TSM260618C370000.US

AMD’s latest chips made using TSMC’s 2nm production will debut this week at AMD Advancing AI 2026 conference (July 22-23), media report:

Source: Dan Nystedt

TSMC and other high energy users may soon see costs rise: Taiwan lawmakers will on Wednesday (7/22) review a proposal to require major electricity consumers (TSMC is the biggest) to install their own power supply for 5MW or more power contracts, media report, noting around 400 companies in semiconductors, AI data centers, optoelectronics, and more will be affected. The idea is to avoid straining Taiwan’s power grid. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) $Bloom Energy(BE.US) $GE Aerospace(GE.US) #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

I'm still in a daze. I bet on this entry. My FOMO had been suppressed for a long time, and now the drop has cured my FOMO, but it gave me panic disorder.

- TSMC spent about $14B in the two years before 28nm ramped in 4Q11 and about $76B in the two years before N2's 2Q26 ramp, a 5.7x increase across seven node generations

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) unity of knowledge and action

Easier said than done

It goes against human nature 🤔

Bros, have a great weekend!

BREAKING: Broadcom is diversifying away from long-time foundry partner TSMC. Lego will be the new manufacturing partner for Broadcom's flagship hyperscaler ASIC products in 2028. Broadcom President of Semiconductor Solutions, Charlie Kawwas, has already showed off package samples at RAISE Summit in Paris last week. With TSMC supply constrained, customers are alternative sources of chip supply from unexpected places. One of the major differentiators Lego brings is industry leading defect repair, "plug and play" chiplet interoperability, as well as built in self-alignment technology for 3D stacking. Mattel and Hasbro were also under consideration, but Lego's proven track record won out in the end. We have ordered multiple Millennium Falcon Sets set to our Portland teardown lab for competitive teardown analysis.

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) | 𝐃𝐀 𝐃𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐬𝐨𝐧 maintains 𝐁𝐮𝐲 on 𝐓𝐚𝐢𝐰𝐚𝐧 𝐒𝐞𝐦𝐢, 𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐏𝐓 𝐭𝐨 $𝟓𝟎𝟎 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 $𝟒𝟓𝟎

TSMC’s stronger outlook reinforces that AI demand remains healthy. Higher capex may pressure short-term sentiment, but investing to expand capacity could create greater long-term value for industry leaders.

$Oracle(ORCL.US) near 124, a 52-week low, down about 33% on the month on AI-spend-return worries. and today's TSMC capex scare is the exact same anxiety, the market suddenly cares whether all this AI investment pays off. Oracle's cloud revenue was up 47% so the growth is real, but the multiple compression is brutal. i'm watching, not catching, because a stock making new lows on a sector-wide fear can keep making them. no knife-catching.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) down to 853, and the reason is almost funny: the market's scared because TSMC is spending MORE to meet demand. that's the bull case, not the bear case. you don't raise capex 8 billion into a glut. i added a small tranche into this dip, cost basis 1050. the CXMT IPO is a 2027-2028 supply question, not a today problem. HBM shortage runs through 2027.

$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X (SOXL.US)$ got shredded as the PHLX semi index fell 2.6% and the 3x turned that into a much bigger loss. this is exactly the tape leverage hates, a sharp sector down day. i scalp it intraday only, never hold overnight, and definitely not through a week where TSMC capex and CXMT glut fears are whipping the whole group. the decay plus this volatility is an account killer. respect it.

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) posts a blowout, raises guidance, and the sector sells off because it also raised capex to 60-64B. let me get this straight, the market's mad the foundry is investing MORE to meet demand? that's backwards. TSMC doesn't overbuild, ever. a capex raise this big means the order book is screaming. i hold TSM and this reinforces the whole AI thesis for me, not weakens it.

Markets hate uncertainty, not growth. TSMC raising capex to meet demand is proof the AI buildout is accelerating, not slowing. Yes margins take a hit short term, but whoever owns the most advanced capacity wins for the next 5 years. This selloff is a gift to add to AI winners.

A broad semiconductor selloff weighed on U.S. equities despite strong results from TSMC. While the company exceeded expectations and raised its full-year outlook, its higher 2026 capital expenditure guidance prompted investors to reassess future free cash flow and valuations across the chip sector. The resulting weakness in semiconductor stocks pressured the Nasdaq, while capital rotated into regional banks and other lower-valuation sectors, reflecting a shift in near-term market positioning.

The theme for "punishment" (aka excuse for profit taking) this year for the AI trade is consistent - concerns on ROI of capex. In this case TSMC is up nearly 40% YTD and institution players may simply used the capex headline as an excuse to lock in gains. Fact is that TSMC builds capacity against pre-paid customer (APPL, NVDA, AMD) commitments. With full-year revenue outlook raised from "above 30%" to 40%+ (abv Wall St consensus of 35%) and demand structurally locked in through 2030 due to emergence of agentic AI.

* TSMC's strong results reaffirm that AI demand remains resilient despite the market's negative reaction

* Chip selloff looks more like broad profit-taking after a strong rally than a deterioration in fundamentals

* Key support levels will determine whether this is a healthy pullback or a deeper correction.

* Focus on volume and price action rather than reacting to headlines alone

* Staying on the sidelines until buying momentum returns and the trend is confirmed remains the prudent approach

* The long term AI trend remains intact unless major support levels are decisively broken

* Keeping Nvidia, TSMC, SK Hynix and Broadcom on my watchlist for potential buying opportunities when the technical setup improves