TSMC 2nd quarter (Q2) conference on Thursday (7/16

TSMC 2nd quarter (Q2) conference on Thursday (7/16), media report expectations:

Q2 revenue NT$1.27 trillion (already known, US$ not known)

-Net profit seen up 59% to NT$632.6 billion (US$19.6B), 10th straight quarter of growth

-Gross margin could exceed 68%

-Operating margin seen hitting new high

-R&D expense seen hitting record high due to advanced process investments

Q3 revenue forecast seen +9%-12% vs Q2 in USD terms (some 15% estimates)

Full Year

-Raise full year revenue to mid-30s% increase from current ‘above 30%’ growth, most bullish scenario sees 40%

-Unlikely to raise 2026 capex (some see $58B-$60B) but could discuss plan for next 3-years

5-year CAGR forecast 2024-2029:

-AI semiconductor revenue CAGR for 2024–2029 seen raised to 70%-80% from mid-to-high 50% now

TSMC Official Q2 Guidance

-Revenue US$39.0B to $40.2B

-Gross Margin: 65.5% to 67.5%

-Operating Margin: 56.5% to 58.5%

-Exchange rate forecast NT$31.7 per US dollar.

What investors want to know:

-Overall AI demand health

-CoWoS packaging capacity expansion

-N2/N3 ramp and pricing

-Is memory shortage hurting demand for logic chips?

-Update on global construction projects

-Update on advanced processes and packaging (CoPoS, SoIC, etc) R&D

-TSMC view on intensified competition from Intel, Samsung

-Will TSMC raise prices again in 2027? (5%-10% increase expected)

-Gross margin projections for 2026 and 2027

-Capex strategy for next 3-years

-Semiconductor industry outlook

Links:

Source: Dan Nystedt