淡墨青衫

The short-term trend of the market has broken, but it does not mean the end of the bull market. The short-term upward trend of tech stocks represented by QQQ has been violently broken, with two consecutive days of heavy-volume bearish candles destroying the consolidation platform of the past two weeks. This is a short-term trend break and does not signify the end of the 2026 bull market. Such emotional panic selling usually triggers a technical oversold rebound within 48 hours. A recovery bullish candle is expected on Thursday or Friday, which is an opportunity to reduce or adjust positions rather than a signal to blindly add leverage. The core logic behind the plunge lies in the market's fading patience for the commercialization of AI...

Research institutions (TDC) have reported that Oracle may conduct large-scale layoffs to free up cash flow for the expansion of AI data centers, and some banks have shown cautious attitudes towards its financing. This event will not only affect one company; it marks the transition of AI investment from the "storytelling and market share grabbing" phase to the "return-focused and balance sheet-focused" phase. This has raised the "floor" of U.S. stock market volatility in February, and the market has begun to reassess the sustainability of AI infrastructure investments, especially the financing costs of high-capital-expenditure companies. If banks become cautious about financing AI projects, it will lead to higher capital costs for companies, thereby compressing valuation multiples...

Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as the next Fed chair. Warsh advocates a dual-track framework, exchanging a firm reduction in the balance sheet for lower benchmark interest rates. Rate cuts are positive for stock valuations, but balance sheet reduction drains liquidity, making the overall impact neutral to slightly negative. High-growth stocks and small-cap stocks face significant pressure, while quality stocks with strong cash flows are more resilient. In the bond market, short-term yields will decline, while long-term yields will rise due to deficit concerns, benefiting short-term bonds and hurting long-term bonds. Trump may achieve substantial control over the Fed by filling board seats...

Last night, the US stock market experienced a major earthquake. It wasn't just Microsoft—the entire software sector (SaaS) is going through a brutal 'repricing'. Here are the key takeaways for your reference: The twilight of SaaS? In the past, software companies relied on 'selling seats' for revenue. Now, AI agents can do the work of ten people, completely undermining the seat-based pricing model. The plunges in ServiceNow and Salesforce aren't due to poor performance—the market is questioning whether their business models will be disrupted by AI Agents. The tyranny of memory chips: Samsung and SK Hynix have allocated all their production capacity to HBM for AI...

The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5% - 3.75%, marking the first policy decision of 2026 and a pause following consecutive rate cuts last year. Economic growth remains robust, with softened language on labor market weakness. It is expected that there may be only one more 25 basis point rate cut in 2026, likely in mid-year, provided inflation continues to decline toward the target level.$Microsoft(MSFT.US) revenue and EPS both exceeded expectations, but due to slower cloud business growth and higher-than-expected capital expenditures ($37.5 billion), the stock price plummeted after hours. Long-term outlook remains positive...

The S&P 500 index is approaching 7,000 points, hitting a new high, while the Nasdaq continues to rise. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average performed poorly due to the drag from the healthcare sector. The day's trading volume was about 15% lower than the weekly average, indicating that large funds have not yet entered the market. The current rally is mainly driven by retail investors and algorithmic trading, creating a contradictory market state. Some are buying tech stocks betting on improved Fed expectations, while others are buying safe-haven assets like gold, anticipating major events ahead. Earnings reports are driving a rebound in risk appetite, with the market focusing on cash flow and economic resilience...

This week is one of the busiest weeks for U.S. stocks, with 102 companies in the S&P 500 set to report earnings, including tech giants like Apple, Meta, Tesla, and Microsoft. Due to geopolitical risks, the U.S. fiscal budget deadlock (government faces shutdown risk), and concerns over the dollar's credit crisis, funds are pouring into the precious metals market, driving gold prices higher toward the $5,700 target, while silver prices fluctuate sharply, surging intraday before retreating. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian goods if Canada reaches a trade deal with China. The New York Fed began inquiring about the yen exchange rate...

Next week is a life-or-death moment for U.S. stocks, with 4 out of the "Magnificent Seven" companies releasing earnings reports—will it be a battle of titans?! Will Powell stand firm against Trump in the Fed's decision? How will Intel's stock perform after its massive earnings crash? Are your positions ready for next week's rollercoaster ride~~~~ With the easing of Greenland tariff tensions this week, tech stocks rebounded mid-week, while the Russell 2000 Index, representing small-cap stocks, outperformed the S&P 500 for 14 consecutive trading days, setting the longest winning streak since 1996. Market breadth is clearly improving, and next week brings a flood of earnings reports from mega-cap stocks...

The market volatility on Friday was smaller than on Thursday, showing an overall fluctuating trend, which can be considered a "quiet day" after a week of significant fluctuations. The weekly chart closed with a lower shadow and a positive line. Although this week still saw a decline compared to last week, the appearance of the lower shadow indicates the strength of the rebound from lower levels, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. There is a possibility of further upward movement next week, but it may also first test around 6866 before rising. The performance in the latter half of next week will be crucial, as it will be affected by the earnings reports of several large-cap stocks. The short-term resistance level to watch is 7053. Against the backdrop of Intel's sharp decline, NVIDIA performed steadily...

The annualized growth rate of the U.S. real GDP in the third quarter of 2025 reached 3.7%, significantly higher than the long-term average. This indicates that the U.S. economy remains resilient under persistently high interest rates, with no signs of recession. The Trump administration softened its stance on tariffs, stating that it would not impose new tariffs on European allies and is expected to reach a framework agreement on the Greenland issue. This has removed a major external risk for the market, contributing to the recent strong rebound. The robust economic data suggests that the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has diminished, and high interest rates may persist for an extended period, putting pressure on high-valuation stocks...

Today's market movement was a very typical "tug-of-war between bulls and bears", with enthusiasm at the opening and calmness in the afternoon. Although there was a strong recovery in the morning session, profit-taking occurred after touching key levels. This trend indicates that while capital has ruled out the most extreme scenarios, it is still unwilling to immediately eliminate risk premiums. The morning rally was due to Trump explicitly ruling out the option of using force to acquire Greenland in his Davos speech, which was seen by the market as a cooling signal. The afternoon pullback was because the European Parliament suspended the progress of the trade agreement with the US and planned to hold an emergency summit, with the confrontation situation leading to a renewed rise in risk premiums. Gold prices continued to strengthen, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds eased slightly...

The escalation of tariff threats is the main reason. Trump proposed a 10% tariff on Europe starting in February, which may rise to 25% in June. In addition, the Supreme Court did not provide a clear ruling on the legality of the tariffs, increasing market uncertainty. SPY and QQQ fell below key support levels, shifting the bullish mode from offense to defense. The market rhythm is not a panic stampede but widespread selling pressure, with each rebound showing insufficient momentum. SPY fell below the key support level of 679 and may further drop to around 675 or even 671. QQQ closed below the 610 lifeline...

Can Trump photoshop?!

$S&P 500(.SPX.US)

This week's major events and trends in global markets and the tech industry: 1. Macroeconomic and policy risk inflation indicators are coming: The Fed's most-watched November core PCE inflation data will be released this week. If the data rebounds, it may impact market expectations for rate cuts. Trump tariff controversy: Trump said he would impose 10% tariffs on eight European countries (reasons include the Greenland acquisition dispute), which has drawn strong opposition from many European nations and threats to retaliate against major U.S. tech companies, potentially escalating geopolitical and trade risks. Political figure movements: Trump will attend the Davos Forum...