amit

amit

SPACEXAI HAS SIGNED AN AGREEMENT WITH ANTHROPIC TO ACCESS COLOSSUS 1.

Anthropic plans to use extra computing power to directly enhance capacity for Claude Pro & Claude Max Subscribers.

Elon has just turned SpaceX's compute advantage into one of the newest compute providers...

Source: amit

$Micron Tech(MU.US)

来源: amit

TRUMP:

PAUSING PROJECT FREEDOM, GETTING CLOSE TO A FINAL AGREEMENT WITH IRAN

Source: amit

ANTHROPIC COMMITS TO SPENDING $200B ON GOOGLE CLOUD AND CHIPS OVER THE NEXT 5 YEAR — THE INFORMATION

Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) is now the most valuable company on Planet Earth, overtaking $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Nvidia.

Source: amit

the market wants memory and photonics

definitely doesn’t want software or fintech

or Nvidia anymore 😂

pretty incredible bull run happening at the center of the AI supply chain

Source: amit

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

PALANTIR Q1 2026 EARNINGS:

- Revenue of $1.63B, +85% YoY

- U.S. Revenue of $1.28B, +104% YoY

- GAAP Net Income of $871M, 53% margin

- Rule of 40 of 145%

- Increasing FY 26 guide from 61% to 71% growth

Palantir is redefining what it means to dominate in the age of AI.

Source: amit

TRUMP:

- IRAN TAKING SHOTS AT SOUTH KOREAN CARGO SHIP DURING PROJECT FREEDOM

- TIME FOR SOUTH KOREA TO COME AND JOIN IRAN MISSION

- WE’VE SHOT DOWN SEVEN SMALL BOATS, IT'S ALL THEY HAVE LEFT

First meaningful level of escalation in a few weeks…markets flat/slightly red.

Source: amit

TRUMP:

- Two US-flagged merchant ships have successfully transited the strait and are continuing their journeys safely

- American guided-missile destroyers are now operating in the Arabian Gulf after passing through the Strait of Hormuz under “Project Freedom.”

Iran said they shot at US Warships, Trump and US Central Command saying that not only did that NOT happen but they actually escorted two ships safely through the Strait.

Source: amit

The Stock Market is in an interesting moment of time.

The Bulls are pointing to earnings growth at a level we have never seen before by the largest companies on the planet.

The Bears are pointing to Oil continuing to surge higher and the Equity Risk Premium essentially being zero with one or two sectors contributing to the majority of the gains.

I spent all morning compiling every chart, every counter argument, and tried putting it together into a cohesive explanation for why this rally has been so historic but what could also be troubling about it.

Historic rally:

- Semis most overbought since 2017, best run we have ever seen for them

- April up 10% on the S&P

- Best earnings growth across the board since 2021 as hyperscalers increase capex

What's troubling about it:

- Oil still over $100

- Financials are down for the year and not participating in the rally

- Japan continues to manipulate their currency and the Yen is part of the global tech trade

- Bond yields aren't coming down...at all

The Stock Market Is Ignoring All The Bad Things, but

maybe, for the right reasons...

Article below ⬇️

Source: amit

TRUMP ANNOUNCES PROJECT FREEDOM, EXPECTED TO START MONDAY MORNING:

- Multiple countries not involved in the Middle East conflict have asked the U.S. for help freeing ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz

- The U.S. plans to guide these neutral ships safely out of restricted waters so they can resume normal operations

- The effort, called “Project Freedom,” is set to begin Monday

- The mission is framed as a humanitarian move, as many ships are low on food and essential supplies

- The U.S. warns that any interference with this operation will be met with force while diplomatic discussions with Iran continue

Source: amit

UPDATES ON THE IRAN WAR:

- U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff says Washington is actively in talks with Iran as negotiations to end the war regain momentum

- Iran is reviewing the latest U.S. proposal, but Trump signals it will likely be rejected

- Iranian Foreign Ministry says its 14-point plan is strictly focused on ending the war, excluding nuclear issues

- Trump, in remarks to Israeli media, calls Iran’s proposal “unacceptable”

- Iranian leadership signals negotiations are no longer about compromise, but about the U.S. agreeing to Iran’s demands

The good takeaway is, both sides continue to be talking.

Maybe they aren't easily coming to an agreement, but there are talks and the more that there is diplomacy over attacks the better.

Source: amit

BREAKING: Gamestop is looking to buy Ebay, as per the WSJ.

Gamestop is currently worth $11B. Ebay is worth $46B.

Ryan Cohen has diluted in the past to raise cash, but this would need some strategic financing.

Do you think this makes sense?

Source: amit

Earrings growth in April was expected to be +13%.

We are coming in at +28%.

Big Tech crushed beyond imagination.

If you have a bear case, it can't be earnings.

What a month for markets.

Source: amit

what type of pump and dump are the market makers doing with big tech today after earnings 😂

$Meta Platforms(META.US) worst day since October 2025

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) back to $400

$Amazon(AMZN.US) quickest $14 reversal I’ve ever seen

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) taken down below $200

looks like $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) is the market’s favorite holding onto it’s +5%

pretty crazy swing from yesterday

Source: amit

well

big tech absolutely crushed

capex raised across the board

cloud growth rates smashed

guidance strong for Q2

$Meta Platforms(META.US) the only red name, doesn’t make much sense on 33% growth even if a small DAU miss because of Iran

but $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) crushed

show goes on

Source: amit

POWELL: I WILL BE STAYING ON THE FED AS GOVERNOR AFTER MY TERM AS CHAIR IS DONE

when asked why he's not retiring, Powell said he was going to but the DOJ investigation left him "no choice but to see things through" and stay on

basically a middle finger to Trump

Source: amit

BREAKING: In his last FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, Jerome Powell and the Fed have chosen to keep rates unchanged.

In March 2020, the FOMC under Chair Powell brought the federal funds rate down to a target range of 0.0% to 0.25%.

Inflation rose to the highest level in 40 years by 2022.

In July 2023, the Fed raised the benchmark rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, the highest rates we have seen in over 2 decades.

We will be ending his tenure now with rates at 3.5-3.75%.

Source: amit

Ugly day for two big retail names, $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) & $Robinhood(HOOD.US).

Amazing day for the AI Infra plays that continue to crush earnings like $Bloom Energy(BE.US) $Seagate Tech(STX.US) $Nuveen Select Tax Free Income Portfolio(NXP.US).

I think the broader question here, at this stage of the rally from the lows, is do you think there is an opportunity cost at being in a loser and transitioning it for a winner.

The loser, if the company is doing well, usually gets the dip buy because the price is a better bargain.

This market is rewarding the winner, even if the earnings multiple is massive (like Intel) or there barely are any earnings (like Bloom) as long as the trajectory continues to show that they will keep winning.

So, would you sell all your $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) to buy a $Sandisk(SNDK.US) or $Micron Tech(MU.US) here?

I’m not sure many would, but so far fintech and software have continued to dip even with good earnings as the market simply has rotated to companies that keep putting up strong numbers.

Just not sure many have the stomach to buy a chart up 3-4x YTD and sell their bags in fundamentally strong companies just to be in the current winning trade.

Source: amit

$Amazon(AMZN.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) earnings all tomorrow at once

going to be one of the craziest days all of us will experience in 2026

all those trillions moving back and forth on revenue and eps beats or misses lol

& most of our friends and family will just go about their lives and have no clue what’s happening at 4PM ET 😆

Source: amit

$Robinhood(HOOD.US)

ROBINHOOD Q1 2026 EARNINGS:

- Revenue $1.07B +15% YoY

- EPS $0.38 +3% YoY

- Adjusted EBITDA $534M +14% YoY

- Total Platform Assets $307B +39% YoY

- Robinhood Gold Subscribers 4.3M +36% YoY

- ARPU $157 +8% YoY

Overall, it was a strong quarter but fell short of expectations due to lower take rates across all assets. Trading volumes were strong and are improving in April, but the take rates lowered which led to a double miss.

I think the broader story so far in earnings has been around expectations vs reality and specifically if a company can decisively beat those expectations. The chip names, memory names, energy names, datacenter names are absolutely putting up beats of 50-100%, which was something Robinhood did last year.

Without those types of beats, which fintech and software haven't been able to give, it's just much harder for the street to rotate into those positions.

$Robinhood(HOOD.US) -9%

Source: amit

I feel like the people really worried about “buying the dip” today are people that are sitting in majority cash.

I don’t think $AMD(AMD.US) is the most amazing dip ever down from $350 to $320 after it went up from $195. Maybe Lisa Su crushes and it gets back up there, but it requires a catalyst now vs the general market momentum that brought all of the semiconductor names up.

I also don’t think $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) from $217 to $210 is some huge dip opportunity when it’s up from $165.

But, if you don’t think you will get another opportunity to buy $AMD(AMD.US) lower, I can understand rushing to buy in. It’s just the risk could be more skewed vs the reward because again, the name has had a massive run.

$Amkor Tech(AMKR.US) just demolished earnings but it’s down because it was up 80% YTD into the print.

$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) is down 9% but is up 74% YTD.

Same story with $Arm(ARM.US), $Celestica(CLS.US), $Broadcom(AVGO.US), and so many more names.

Maybe you have to nibble if you are only in cash but it seems like one of those days to just chill and not be super greedy given every overbought name is just doing what an overbought name does…which is pullback.

Source: amit

Stocks are down big this morning on a WSJ report that OpenAI missed internal revenue targets at the end of 2025.

Few thoughts on why this might not be as bad as it is being interpreted:

- Part of the reason OpenAI did not meet its revenue backlog is because they did not have the proper compute needs. Jassy, Dario, and Altman have all said if they have more compute, they could grow faster. The bottleneck of energy/power/land seems to be a much bigger story than “missing revenue targets” because if the compute constrains are the reason for the miss, that’s an issue with supply, not demand.

- Maybe OpenAI missed internal forecasts because of $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) and Anthropic seriously beginning to take marketshare. If that is true, that is NOT bearish semis/ai, that is more bearish OpenAI. The compute will just shift from OpenAI spending to Anthropic and Google spending. So, if OpenAI cancels a datacenter, it’s bad for the parties involved but if Google ends up taking up that datacenter, the same money continues to be spent on all the different providers that go into building out that compute.

- $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX.US) just did 18 green days in a row. It was looking for ANY reason to sell off. Obviously some names have just gotten way ahead of themselves, for example $Arm(ARM.US), which began to trade at 70 p/s. The WSJ article may have been what was needed to give a reason to a selloff which quite frankly did not need a reason after the run it’s had.

Overall, feels more like a general headline about a company not fully living up to its expectations vs a systematic issue around compute constraints.

Big Tech reports on Wednesday and all eyes will be on what they have to say around capex, roi, growth, and more.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Oracle(ORCL.US)

Source: amit

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Nvidia after hours continuing to climb.

$5.26T company.

I would imagine Jensen is smiling a little today, the stock has been essentially flat for the past 7 months.

Seems like investors are realizing that it is very hard to be bullish on AI, capex, semiconductors, and more without having exposure to the company at the center of it.

That doesn't mean that company will outperform many smaller names that simply have an easier path to doubling/tripling/etc. but it does mean that the most important one of those companies did not deserve to trade at 15x fwd after the greatest earnings in the history of the stock market.

An incredible story that will compound at 80% growth, reaccelerating, going into Q1 earnings this year.

Source: amit

So this Elon/OpenAI lawsuit…

Elon is looking for $134B in damages.

Let’s say he wins. OpenAI just raised $122B.

Most of that money will be going to $AMD(AMD.US), $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $Oracle(ORCL.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US), etc. to pay for their compute needs.

The only possible way to pay Elon would be to give him stock…

If Elon gets $134B on a company that will likely IPO at $1T, then he will effectively get 10% of the company 🤯

This is going to be the biggest high profile trial we have seen in decades for tech.

Source: amit

this $POET Tech(POET.US) story is just incredible

- only photonics stock to do nothing all year

- short report 2 weeks ago takes it down to $6.80

- CFO confirms a $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) order on a podcast a few days later

- stock jumps from $6.80 to $17

- Marvell comes out and says that was a breach of confidentiality

- stock down 45% in a day

the crazy thing about this is that the CEO of POET owns…7,000 shares.

what do people think? is it a buy the dip because their optics tech will be used somewhere else? CFO leaking news is just a never touch stock?

the south koreans are HEAVY in this name, many of them have been forming groups for the past year and sharing their DD.

last week was a huge win for them which created more fomo on this name across the world but today feels like a material reason for the stock to be down over the short report from a few weeks ago.

still has $430M in cash but barely any revenue and with a big order getting canceled…the hope of that revenue growth seems to be the reason the stock is getting hit.

how are people thinking of this one?

Source: amit