J.P. Morgan: Memory TAM
DRAM TAM Forecast> Revenue Trajectory: Expected to grow from $77B in 2022 to $1,237B ($1.24T) by 2028E.> Peak Growth Year: 2026E marks a massive spike with a 346% year-over-year growth rate, jumping revenue to $636B.> Recent Trend: After market dips in 2022 (-16%) and 2023 (-36%), recovery began with a strong 91% growth surge in 2024 ($95B).NAND TAM Forecast> Revenue Trajectory: Projected to increase from $55B in 2022 to $454B by 2028E.> Peak Growth Year: Similar to DRAM, 2026E represents the steepest climb with a 322% year-over-year growth rate, pushing revenue from $71B in 2025 up to $300B.> Prior Performance: Following a downturn in 2022 and 2023 (-37%), the market rebounded sharply in 2024 with 101% growth ($70B).HBM TAM Forecast> Explosive Growth: High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) shows the most aggressive expansion, scaling from just $4B in 2023 to a projected $225B by 2028E.> Sustained Momentum: Year-over-year growth remains exceptionally high throughout the forecast period, peaking at 317% in 2024 ($17B) and maintaining high triple-digit or near-triple-digit growth through 2025 (98%), 2026E (94%), and 2027E (99%) before moderating to 74% in 2028E ($225B).
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