Gene Munster

More on the constraints. Cook says the availability of advanced modes in System on Chips (SoCs), not memory. 

The majority is on the Mac mini, Mac Studio and Mac Neo. Those products collectively account for about 3% of revenue. 

The bottom line is if not for the supply on the Mac, the guide would have been higher, by likely 1% or at most 2%. It's small and a positive. $AAPLSource: Gene Munster

$META getting more into physical AI (aside from smart glasses). They just acquired Assured Robot Intelligence to build humanoid robots. No terms given. My guess is they paid sub $5B. 

Big Tech (TSLA, GOOG, AMZN) appears all-in on robotics,and they'll be purchasing gear from smaller companies to build that future. My Innovator Deepwater Frontier Tech ETF ($LOUP) has a focus on smaller, high-conviction companies enabling the AI and robotics transformation.

To view LOUP’s holdings: Source: Gene Munster

Physical AI gets its time in the keynote (as expected).

I believe physical AI is going to be a meaningful growth driver for Nvidia starting in CY28. Today, only about 1% of Nvidia’s sales are used to deliver physical AI, which is reported as the Automotive and Robotics segment. I believe by CY30, the Automotive and Robotics segment will grow into a $70B+ annual business (up from my previous $50B estimate), a massive jump from the $2.3B reported last year. $NVDASource: Gene Munster

Last night Anthropic announced a multi year $200B commitment to $GOOG Cloud. 

The debate about can Anthropic make good on the deal misses the point. 

The big picture is this announcement underscores how early we are in AI, with the need for compute taking off on the heels of last Novembers step function improvement in many of the models utility.  

That’s good news for the entire AI model and infrastructure stack.Source: Gene Munster

$GOOG's Waymo is out raising money at about a $110B post. If this were a basketball game against $TSLA's Robotaxi, Waymo would be up 50–2. 

Spoiler alert: Tesla is poised to make a run.

Source: Gene Munster

Breaking $NVDA news: Trump is considering restarting H20 sales in China (Bloomberg). What it could mean for numbers:

Back in August, Jensen said China H20 could be a $50B revenue opportunity this year if fully sold in, with 50% annual growth.

The Street is currently modeling $317B in CY26 revenue, up 49% without China. 

If China comes back for the full CY26, total revenue would be about $367B, up 73% year over year.Source: Gene Munster

Thoughts going into $AAPL earnings.

Expectations:
Expectations are modest given over the past one month, AAPL has underperformed the Mag 7 and Nasdaq.
Past month performance: Nasdaq up 17%.
GOOG: 34% 
AMZN: 28% 
NVDA: 19% 
META: 13% 
MSFT: 11% 
AAPL: 10% 
TSLA: 2%

* Over the past three months, AAPL is up 4.5% vs. Nasdaq up 5%.

March Quarter:
➡️The Street is expecting iPhone to be up 20.6% YoY. I expect 22% based on China. 
➡️Services growth expectations of 14% should be in line. 
➡️Gross margins should be in line with the Street at 48.4%.

June Guide
➡️I expect guidance for June to call for 10–12% YoY growth. The Street is at 9%. I believe the difference is iPhone.
➡️I expect them to talk down margins by 50bps q/q, The Street is looking for a 80bps decline to 47.6%.

Key Topics of the Call
➡️Margins: How will the component environment impact margins in the back half? Last quarter, Cook said changes are likely and it’s too early to determine the impact. The Street is modeling for gross margin to decline from 48.4% in March to 47.6% in June and 47.4% in September. I think they have that right.
➡️Ternus is the upside case: Can Ternus start to convince investors that he will bring new AI innovation, and when will we see those products? If successful, AAPL multiple will go up. 
➡️AI: Any updates on the new Siri (aka Apple’s AI chops), which is expected to be previewed at WWDC. Timing of the rollout and how they plan on making money from it.Source: Gene Munster

Jensen takes the mic for three minutes:

OpenAI: Confirmed they are nearing an expanded partnership (following reports of a $30B+ equity stake).

Meta: Says things are "going well," though avoided addressing Meta’s recent pivot to AMD for certain workloads.

Then turned it over to Q&A.Source: Gene Munster