Direxion Daily TSLA Bear 1X Shares

U.S. stocks rebounded (SPX +0.4%, NDX +0.8%) on strong $Microsoft(MSFT.US) cloud growth, reassuring investors that AI investments are paying off and no further escalation in hyper scaler Capex, outweighing inflation worries and a jump in 30-year treasury yields after the Fed held rates steady. $Meta Platforms(META.US) fell pre-market on lighter 3Q rev guidance. Investor focus remains on potential overspend on AI Capex and likely returns; S&P 500 FY’2026 EPS estimates +25% YoY to $346, equating to a 21.1x forward P/E (4.7% earnings yield) in line with 10-year treasury yields. Escalation in U.S.-Iran conflict continues. Caution advised on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining long-term earnings estimates, likely commoditization of autonomous ride-hailing, and a stretched valuation.

MSFT FY4Q26 First Take. Amid an earnings deluge this read is a touch late, but the takeaway is clear: the leadership rotation has swung back in Microsoft's favor. Four key points:

1) Azure re-acceleration: the Jun quarter grew 43% YoY. Guidance points to 45% next quarter, with 2H growth running ahead of 1H.

2) Capex did not spike: spend was $41bn this quarter, with next quarter guided to $50bn. That implies CY 4Q at approx. $52bn and keeps the run-rate on track for CY2026 capex of ~$200bn including leases. For FY2027, management still guides to YoY growth.

A small wrinkle: by extending useful lives on long-duration assets, some items now qualify as operating leases and no longer count toward capex. This technically lowers CY2026 reported capex to ~$175bn.

3) Making money: with AI a bigger mix in cloud, GPM should have compressed, yet the actual pullback was modest. Higher revenue amplified operating leverage and drove a sharp decline in opex ratio, helped by ~5k headcount reductions this fiscal year. As a result, margins rose rather than fell.

Note an important timing point: Microsoft began ramping capex in 2Q23 and has kept it elevated for three years, but D&A remains light, with the latest quarter even down YoY. Early capex skewed to long-lived assets and useful lives were extended this time, delaying expense recognition. Starting in 3Q25, however, shorter-cycle assets like servers will be purchased in size, so the depreciation headwind has yet to fully bite.

4) Cash to spare: unlike Alphabet, Tesla, and Meta, whose aggressive spend has strained cash flows, Microsoft's cash capex excluding finance leases remains in the $30–35bn range. Based on the qualitative capex guide and revenue trajectory, free cash flow should stay positive in the new fiscal year.

Overall, Microsoft posted a 'help-yourself' quarter in a market that is turning cautious on AI infrastructure spending elsewhere. Growth, margins, and cash are all in place, and in today's setup and risk appetite, the long-awaited rotation has finally come back to Microsoft. $Microsoft(MSFT.US)

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Source: amit

$Tesla(TSLA.US) some support at 280 but 265 is the level I am watching.

Update: It's been 29 days since Michael Burry publicly went bearish on Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US)

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Source: amit

Sold some $BRK.B to raise some cash💰

Bought more $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Tesla(TSLA.US) long calls

Not investment advice!

$Tesla(TSLA.US)Tesla remains one of the most exciting companies to follow because it continues to innovate in electric vehicles, autonomous driving, and AI technology. Although the share price has been quite volatile recently, I still believe Tesla has strong long-term growth potential. The expansion of its Robotaxi business and continuous software improvements show that the company is investing in the future. In my opinion, Tesla is still worth investing in if I am prepared for short-term price fluctuations and focus on its long-term vision rather than daily market movements.

U.S. stocks slipped as a deepening chipmaker rout spurred by the plunge in Korean semiconductor stocks and AI spending doubts outweighed gains from lower oil prices and treasury yields. Brent crude fell 3.5% to $85 amid an extended U.S.-Iran pause and Hormuz talks; 10-year yields eased to 4.61% ahead of a Fed meeting widely expected to hold rates. Big Tech and consumer earnings loom, with focus on AI capex. S&P 2026 EPS estimates have risen +25% YoY to $346 (21.4x P/E). I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining forward earnings estimates, the likely commoditization of unsupervised autonomy technology, and a seemingly excessive valuation.

Tesla’s Optimus could become its most valuable business over the next decade—if execution matches ambition. I’m bullish long term, but commercialization, manufacturing scale, and AI reliability remain the biggest hurdles.

I expect $Tesla(TSLA.US) to fall below $300/share and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) to break $100/share in the coming weeks on valuation concerns. Both trade at FY’26 P/E in excess of 175x which seems excessive as AI-related valuations continue to unravel.

As I have mentioned before, this market is long overdue for a proper correction and memory stocks could be the first to lead it down.

CXMT’s upcoming listing isn’t just another semiconductor IPO. It’s a direct challenge and a far bigger threat to SK Hynix, Micron and every other player in this space. Yesterday’s sharp drop in memory stocks?

It could be a healthy correction or it could already be pricing in this new competition. Either way, the market has spoken and we can all see it.

How far will this pullback go? I expect it to be short‑term. But over the medium run, memory stocks must deliver on their growth story ,just like Tesla. If cannot deliver, the market will punish them hard.

$SpaceX(SPCX.US)

🤖 Is SpaceX’s AI Being Valued At Zero?

That’s the big question facing SPCX as it keeps sliding post‑IPO.

⏰ The $100 Inflection Point:

The idea that hitting $100 means SpaceX’s AI business is worth zero comes directly from top Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas.

At that price level, the market would effectively value all AI projects including Grok and the Cursor acquisition at absolutely nothing.

⏰ Why The Doubt?

Investors worry about the massive capital needed for AI infrastructure, especially compared to the proven cash flow from its Space & Starlink operations.

⏰Where It Stands Now:

After peaking at $225.64, shares have fallen sharply to ~$110.85 (well below the $135 IPO price) .

⏰ More Supply Coming:

Coming 6 August brings the first major lock‑up expiry, releasing up to 911.5 million shares. It is effectively doubling current free float and adding more pressure.

Even so, Morgan Stanley stays bullish with a $300 price target, calling current levels an attractive entry point.

They point to recent wins like the 13th Starship test flight and next year’s NASA moon mission as proof execution stays firmly on track.

Is the market overreacting or has the AI hype run too far ahead? 🛰️🤔

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) merger with $Tesla(TSLA.US) looks less likely today.

Before 1896, British law required that each car be driven by at least three people, with a speed limit of no more than 3 miles per hour, and that a person carrying a red flag run in front of the car.

Whenever new technology emerges, various laws and regulations are introduced to constrain it; the current Robotaxi is no exception.

Looking back years from now, this might seem incredible 🤔

$Tesla(TSLA.US)Tesla shares dropped sharply following a disappointing second-quarter earnings report, which missed profit expectations, showed negative free cash flow, and highlighted massive spending increases on artificial intelligence and robotics.

Earnings and Profit Miss

Lower profit per share: Reported adjusted earnings of $0.33 per share vs. $0.51 to $0.54 expected by Wall Street.

Shrinking margins:

Automotive gross margins compressed due to vehicle price cuts and lower regulatory credit revenue.

Profit decline:

Total net income fell roughly 5% year-over-year.

Heavy Cash Burn and SpendingSurging capital expenditures:

Capital expenses more than doubled to $5.79 billion for the quarter.

Negative free cash flow:

The company burned through over $1.1 billion during the quarter.

Aggressive future guidance:

Executives stated that full-year spending will exceed $25 billion to fund robotaxis, AI infrastructure, and the Optimus humanoid robot.

Investor Concerns Over TimelineDelayed payoff: Investors grew worried about the slow rollout and heavy costs of Elon Musk’s long-promised robotaxi and robotics projects.

$Tesla(TSLA.US)$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)$Intel(INTC.US)

Big Tech Pullback: What Changed and What Didn’t?

Over a week :

* 🔻 Tesla: -18.92%

* 🔻 Alphabet: -7.10%

* 🔻 Intel: -5.41%

The market reacted sharply to earnings, rising AI investment, higher capital expenditure and a more cautious investor sentiment. The underlying stories for each tech stocks are different for each company.

📌 Tesla faces greater execution risks as it ramps up AI and robotics spending.

📌 Intel continues its turnaround, with improving fundamentals despite the sell-off.

📌 Alphabet’s core business remains strong, although investors are concerned about the scale of its AI infrastructure investment.

Is this the start of a longer downturn or simply a valuation reset after high expectations?

The infographic summarised the key reasons behind the share price movements, whether fundamentals have changed and what it could mean for long-term investors.

👉 Refer to the infographic for a detailed breakdown and comparison.