SK hynix

$SK hynix(SKHY.US) waiting and waiting and waiting

If the performance of Samsung and SK Hynix this time isn't explosive enough, will the panic about computing power oversupply be confirmed? I'm waiting for the live stream right on time, and my mindset about the little computing power stocks I hold is a bit shaky. 😂

"Major Bank": UBS Raises SK Hynix (000660.KS) Target Price to 3.2 Million Won, Reiterates "Buy", Ups 2026-28 Operating Profit Forecast by 7% to 12%

Small capital can try leveraged ETFs, $XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK). Large capital seeking stability can focus on $Tuttle Capital Memory Stack Inc BlastETF(DRMP.US).

DRAM covered strategy ETF, you can refer to my past articles for reasonable allocation.

$SK hynix(SKHY.US) Will this stock follow the same path as SpaceX's listing, peaking right at IPO and then turning into a mess after the hype fades? Let me guess: a big surge in storage-related stocks one or two days around the listing, followed by a straight 50% drop.

Storage Sector Deep Dive Update: Samsung's Profits Beat Expectations, Why is the Stock Price Still Correcting?

Key AI Points Summary:

1. The core logic behind Samsung's significantly better-than-expected earnings and its weakening stock price

The market's current pricing focus is no longer on a company's current profit level, but on whether the speed of profit upgrades can be sustained.

The memory sector has already fully priced in multiple positive factors such as chip price increases, HBM volume growth, and the implementation of long-term supply agreements.

At this stage, the market has three main concerns:

First, the inflection point in growth rate is emerging, and the rapid upward phase of DRAM and NAND price and profit upgrades is likely nearing its end;

Second, valuations remain discounted. The implementation of long-term supply agreements has not led to a synchronous increase in valuations; the market still values these stocks based on cyclical stock standards;

Third, there is uncertainty about long-term demand. As cloud service providers are the core source of end-demand, their subsequent capital expenditure guidance has become the biggest variable for the market trend.

In simple terms: current profit performance is very strong, but capital is worried that the strength of future growth will decline, so a lot of capital is choosing to take profits.

2. Is the growth rate inflection point mentioned in the report equivalent to the peak of the industry cycle?

The two cannot be directly equated; the growth rate inflection point and the cycle peak are two completely different concepts.

The growth rate inflection point represents a slowdown in the upward speed of chip price increases and profit upgrades, with the market transitioning from a high-growth phase to a stable-growth phase.

The cycle peak, however, means that chip prices, corporate profits, and market demand simultaneously shift from rising to falling, entering a downward channel.

This also explains why, despite strong fundamentals, the stock price corrects in advance. Capital will front-run the expectation of slowing growth. This kind of high-level volatility and turnover has occurred many times in the historical price movements of cyclical categories.

3. The underlying reason why the continuous implementation of long-term supply agreements cannot drive up the valuation of memory companies

The root cause lies in the market's inherent concerns about past industry cycle trends.

In historical cycles, long-term supply agreements have seen situations like customers renegotiating prices and passive accumulation of excessive inventory, which ultimately suppressed corporate profits due to high inventory.

The market's core current doubt is whether long-term supply agreements can be stably converted into operating cash flow, rather than just remaining as paper profits while simultaneously increasing corporate inventory levels.

Simply put, the market consistently applies a cyclical discount to corporate profits for valuation purposes. To repair valuations, corporate financial reports need to simultaneously demonstrate three things: stable high gross margins, healthy inventory levels, and ample free cash flow.

4. During this correction phase, memory companies have shown clear differentiation; the logic behind the tiered ranking of industry stocks

There are significant differences in the risk logic of each company. The core basis for tiered ranking is two-fold: the depth of a company's connection to real AI demand, and the strength of its own capacity supply barriers.

First tier, core stocks for industry fundamentals:

Samsung Electronics has a complete, vertically integrated industry chain layout. SK Hynix possesses industry-leading HBM capacity purity. These two are the bellwethers for the overall sector trend.

Second tier, stocks combining high volatility and profit quality: Micron's stock price shows stronger volatility elasticity, with its performance moving in sync with DRAM prices. Kioxia and SanDisk rely on enterprise SSD business to hedge pressure from ordinary flash memory operations. Western Digital and Seagate depend on HDD business for stable cash flow, highlighting their defensive attributes. This type of company needs to continuously verify its own profit quality and cash flow levels.

$SK hynix(SKHY.US) waiting for its listing this Friday

Without actual revenue verification upstream, coins can't be generated infinitely. The cycle can be prolonged, but it cannot be changed. Using one foot to step on the other to pull expenditure for procurement, there has to be an outcome, right, sir?

📊 𝐈𝐍𝐕𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐑 𝐍𝐎𝐓𝐄: David Tepper’s Appaloosa Gains 32% in H1 on AI Memory Chip Bets - Bloomberg - $Micron Tech(MU.US)

$Micron Tech(MU.US)What impact will SK Hynix's listing day actually have on Micron?

UBS: Memory

$SK hynix(SKHY.US)

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

This year is like this ≠ Every year is like this

There is demand ≠ Supply will always fall short of demand

A good company ≠ A good price

Moat > Cyclicality

If A doesn't expand production, B will.

Everyone knows it's impossible to sell at this price forever. If there is future demand, just ensure you can continue to supply when the time comes.

What if the price gets driven down by competition?

No choice. If you don't expand production, you won't even make money at the lower price later. Besides, the demand has also somewhat lifted the cycle and profits. Between making no profit and making less profit, the latter is definitely better. So in the end, A, B, and C all expand production.

What if no one expands production?

Unlikely. It's hard for a sector with excess profits but no strong moat to avoid being considered by competitors and outsiders.

What if everyone is united and peacefully earns a premium?

That would only force customers to bear the pressure in the short term, leading them to research ways to do less business with you in the long run.

Take 🇮🇷 as an example. After the Strait incident, everyone will consider multiple transportation solutions long-term to avoid similar future risks. You can't be held hostage like that again next time.

Everyone in business knows it's wrong to cheat customers. Squeezing Party A dry and playing a pure trade surplus game is unsustainable. Letting the other party develop sustainably and make money is better for both sides in the long run.

Using institutional hype as an opportunity to voice a contrarian view. If you don't agree, you're right.

I'm not bearish. I'd hold it too if my cost basis is low enough. But it takes real courage to rush in at this price level.

Before buying, think more about the moat and the price first.

$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM.US)$SK hynix(SKHY.US)

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK)$Micron Tech(MU.US) Good news, I got in. Bad news, I didn't buy enough.

$SK hynix(SKHY.US) See you this Friday～

$SK hynix(SKHY.US) Can I apply for the IPO?

$SK hynix(SKHY.US)

$SK hynix(SKHY.US) I always feel like the Koreans are up to no good, coming here to suck blood.

SK hynix raises up to $28 billion through U.S. depositary receipt listing

According to previously disclosed regulatory documents, SK hynix expects its U.S. depositary receipts to begin official trading on July 10.

Major investors have expressed interest in purchasing up to $7 billion of the offering shares.

The proceeds will be used to build new chip factories and equipment in South Korea, while expanding the company's global investor base.

$SK hynix(SKHY.US)