Direxion S&P 500 Bull 3X

The best way to value high growth companies is using DCF (discounted cash flow) with multiple stages of growth rather than relative multiples or P/E relative to growth. With DCF, one can estimate the free cash flow assuming t1 years of super growth, t2 years of transition growth, and then perpetual or steady state growth. Contrary to what many value investors will tell you, perpetual or steady state growth for a company can exceed the growth in nominal GDP if the company has permanent advantages (first movers’ technology, patents, distribution, brand) that aren’t likely to be arbitraged away as more competitors enter the market.

S&P had one of its bigger one day drops yesterday in nearly 3 months as the broad selling continues. Chips sector was hit amongst the hardest, while consumers and other defensive stock gained a little. Back at home tdy, Reits gained quite a bit while banks held around the same.

When will the selling stop? High beta stocks are getting hit the hardest as investors pull out of the stock market to turn to bonds with higher yields amidst a relatively unstable equities market and expectations for yet another interest hike soon.

$VG S&P 500(VOO.US)

Context: The S&P 500’s 7,600 level is a key support to watch, coinciding with the 100-day moving average. I’m keeping an eye on whether the index can hold this level or if further downside is coming.

My trade: Using VOO as my S&P 500 proxy, I’ve started accumulating and may add more if the index breaks below support.

Takeaway: I’ll continue my monthly DCA, with deeper pullbacks offering opportunities to average down.

The US Treasury 10-year yield fell 19.3 bps to 4.952%, marking the largest single-day drop since March 2023. Rate hike expectations have vanished.

Global gold broke below $4,050 for the first time since early August; silver dropped below $55, while Brent crude rose above $113.

All signs suggest that rate hikes by year-end are unlikely, which will also impact US stock performance.

U.S. stocks edged modestly higher pre-market Friday (SPX +0.1%, NDX +0.4%) as tech partially recovered from Thursday’s AI-spending rout, the Nasdaq’s worst day since June. Brent crude rose 0.9% to $114/bbl and the 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.97%. S&P 2026 EPS estimates of $368 imply a 20.8x P/E and 4.8% earnings yield—below Treasuries, an inversion last sustained in the late-1990s. I expect treasury yields to retreat as the Iran war ends. I remain cautious on Tesla (220x 2026 P/E, PEG 5x) amid negative revisions, the continued commoditization of autonomy, and its stretched valuation.

Looking forward to REITs share prices adjusting upwards, I believe they’re current abit undervalued as compared to the yield they offer.

I believe the market pullback is healthy especially in tech. Much needed if we want the bull market to continue which has been pretty resilient considering all the headlines and narratives.

money rotating out of AI related stocks and moving into safer stocks and places. reits moving upwards finally after declining for so long, hope it lasts. for the brave and tech believer, now also good chance to dca into those tech stocks that youre aiming.

Good to see yields dropping, but.. people are still expecting military actions. Midterms is also coming soon, uncertain on what Trump is going to do next