AXS 1.5X NVDA Bear Daily ETF

NVIDIA DISCLOSES 122M SHARE STAKE IN SPACEX WORTH $17B.

It looks like this is from the $10B xAI investment Nvidia made back in January which has now converted into SpaceX shares.

Elon last week said that SpaceX will exclusively be working with Nvidia chips.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $SpaceX(SPCX.US)

Source: amit

NVIDIA BUYS 122M SHARES OF SPACEX, $21B STAKE

Elon last week: “We are exclusively using Nvidia chips.”

bffs 🥰

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $SpaceX(SPCX.US)

Source: amit

Breaking: Citadel Advisors just filed its Q2 2026 13F

Here's everything you need to know about the recent 13F

Top 10 positions:

• SPDR S&P 500 ETF $SPY [Call] (4.1%)

• Invesco QQQ Trust $QQQ [Put] (3.0%)

• Invesco QQQ Trust $QQQ [Call] (2.7%)

• SPDR S&P 500 ETF $SPY [Put] (2.7%)

• Micron Technology $Micron Tech(MU.US) [Put] (2.5%)

• Micron Technology $Micron Tech(MU.US) [Call] (1.9%)

• Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US) [Call] (1.6%)

• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF $IVV (1.5%)

• Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) [Call] (1.4%)

• SanDisk $Sandisk(SNDK.US) [Put] (1.3%)

Top 10 new positions (by $ size):

• SpaceX [Call]

• SpaceX [Put]

• Roundhill Memory ETF $MEM [Call]

• SpaceX (equity)

• Roundhill Memory ETF $MEM [Put]

• Cerebras Systems (equity)

• Madison Air Solutions

• Cerebras Systems [Call]

• Cerebras Systems [Put]

• Quantinuum

Top 10 full exits (by prior $ size):

• Western Digital note

• Live Nation note

• Coterra Energy $Coterra Energy(CTRA.US)

• Clearwater Analytics $Clearwater Analytics(CWAN.US)

• Honeywell $Honeywell Tech(HON.US) [Call]

• Terns Pharmaceuticals $Terns Pharmaceuticals(TERN.US)

• Carnival $Carnival(CCL.US) [Put]

• Honeywell $Honeywell Tech(HON.US) [Put]

• Carnival $Carnival(CCL.US) (equity)

• Honeywell $Honeywell Tech(HON.US) (equity)

Summary: Citadel's book grew 41.5% to $875.1B this quarter

Impressive...but at the same time hard to believe that by 2029, the market share for GPUs will be ~21% compared to ~79% for ASICs. Also implying a 17.5% market share for Nvidia lol.

I don't buy that a single bit.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US)

BofA: AI Compute

> Total Market Size: The total Data Center Systems TAM is projected to reach $2.2Tn in 2030E.

> AI vs. Non-AI Split:

AI Data Center Systems TAM accounts for the vast majority at $1.8Tn.

Non-AI DC Systems TAM accounts for $384bn (with Trad'l Cloud CPU representing ~$30bn of that value).

> AI Servers & Infrastructure Breakdown: Within the $1.8Tn AI Data Center TAM, AI Servers make up $1.4Tn, alongside $310bn for AI Networking and $85bn for Storage.

> AI Server Component Breakdown ($1.4Tn Total):

AI Accelerators: $1.1Tn

HBM (High-Bandwidth Memory): $277bn

AI CPUs: $180bn total value, which splits roughly 50/50 between AI Cluster Compute/Head Nodes ($90bn) and AI Agentic Standalone Nodes ($90bn).

Other: $53bn

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Dell Tech(DELL.US) $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)

Photonics notes after $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US), and $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) earnings:

TLDR: Earnings were bullish for photonics. The entire sector is sold out and LTAs are removing cyclicality.

1. Everything is sold out

Every single CEO highlighted that demand is strong and growing, with current revenues/margins mainly gated by limited capacity.

- $Lumentum(LITE.US): “Lasers will remain effectively sold out for the foreseeable future despite our rapid capacity expansion.”

- $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US): “The demand is robust across almost every single product across data center and comms, and it is really just a matter of whether we can sell as fast as we can ramp production.”

- $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US): Revenue “bounded almost entirely by our production capacity and key component availability”

Very nice and very expected. But good to have confirmations from the horse's mouth.

I also wanted to remind everyone that historically, optics has been a deflationary business mainly due to ASP erosion over time. Similar to memory.

However, everyone being sold out completely flips that with Lumentum saying that they’ve “been surprised at our ability to price up” on CW lasers, holding a premium on spec tightness because of better transceiver yields.

Filtering down onto margins, when ASPs go up, gross margin rebuilds organically without any product mix help at all.

For example, Lumentum crossing to over 50% non-GAAP GM is a pricing power story instead of one “artificially” inflated by selling more pricey products.

At a high level, that’s a good sign of further margin expansion further down the line.

2. LTAs

Lumentum has customer LTAs extending through to 2030 with minimum demand guarantees and set pricing. AAOI is similarly negotiating three year laser LTAs with 2-3 large customers.

TLDR: These LTAs are critical for the longer term durability of the optics sector.

Ultimately, customer-funded capacity is negative working capital expansion, which highlights that the optics buyers are the ones bidding up for scarcity.

The Lumentum and $AXT(AXTI.US) deal from a couple of weeks ago is a pretty clean example where $87.5M of Lumentum deposits applied as shipment credits, reserving substrates through to 2031.

We're now seeing this pattern is everywhere e.g. hyperscalers pre-funding supplier capex in exchange for allocation, transferring volume risk onto the buyer. This is the same dynamic at a higher level with $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)’s $500B financing announcement to support “independent compute financing platforms”.

So, the whole AI buildout is shifting capex risk onto customers and capital markets. In optics that means suppliers get to expand capacity with someone else's balance sheet and a contractual demand floor.

That’s the best terms any capital intensive company can get and, as we're seeing, acts as a huge incentive to ramp capacity as fast as possible.

3. 1.6T ramp

Lumentum: 1.6T is “ramping incredibly fast. In fact, we have seen the 1.6T ramp only pull in, be stronger, demand increase. That ramp is even faster than what we thought, say, three months ago.”

With ~80% YoY laser output feeding it, Lumentum guided data center growth “to exceed 80%” this quarter. They initiated 1.6T production as planned and the CEO stated that “we appear to be first to market in many instances, ahead of larger competitors” with a signal-integrity team “widely acknowledged as the best in a competitive field.”

AAOI is the fourth supplier qualified for 1.6T at a major hyperscaler, qualification finishing “within the next couple of weeks” and a >$200M order book which looks to be just the start with the $471M monthly transceiver revenue by mid-2027 maintained from last quarter.

At 800G the laser was the binding constraint. At 1.6T it's the 3nm DSPs and the 200G TIAs and drivers. AAOI's management specifically said that the bigger constraint now is DSP and TIA supply, not lasers, because they make their own lasers (“good news, they are making our laser. Otherwise, laser is the biggest bottleneck”).

Does this then make $MRV and $Broadcom(AVGO.US), plus the TIA/driver suppliers $Semtech(SMTC.US) and $Macom Tech(MTSI.US), the kingmakers of the 1.6T ramp??

I think that'd make sense because allocation at the DSP and analog front-end seems to be the new share battle given how constrained the laser makers are. And it then decides which module houses ramp on schedule and grow earnings fastest.

So in my opinion, if you want to know who ships 1.6T in volume in 2027, DSP and TIA allocation is the real signal/alpha.

Looking at AAOI specifically now:

- Q2 800G revenue was $12.8M.

- The guide is ~5x sequential in Q3, then more than $70M of 1.6T in Q4.

- Building to roughly $471M/month month by mid-2027 - of which management pegs $217M monthly from 800G and $164M from 1.6T.

- That’s a roughly 12 month path from a ~$36M monthly DC run rate to a $471M one.

- Requiring capacity to climb from ~200,000 units/month now to >650,000 by end of 2026 to >930,000 by end of 2027, every qualification to land on time, and DSP/TIA allocation to be there at each step.

Essentially, that’s several consecutive flawless quarters of capacity, qualification and third-party allocation with zero slip ups. Personally, I’d be modelling the mid-2027 exit meaningfully below $471 million/month and treat the target as the ceiling rather than the base case.

Whether you want to trust AAOI’s management is up to you, but so far so good.

And just touching on the CW/EML mix:

This is basically a margin event for the laser owners whichever way the pendulum swings.

Lumentum is closing the CW vs. EML margin gap by shrinking CW die, 200G EMLs are already over 25% of EML revenue heading to a majority by mid-2027, with over 50% EML unit growth targeted by the December 2026 quarter. The CEO expects SiPh viable at 1.6T but EMLs “come back in a meaningful way” at 3.2T.

Ultimately, in a constrained environment, wherever a laser can be sourced will be used to support the buildout.

While everything is sold out, customers take whichever laser they can get, so EML vs. SiPho is a margin-mix question for the supplier, not a demand question.

4. NPO = TAM expansion

Lumentum’s CEO framed near-packaged optics as pure additive TAM: “The NPO opportunity is completely additive for us, significantly increasing the optical TAM” and noted even “our largest CPO customer is looking at NPO for specific new use cases, further increasing the optical TAM at that account.”

I actually think “additive” TAM holds quite well here with NPO:

- NPO and CPO first displace copper scale-up links inside and across racks, not front-panel pluggables on scale-out.

- That means pluggable/scale-out demand and integrated-optics/scale-up demand stack rather than substitute, at least through 2028.

- The TAM claim stops being true only if scale-out itself ever moves onto the substrate which doesn’t seem to be the case for the next few years at least.

In my opinion, this is a rare case where the bullish management framing survives various mechanism checks.

This is why the content-per-XPU maths is the entire point, and it is why the laser makers sound indifferent to the specific form factor of CPO or NPO etc. Moving from a shared front-panel module to per-package light sources multiplies discrete laser count and optical power per accelerator.

That’s the mechanical reason Coherent can say NPO and CPO carry “comparable content” - in both, Coherent is selling the laser, the external laser module, the isolators, the polarization-maintaining fiber it makes in-house, and the fiber-attach.

On standards: optically these are converging on OCI/MSA-based interfaces at 200G/lane, but the form factors are proprietary per customer (Wupen Yuen). That cuts in the incumbents' favour, because it raises qualification lock-in per socket even as the optical layer standardizes.

Ultimately, the CW laser supply names and VCSEL optionality matter here. Coherent is pushing a 200G VCSEL for NPO-type applications, which widens the playing field. In terms of who loses - retimed pluggable-only franchises see their share of the optical $ shrink in relative terms as integrated optics adds a new dollar pool on top.

After looking into it a bit more over the past few months, I do believe that NPO wins the first wave because it trades power and cost for simplicity around time to market.

That, in the end, doesn’t matter to whoever owns the lasers because they’re selling comparable content into whichever one customers pick.

—

Just a few of my personal notes which I filtered down into some of the main points.

There’s other things to be aware of too like the ongoing InP chokepoint, memory bottleneck, scale-across at Lumentum, and OCS type stuff.

But don’t want this post to become longer than it already is.

Quanta, the AI server giant, said order visibility extends into 2028, and the CFO is “very excited” about the next 2-years, at its 2nd quarter investors’ conference, media report:

-Capex raised to NT$40 billion from NT$30 billion

-AI server capacity will double by end-2026 vs last year.

-2028 AI server capacity to double again vs 2026.

-AI servers accounted for 75-80% of total server revenue

-In the 3rd quarter, AI server revenue will grow by a double-digit percent vs Q2

-For full year 2026, AI server revenue will double vs 2025

-Top 5 CSPs/Hyperscalers are all Quanta clients

-It has also won AI server and ASIC server orders from Neo Clouds

-Quanta made a US$973 million cash injection into US operations for further expansion

-Full year laptop shipments are expected to drop by a double digit % $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Oracle(ORCL.US) #AIservers #laptops

Source: Dan Nystedt

Nvidia’s next generation chip platform, Feynman is ahead of schedule, will use TSMC’s A16 process, and CPO (co-packaged optics), DigiTimes reports, with TSMC full speed ahead to meet 2028 mass production.

-Nvidia is rapidly shifting its supply chain to put Feynman out in the 2nd half of 2028

-Feynman uses 3D chiplets, SoIC packaging and CPO. (Silicon-on-Integrated-Chips).

-Total rack bandwidth for Feynman to hit 1,000 TB/s versus 260 TB/s for Rubin and 520 TB/s for Rubin Ultra, making CPO vital.

-TSMC construction at advanced packaging plants AP7 in Chiayi and AP8 in Tainan are ahead of schedule, and accelerating

-SoIC, CoWoS-L and CoPoS are all being pulled forward

-SoIC capacity seen at 50,000 wafers-per-month (wpm) by end-2027, vs end-2026's 20,000wpm $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

Breaking: Michael Burry has finally admitted he's wrong in his updated positions

He:

• Added to Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) shorts

• Trimmed Caterpillar $Caterpillar(CAT.US) shorts

• Opened Invesco QQQ $QQQ shorts

• Covered Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US) shorts

• Covered Applied Materials $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) shorts

• Closed his Semiconductor ETF $SOXX shorts

He left his NVDA and PLTR shorts untouched

New: Renaissance Technologies (founded by Jim Simons) just dropped their Q2 2026 13F

Currently a $72.6B portfolio with 3,140 positions

Here's what changed:

Top Buys (approx):

• Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US): +$995M

• Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US): +$978M

• Intel $Intel(INTC.US): +$696M

• Alphabet $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US): +$672M

• CrowdStrike $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US): +$572M

• Amazon $Amazon(AMZN.US): +$546M

Top Sells (approx):

• SanDisk $Sandisk(SNDK.US): -$497M

• Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US): -$487M

• Apple $Apple(AAPL.US): -$322M

• Linde $Linde(LIN.US): -$310M

• Vertiv $Vertiv(VRT.US): -$232M

• Nu Holdings $NU Holdings(NU.US): -$196M

Looks like they're rotating into mega-cap AI and cybersecurity while cutting memory/chip supply-chain and industrial names

AI factories are the industrial infrastructure of the AI era.

Tokens are the new commodity.

How do you optimize AI token economics? 🧵

Source: NVIDIA_X