Fed Turns Hawkish. Hike Bets Keep Rising.

CPI Hot, NVDA Probe, Biotech Rip

Hot October CPI is resetting near-term Fed expectations higher, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) key-person risk lingers, Anthropic IPO terms are out (valuation framed as relatively modest versus prior hype), and earnings reactions are mixed with AI-infrastructure names still in focus. Oil is sliding on Iran de-escalation talk.

Macro: Hot CPI + Waller Raises the Bar

October CPI printed +0.4% MoM headline (vs ~0.3% expected) and +0.3% core (vs ~0.2% expected). Shelter, food, and energy contributed; core matched the higher end of recent readings.

Fed Governor Waller (pre-print comments, reinforced by the number) is leaning toward a 25 bp December hike and said a 50 bp move should be considered if core comes in around 0.3% or higher. Reuters poll consensus still sees one more hike in the cycle (to 4.00–4.25%). Markets had been pricing a high-probability 25 bp move; the hot print pushes the conversation toward stickier inflation and higher-for-longer risk.

Futures were mixed-to-soft pre-print (Dow up on oil, Nasdaq softer); post-print action has been risk-off with SPX/QQQ under pressure. Oil is a partial offset: Brent has slipped below ~$90–91 on Trump comments that the Iran conflict is “militarily effectively over” and positive momentum on talks, plus recovering Strait of Hormuz traffic. Lower oil helps the inflation narrative but is not fully de-risked (pipeline incidents, Houthi activity still noted).

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US): Key-Person Risk Continues

Nvidia’s board is running an independent investigation after reports (NYT and others) that CEO Jensen Huang had a close relationship with Alice Huang (Megaspeed executive), whom U.S. intelligence viewed as a Chinese intelligence asset. Huang admitted the affair in an employee note and apologized to his wife and the company; the board has said it has no reason to believe company secrets or national security were compromised. Trump has said the FBI is looking into it and expressed support for Huang.

FinTwit debate continues on valuation (some calling forward multiples historically cheap given AI demand) versus key-person and China exposure risk. Near-term catalyst remains the ongoing probe plus any customer or policy reaction; the fundamental AI demand story is not broken on the available evidence.

Anthropic IPO: Terms Set, Roadshow Underway

Anthropic set a $70–$78 range for 825 million Class A shares (ticker $Anthropic(ANT.US) on Nasdaq), implying up to ~$64.4B raised and an equity value around $1.02T (fully diluted ~$1.4T). A concurrent $26B private placement at the IPO price is locked in from $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $AMD(AMD.US), $Broadcom(AVGO.US), $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US), and $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US). Roadshow has launched; pricing expected mid-November with trading targeted around Nov 19 and a larger-than-usual retail allocation.

This is a major AI liquidity event and a test of remaining investor appetite after the recent tech pullback. Chip and cloud partners becoming large shareholders reinforces the circular financing narrative that has been debated on FinTwit.

Pre-Market Movers & Earnings Catalysts

$PepGen(PEPG.US) — Up ~120%. Positive Phase 2 FREEDOM2-DM1 10 mg/kg data: mean splicing correction 46.5% (highest reported in a multi-dose DM1 study), five of six patients >20% and four >50%, plus functional improvements (video Hand Opening Time ~53%, grip strength, mobility). Clean safety (no SAEs, DLTs, or discontinuations). DSMB cleared higher dose; 12.5 mg/kg cohort fully enrolled with data expected 1H27. Classic binary biotech catalyst that rewrote the near-term story.

$Sanmina(SANM.US) — Up ~15–20%. Strong Q4 FY26: revenue $3.86B (+84% YoY, beat), non-GAAP EPS $4.43 (big beat). Full-year revenue $14.5B (+79%). Strong FY27 guide ($17.5–19.5B revenue, EPS $15.50–17.50) driven by Cloud & AI systems ramp (including AMD Helios and other programs). Clear AI infrastructure beneficiary.

$Aaon(AAON.US) / $Quantum(QMCO.US) — Also gapping higher on strong earnings beats and growth.

$Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) — Down ~6–8%. Revenue beat ($268M, +73% YoY) and record backlog (~$3.57B, +52% QoQ, ~$1B new launch contracts), but EPS miss and softer Adjusted EBITDA outlook plus lingering Neutron timing uncertainty. Classic “beat on top line, miss on profitability/guidance” reaction in a high-multiple name.

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) — October revenue ~NT$586.9B (+59.7% YoY, +14.7% MoM), a 2026 high. Continues to confirm AI-driven foundry strength; Asia semis (Samsung, SK Hynix) were strong overnight.

$Digital Turbine(APPS.US) — Down ~23% on its report.

Tonight’s Watch: $Coreweave(CRWV.US)

CoreWeave reports after the close. Options have historically priced large moves and the stock has been volatile in both directions. It remains a high-beta AI infrastructure barometer (debt-funded GPU capacity, hyperscaler exposure). $Rigetti Computing(RGTI.US) and others also report AMC. High bar after the recent sector volatility.

Other Notes

• $Riot Platforms(RIOT.US) upgraded to Buy at Jefferies (PT raised sharply to $28 from $13).

• $CloudFlare(NET.US) upgraded to Buy at DZ Bank.

• Multiple $Draftkings(DKNG.US) downgrades (Wells Fargo, Berenberg) on valuation/growth concerns.

• Skydance (Paramount/WBD combination) outlining ~$6B cost cuts.

Broader FinTwit still debating AI rotation (chips/memory/optical vs. broader defensives) and whether token-efficiency or on-device models ultimately expand or compress data-center demand. Hot CPI is the dominant near-term overlay.

NFA / DYOR. This is a catalyst summary for discussion only, not investment advice. Markets move on new information; manage risk and position size accordingly.