I have been psychologically short $Netflix(NFLX.US) for years and believe this year has vindicated that psychological short.
Unfortunately I was way too much of a chicken to actually short/buy puts 😂In all seriousness, my bear case has always been that they cannot keep up content spend to justify their growth without massive hits. The massive hits have faded away which has significantly hurt the type of subscriber/adgrowth needed for the stock to expand from its premium multiple. YouTube’s algorithm was another bear case. How does Netflix compete with a creator economy that is growing rapidly without spending even more money? The move to buy Warner Bros, live sports, podcasting…all of it was to hide that they just don’t have the massive hits needed to keep growing. HOWEVER…at some point, the company becomes too cheap. Valuation is 5 year low and they are buying back a ton of stock. I genuinely don’t see how they get back to massive growth again without a MAJOR hit like Squid Games…all the ads/NFL/videogames/buybacks in the world won’t get the street excited without hits.But I wonder if the margin of safety has finally gotten to the point where their most is being meaningfully discounted (I do think they have a large moat with huge barriers to entry) and if the stock price is officially reflecting that.Are you buying the dip?$Netflix(NFLX.US) -5%Source: amit







