SpaceX faces a $100bn+ lockup expiry; DeepSeek plans a sharp hike to API pricing | Daily News Recap

0807 ｜Dolphin Research Focus

🐬 Macro / Sectors

1. Gold surged overnight as Goldman Sachs flagged Chinese capital returning, while Trump signaled talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Easing Fed tightening expectations and falling U.S. real yields further lifted bullion. Q2 central-bank buying beat estimates, and the Bank of Korea resumed purchases for the first time in 13 years, providing a floor. Multiple drivers are pushing gold higher near term, but the strait talks are still preliminary and outcomes uncertain; keep tracking geopolitics alongside U.S. inflation and jobs prints.

2. DeepSeek Open Platform said it will raise API pricing broadly in the near term, indicating a sizable hike but without specifics yet on magnitude or timing. It introduced peak/off-peak pricing in Jul, doubling call rates during peak hours, with web/App consumer chats unaffected and the impact concentrated on enterprise developers and AI startups. With computing costs elevated and agent-driven token use surging, low-price, volume-led models look unsustainable, marking a shift from price wars to commercialization. Developers reliant on its APIs face higher costs and may need to tweak business models, and peers could lift their API price anchors as well.

🐬 Single Stocks

1.$MINIMAX-W(00100.HK)

MINIMAX was added to Stock Connect. Its H3 video model topped Hugging Face in popularity, ranking near the top globally across several video benchmarks and gaining broad adoption by developers at home and abroad. Inclusion could unlock onshore incremental flows, while H3's leadership showcases progress in China-made video LLMs. Shares face dual catalysts from fundamentals and flows; watch commercialization milestones for follow-through.

2.$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

Jeff Dean, Google's chief AI scientist for 27 years, resigned to start a new venture with other senior technologists, raising concerns about continuity in Alphabet's AI strategy and pressuring the stock. As a foundational figure in the AI org, his exit could spur further talent attrition. Management said collaboration will continue, but the market worries about wavering cadence and direction for Gemini iterations. This is dampening AI sentiment near term.

3.$Amazon(AMZN.US)

SEC filings show Jeff Bezos executed his first AMZN sale of the year, cashing out $350 mn under a previously disclosed plan to sell up to $4 bn; he remains the largest shareholder. The sale coincided with AMZN's market cap topping $3 tn, prompting debate on megacap tech valuations. This is a small planned tranche and does not change fundamentals, but it could trim risk appetite at the margin.

4.$Meta Platforms(META.US)

Meta launched its first AI coding agent, Muse Code, built on the Muse Spark 1.2 model, offering code generation, debugging, and project iteration for developers. It aims to compete with mainstream coding agents. The release fills a key gap in Meta's AI agent lineup and strengthens its open-source tooling ecosystem.

5.$SpaceX(SPCX.US)

On Aug 6, SpaceX saw lock-ups expire on ~911.5 mn insider shares, implying ~$116 bn in market value and marking a rare event in U.S. markets by size; free float will expand sharply. The unlock mainly covers early investors and employees, while Musk and other core holders remain locked. Unlock does not equal selling, but the supply overhang is significant. Combined with a pullback from highs and elevated short interest, that heightens near-term two-way volatility and weakens the small-float valuation premium seen post-listing.

6. Earnings and calls on Dolphin's radar

Applovin: 'Applovin: A top student stumbles—can the e-com dream survive?'. 'AppLovin (Trans): Model gains came late; Q3 re-accelerating'.

Shopify: 'Shopify: +30% surge—stellar results, tricky valuation'. 'Shopify (Trans): GMV +32%; next up, agentic'.

Disney: 'Resilient in headwinds'. 'Disney (Trans): Segment profit +21%; buybacks raised to $9 bn'.

🐬 Top Gainers

A-shares: industrial gases and coal & consumable fuels. Kitchenware also led.

HK: silver and system software. Residential construction names outperformed.

U.S.: home appliances and silver. Gold also gained.

🐬 Watch for Tomorrow

1) ABNB to report. Unity to report as well.

2) China Jul FX reserves (US$ bn) and Jul trade balance (RMB bn). Also Jul trade balance in US$ (US$ bn).

3) U.S. Jul nonfarm payrolls (SA, '000s) and unemployment rate. NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations.

Risk disclosure and statement for this article: Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosures. See link for details.