Keppel Reit

Iggy's Journal: The Number Everyone's Watching Isn't The Fed, It's The 10-Year

15 September 2026, Late Night

Quick one before I turn in, still adjusting to UK time. The US 10-year Treasury yield ended last week at 4.97%, just below 5%. It briefly traded above 5% on Monday, but hasn't recorded a daily close above that level since 2007. JPMorgan strategists now see a quarter point hike as likely at the Fed meeting concluding Wednesday.

What I'm Doing About It

Higher global yields can affect financing conditions here, but that's not the same as saying it moves SORA directly, SORA responds to Singapore dollar money market conditions and MAS policy settings. What I'm actually doing is watching Lendlease and Keppel DC's coverage ratios more closely this week, not because either has a new problem, but because that's the channel worth tracking if borrowing costs drift higher.

The Numbers

August core CPI rose 0.3% month on month, 0.1 point above forecast, annual core rate held at 2.4%, in line with expectations. That pushed futures to price roughly a 90% probability of a hike this week. One portfolio manager called the Fed "behind the curve," expecting yields higher regardless of Wednesday. JPMorgan's desk sees a hike as likely but stays bearish on long end Treasuries given possible reactions to the statement and Chair Warsh's press conference.

My Personal Take

The 5% level itself doesn't mean much mechanically, nothing structurally different happens crossing a round number. But markets treat round numbers as decision points anyway, and that alone can move things. I'd rather watch how Wednesday's decision gets received than react to a yield print from before it.

Cheers, Iggy 🦖

$Keppel Reit(K71U.SG)

Context: Keppel REIT has been trading sideways, while markets are pricing in two Fed hikes by year-end, with a 25bps hike all but certain this week. That rate outlook is likely to cap near-term upside for rate-sensitive REITs.

My trade: I’m taking a cautious hold for now and watching how the market reacts to the rate path.

Takeaway: REITs will likely remain under pressure given their rate sensitivity, so it’s time to weigh an exit.

$Keppel Reit(K71U.SG)

Context: The prospect of Fed hikes is putting pressure on REITs, with higher rates keeping financing costs elevated and limiting near-term upside.

My trade: I’m holding my Keppel REIT position for now, given its quality office portfolio and resilient operating performance.

Takeaway: I’m comfortable holding through the rate uncertainty while waiting for the macro backdrop to improve.

$Keppel Reit(K71U.SG)

Context: Keppel REIT’s divestment of KR Ginza II looks encouraging, with the S$90.9m sale price 28.4% above its 2022 purchase price and 9.7% above valuation.

My trade: At S$0.875, I’m still comfortable holding as NPI and distributable income continue to grow, despite lower DPU from the enlarged unit base.

Takeaway: Continued capital recycling should help strengthen the portfolio and unlock value.

$Keppel(BN4.SG)Picked up Keppel at a more attractive level just before the ex-dividend date, and I’m happy to lock in the S$0.15 dividend. The pullback offered a good opportunity to add to a company with solid fundamentals, growing FUM and continued asset monetisation. As one of the SG blue chips, this will likely continue benefitting from the tailwind of the MAS’ EQDP.

$Keppel(BN4.SG)Keppel continues to show a constructive trend, holding around the S$11.10 level as investors remain positive on its transformation into an asset-light infrastructure and asset management platform. The company’s growing exposure to AI data centres, power infrastructure and connectivity provides strong long-term growth potential, while its data-centre powerbank has expanded to more than 1GW.

Fundamentally, Keppel continues to benefit from asset monetisation, growing recurring fee income and capital recycling. Its shift towards infrastructure, data centres and asset management could improve earnings visibility while reducing reliance on traditional capital-intensive businesses.

📊 With AI infrastructure demand remaining strong and Keppel continuing to execute on its growth strategy, the medium-term outlook remains positive.Hold at current levels and look for opportunities to accumulate on pullbacks towards S$10.80–11.00. A sustained break above S$11.30–11.50 could signal another leg higher.

$Keppel(BN4.SG)Keppel’s pullback to S$11.16 today is starting to look increasingly attractive. The share price is hovering around its 50-day (S$11.11) and 100-day (S$11.26) moving averages, with the 200-day support at S$10.95 not far below. With the stock also approaching its 11 August ex-dividend date, I’m watching closely and will likely add position if it approaches $11

$Keppel Reit(K71U.SG) Stronger sentiment across the S-REIT sector lifted Keppel Reit today in spite of the ex-div today. Strong H1 results point to an improving outlook as rising Singapore office rents, easing borrowing costs and contributions from recent acquisitions support earnings growth. Planned asset divestments should reduce leverage and create room for unit buybacks. With valuations still below book value, the risk-reward profile appears increasingly attractive. Will continue to hold!