SNDK251128C295000.US

Sandisk $Sandisk(SNDK.US) has staged an explosive rally, surging nearly 500% year-to-date to trade around $1,641.11. Driven by massive AI infrastructure demand and record Q4 revenue of nearly $9 billion, the flash memory giant is proving that data storage is the newest critical bottleneck in the tech boom.

At its recent investor day, CEO David Goeckeler unveiled multi-year business model agreements with top hyperscalers representing roughly $100 billion in total contract value. By locking customers into long-term commitments with fixed pricing floors, Sandisk aims to transform a historically volatile, cyclical memory market into a predictable, high-margin cash generator.

Despite Wall Street upgrades and towering price targets reaching up to $2,350, risks remain. Surging competition from expanding international capacity and high expectations leave the stock vulnerable if AI inference demand cools. Investors should weigh whether this structural shift overrides traditional cyclicality.

The quarterly earnings season has been in full swing over the past week. Despite similar performance, it's a world apart from July.

This week, the focus is on Thursday's FOMC meeting. We've noticed the 10-year US Treasury yield oscillating at high levels and could break out upward at any moment.

This is a risk factor.

Some thoughts on 13F season disclosures that we got…

Source: amit

🚨 TOP 10 WEEKLY DOWNGRADES:

Mizuho: InP & Memory

$Micron Tech(MU.US)

Micron’s price action looks pretty similar to Sandisk. Not surprising as both are critical suppliers in the same supply chain serving the same bottle necks. Both provide memory components complementary to each other which are very high in demand yet short of supply.

No matter what the bears are saying (most of whom are following a certain famous ‘one hit wonder’ investor and his theses including the ‘5 year GPU lifespan’. Interestingly his name sounds like ‘bear’ also. 😂) and no disrespect meant. I mean the theses does have some grounds. However, this is what the best investors do. They pivot where necessary and are not married to the theses. No one is right all the time.

Where there were doubts whether the AI buildout will yield ROI, those doubts have been quelled with earnings showing that AI is making money. Now its about closing the gap between the buildout and profits. That’s what the markets need to see before the next big leg up.

The next phase is inference. And let’s focus there first before discussing future phases like agentic buildouts, autonomous AI which includes self driven cars and robots etc. When we talk about inference, that alone needs loads of memory. We haven’t even gone to the next phase.

And when you see the big boys lining up to fund the industry, that is very telling. AI is now too big to fail. And they always say ‘Do not fight the tape’. Be on the right side.

Now again, even price needs a breather at times. We just had one. Now it looks like high beta wants to get going again.

Back to memory. Like Sandisk, MU looks like going for its ATH. I know some will laugh at me. As they do when I was bearish at the top. (Look at my time stamped posts!) There will be a time when I will be wary. Now it’s time to make hay while the sun shines.

*Not financial advice. Just my honest opinion.

@Captain's Treasure

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate, with shipping traffic at a three-month low and conflicting signals from both sides regarding an end to the conflict; oil prices still fell 2.1% to $87.07.

Gold saw slight gains, while the US dollar remained weak.

The situation is not optimistic; hold some cash and keep safe-haven precious metals on hand for emergencies.

The inflation numbers are out and both CPI and PPI are looking favourable. The markets like them and are trending higher as a result.

The overall market is taking the inflation numbers in its stride and liking it. Price action leans bullish and the number of bears still being around and vocal gives it an even more bullish nuance.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Source: amit

With CPI and PPI out of the way, it is back to earnings for the remaining companies. Interesting to see if there will be a pullback from all time highs or we go higher from here.

I still like Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (SGX: BS6) fundamentally, but at today’s ~S$4.66 I would not chase it with a large purchase. The price has moved very quickly after the excellent 1H26 results. As of 10:51am today, it was around S$4.66, already close to its recent high.

Can NBM Dampen Cyclical Volatility?

Decent day today but a lot of AI names gave up their gains when the $Workday(WDAY.US) news broke out possibly leading to L/S funds having to cover software shorts vs their semi longs.

$Sandisk(SNDK.US)

Source: amit

The CPI index went down but it might be temporal. China market also down might mean continue deflation in China and push prices of things down, keeping cpi down

US July PPI rose 4.7% year-over-year, falling below market expectations and slowing from June's 5.5%, while Core PPI declined to 4.2%. Combined with softening CPI data, the reports indicate cooling production-side and consumer inflationary pressures, largely driven by dropping energy and food prices. This lower than expected inflation data relieved market concerns regarding reaccelerating inflation and reduced near term Fed rate hike pressures.

J.P. Morgan on memory LTAs: "A relatively misunderstood element within LTA is the resilience of pricing. Majority of the LTA discussion is currently centered around server memory. CSP and AI related memory demand is likely to be the majority (over 70% of total bit demand and 85+% of total revenue) of the contract. Server memory solutions carry a significant price premium over non-server applications and we believe the LTA mix increase will be pricing/margin accretive from a mid-to-long term horizon."