NIO-SW

Latest figures show inflation cooling and growth strong. Core PCE fell to 3.0% year on year and 0.2% month on year, both below forecasts. GDP grew 2.2%, beating the 1.5% estimate.

This means rate hikes are likely off the table for now.☺️

But watch this Friday’s NFP closely. The jobs report is critical. Strong hiring and wages could still bring a hike back into play. Softer numbers would confirm the pause and build the case for future cuts.✌️

The market will be choppy or wild because of earnings so be cautious and DCA if you are interested in the stock on a long time horizon which is more than 5-10 years. If there any release of tweet or macro problems the market will implode from buy the rumor sell the news event. So chill and relax for the day may not be a bad decision.

MAs is placing $1.45b with five more asset managers to boost Singapore equities market. Do you think it helps?

Honestly, 1.45b compare to Singapore market size of 1.25 trillion 🙄.

I’m a very simple investor. I just check how my stocks are doing daily and whether there are any developments that affect my stocks. Since my portfolio is heavy on finance, reits with a small portion in tech, interest rate movement is the one I pay most attention to. For stocks I’m long on, short term price movements don’t matter so much. PCE will affect my portfolio more, I guess.

Inflation numbers will be key. If inflation surprises and goes lower, that will give a market that has been resilient so far impetus to fly.

William's comments ahead of the PCE signaled that fed is in a waiting and see stance for the immediate near term. Although acknowledging that further hike before year end, his comment against rushing the next decision lowered short-term rate hike probabilities.

Markets are rather poised at the moment. They have done remarkably well in the face of rising yields, oil prices etc. Inflation numbers if lower than expected might provide a boost.

$NIO Inc(NIO.US)

Context: Nio stock broke the support $4 level, extending a rough three month slide of almost 30%. That short-term frustration sits against a very different earnings picture. NIO has started to show positive free cash flow and a small adjusted profit while still running a premium battery electric vehicle business that scales fast.The bullish pitch on NIO is that premium volume, margin repair and recurring services can carry the company toward a self funded growth model. Q2 hits several of those checkpoints. Deliveries rose to 107,658 with premium ES8 and ES9 anchoring mix, and vehicle sales reached RMB 29.1b. Vehicle gross margin of 18.5% and an overall gross margin of 18.4% line up with the margin recovery narrative, helped by tighter R&D. The bearish view is that NIO remains a capital hungry China focused EV company where scale does not reliably convert into profitable, less risky growth. Q2 chips away at that with a small non GAAP profit, 18.4% gross margin and positive free cash flow, plus a cash balance of RMB 56.7b that reduces immediate funding stress. However, revenue fell short of expectations, and Q3 delivery guidance of 108,000 to 111,000 units sits only slightly above Q2 levels despite prior record months, which tempers the idea of uninterrupted volume momentum. Management also flags rising material and chip costs of roughly RMB 14,000 per car versus late 2025 and a further RMB 2,000 to 3,000 per car expected, which keeps margin sustainability in question.

My Trade: I started my position too late after the stock already had its bullish run from late last year. Moreover, current share price sits back at $3+ with a P/S ratio of below 1, signalling potential undervaluation.

Takeaway: The miss versus revenue expectations and softer Q3 guidance show the path is not smooth, but the key profitability milestones are beginning to appear in the actual numbers. @Captain's Treasure

Rate hike odds are currently inflated at around 60+% following Warsh's hawkish stance and that inflationary pressures are pushing the FED to make a decision sooner than expected. I expect a turbulent month of September for stocks, but I think this is just a mini wave crash, not the capsize of the boat.