularly driven by TPU lines such as the TPU v8i (Sunfish), which demands over 1.1 million k GB of HBM.> AMD: Competes strongly with advanced offerings like the MI455 and MI350 series, utilizing HBM3e and HBM4 configurations sourced primarily through Samsung and Micron.> Cloud Service Providers (ASICs): Other major tech giants like AWS (Trainium 3) and Microsoft (Maia 300) account for significant shares of the total specialized hardware demand footprint.> NVIDIA holds the largest single share of projected HBM consumption at 36%.> Google represents a massive segment of demand at 35%, nearly matching NVIDIA due to its heavy reliance on custom TPU deployments.> AMD follows as the third-largest consumer with 16% of the market share.> AWS accounts for 5%, GUC's customers make up 3%, while Microsoft and Meta each take 2% of the projected 2027 consumption.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $DRAM $EWY
Nvidia's announcement of co-packaged optics entering mass production provides a boost to optical communications.
"Gilad Shainer, Senior Vice President of NVIDIA, announced that Co-Package Optics (CPO) has entered mass production." "According to foreign media reports, Gilad Shainer announced at a recent technology forum that CPO has begun mass production. Switches developed by Nvidia in collaboration with its supply chain have been delivered to close customers and are also being deployed at Nvidia's own facilities. It is expected that a large number of switches with CPO technology will be introduced into AI factories around the world this year."
Notes on $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) ahead of Q2 earnings next week:
For the TLDR thesis: $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) is the only Western vertically integrated transceiver maker with its own InP laser fab pointed directly at the 800G/1.6T ramp. Currently undergoing capacity expansions in Texas, so if the capacity lands, the revenue is essentially pre-sold due to the demand/supply gap. Everything else, like a high multiple / dilution risk / CPO timelines is secondary noise to whether $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) can actually build modules fast enough.On the Q1 call, CEO said: “the actual demand is not $1.1B, it is $1.4-1.5B” with the FY guide raised only to “exceed $1.1B” revenue because production and supply chains are their cap right now.Therefore, given that demand > supply, $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) then becomes a bet on manufacturing execution. I.e. can $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) take 800G/1.6T capacity from ~100,000 modules/month (in Q1) to >650,000/month by Y/E and ~930,000/month by the end of 2027? Since I’m not an insider, I have no idea. But if they ramp up, both revenue and margins inflect.Also, I personally feel like most $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) bear posts I read are over-indexing on customer concentration and dilution, while under pricing their one properly differentiated asset: the laser fab.Everyone is short InP.InnoLight, Eoptolink, and the entire merchant module base buy their EMLs from a handful of suppliers. Mainly $Lumentum(LITE.US) and $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US). Who themselves are capacity constrained and locked in their supply via the $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) investment back in March. Even $Fabrinet(FN.US) mentioned that their datacom line is capped by component and material supply e.g. lasers, DSPs, ASICs, and not demand.Whereas $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) is the one player in Western supply chains that makes its own EMLs on its own tools and is expanding that laser fab by ~4x heading into 2027.In Q1, the CFO said: “equipment availability has not been a problem to date because most of this equipment is developed in-house… which means that we are not generally in direct competition with other similar companies for supply.”So in a world short of lasers, vertical integration essentially means that $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) can actually ship while merchants can’t.That’s also why the tariff overlay matters more than you think because the bulk of global transceiver assembly sits in China. For U.S. hyperscalers, a U.S. laser fab supplier is an effective procurement hedge with no Chinese peers. Chinese modules still undercut on price by ~20-25%, so this is a security/supply argument rather than a cost saving one. Which is the structural reason why $Amazon(AMZN.US) and $Microsoft(MSFT.US) engaged in the first place, and is why $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US)’s Texas expansion is genuinely strategic rather than vanity capex like many people have feared with the AI infra buildout.That said, 800G is still tiny: in Q1, it was just 5.6% of DC revenue, with the quarter carried by 100G (41% of DC) and 200G/400G (46.7%). The “800G ramp” is a forward event that should begin showing up slightly in Q2, but a lot more materially in Q3.For this reason, I believe that the Q2 numbers will be “disappointing” to a bunch of people who are bullish. For context, management explicitly told everyone H1 is only about 1/3 of the FY, and that the “significantly larger ramp” starts in “Q3 as additional capacity comes online.”So, a “weak” Q2 wouldn’t be a warning signal if optical margins are soft. Really, the only number that matters is Q3 guidance and the 800G unit trajectory.If $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) guides Q3 to the 60-80% sequential growth, that just confirms 800G becoming their largest DC rev line, with 1.6T beginning to contribute. Obviously, if the Q3 guide is soft, the capacity conversion story I talked about slips, and then we rightly have to look back at management and their prior track record of overpromising / disappointing shareholders.Imo, these are the things to watch in order:1. Q3 revenue guide2. 800G revenue and unit shipments3. Gross margin vs. the 29-30% guide + any reiteration of the Y/E ~35% targetDisclosure — I have a position in $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US).
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)
Still holding NVIDIA and staying patient. Short-term price swings don’t change my conviction. As AI adoption continues to expand across industries, I believe the long-term opportunity is far bigger than today’s market noise. Happy to stay invested and let time do the heavy lifting.
🎙️ @StudyFetch made its largest AI inference workload nearly 10x less expensive with NVIDIA Riva, Parakeet ASR and NVIDIA NIM microservices.
The gains support voice tutoring, real-time personalization and a new agentic learning platform.Source: NVIDIA_X
Most of the Mag 7 companies have already reported earnings and they were evenly matched, with half of them impressing while the other half flopping. Microsoft and Amazon are set to set new best records up in a single trading day as the AI reversal demand is very much back underway.
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Microsoft Sets a $450 Billion Record as Memory Chips Roar Back
Microsoft (MSFT) just made stock-market history. Shares surged about 15% Thursday, adding roughly $450B in market cap in a single day, the largest one-day dollar gain for any stock ever, beating Nvidi...
MSFT +15% and +$450B in one day isn’t hype, it’s proof Azure AI is printing money at scale. That beat Nvidia’s record because enterprises are paying, not just building. Semis +8-9% with MU, SNDK, SKHY all double digits means memory pricing has bottomed and the July washout is over. AMZN/AAPL/META mixed just shows the market can tell winners from spenders now.
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Microsoft Sets a $450 Billion Record as Memory Chips Roar Back
Microsoft (MSFT) just made stock-market history. Shares surged about 15% Thursday, adding roughly $450B in market cap in a single day, the largest one-day dollar gain for any stock ever, beating Nvidi...
Congrats to all who saw the great discounts and grabbed the wonderful bargains. These kind of great sales happen once a year and it was about time for it to happen!
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Microsoft Sets a $450 Billion Record as Memory Chips Roar Back
Microsoft (MSFT) just made stock-market history. Shares surged about 15% Thursday, adding roughly $450B in market cap in a single day, the largest one-day dollar gain for any stock ever, beating Nvidi...
Well look at that. See what I mean when everyone wants to buy at the same time? Great discounts don’t last forever. The most daring first buyers who recognise value benefits the most. 😊
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Microsoft Sets a $450 Billion Record as Memory Chips Roar Back
Microsoft (MSFT) just made stock-market history. Shares surged about 15% Thursday, adding roughly $450B in market cap in a single day, the largest one-day dollar gain for any stock ever, beating Nvidi...
Many of the recent movements should be treated as noise. For investors, company fundamentals and sector growth and health should be the anchor for proper investment (not trading)
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Microsoft Sets a $450 Billion Record as Memory Chips Roar Back
Microsoft (MSFT) just made stock-market history. Shares surged about 15% Thursday, adding roughly $450B in market cap in a single day, the largest one-day dollar gain for any stock ever, beating Nvidi...
Markets are moving beyond AI hype, with greater focus on execution and measurable outcomes from AI investments. Companies that convert AI spending into sustainable revenue, earnings and cash flow are being rewarded, while those with uncertain returns face more demanding standards.
Singapore stocks pulled back as profit-taking in the banking sector weighed on the STI, but the move appears to be a healthy consolidation rather than a trend reversal. Singapore equities continue to offer long-term value, supported by stable earnings, attractive dividends and sound economic fundamentals.Fundamentals drive long-term performance, with patient investors using market pullbacks as opportunities to accumulate quality stocks
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Microsoft Sets a $450 Billion Record as Memory Chips Roar Back
Microsoft (MSFT) just made stock-market history. Shares surged about 15% Thursday, adding roughly $450B in market cap in a single day, the largest one-day dollar gain for any stock ever, beating Nvidi...
Markets still have a lot to digest. Strong GDP and PCE keep the Fed cautious, while BOJ decisions and Middle East tensions could drive volatility. I’ll stay patient and focus on quality names instead of chasing moves.
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Microsoft Sets a $450 Billion Record as Memory Chips Roar Back
Microsoft (MSFT) just made stock-market history. Shares surged about 15% Thursday, adding roughly $450B in market cap in a single day, the largest one-day dollar gain for any stock ever, beating Nvidi...
Wonder why the bank stocks are up, isn’t this anticipation of rate hike too extreme?
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Microsoft Sets a $450 Billion Record as Memory Chips Roar Back
Microsoft (MSFT) just made stock-market history. Shares surged about 15% Thursday, adding roughly $450B in market cap in a single day, the largest one-day dollar gain for any stock ever, beating Nvidi...
Add
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Microsoft Sets a $450 Billion Record as Memory Chips Roar Back
Microsoft (MSFT) just made stock-market history. Shares surged about 15% Thursday, adding roughly $450B in market cap in a single day, the largest one-day dollar gain for any stock ever, beating Nvidi...
Overall, I am quite disappointed with MPACT earnings yesterday. It’s a surprise results. I never expect its overseas assets performance got worsen.
Elsewhere, Keppel Corp was dragged down by impairment charges on older legacy assets while SIA took a hit from high energy costs. It is a very tough operating environment now with so much uncertainty everywhere.
I am also worried by the latest China manufacturing PMI reading of 49.2, back in contraction territory. I am thinking why these factories are not ramping up orders for the upcoming holiday season like Christmas, yet activity is slowing instead. That really makes me wonder what’s going on. 🤔
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Microsoft Sets a $450 Billion Record as Memory Chips Roar Back
Microsoft (MSFT) just made stock-market history. Shares surged about 15% Thursday, adding roughly $450B in market cap in a single day, the largest one-day dollar gain for any stock ever, beating Nvidi...
Just as I predicted, chip and semiconductors stocks are going up again. I’m glad I didn’t sell off my tech stocks. Sometimes it just feels like there is some invisible hand moving the market for no good reason other than to shake off weak hands.
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Microsoft Sets a $450 Billion Record as Memory Chips Roar Back
Microsoft (MSFT) just made stock-market history. Shares surged about 15% Thursday, adding roughly $450B in market cap in a single day, the largest one-day dollar gain for any stock ever, beating Nvidi...
Microsoft (MSFT) just made stock-market history. Shares surged about 15% Thursday, adding roughly $450B in market cap in a single day, the largest one-day dollar gain for any stock ever, beating Nvidi...