NVDA251205C180000.US

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

NVIDIA: AI Growth Still Dominates, but Expectations Are the Risk

NVIDIA remains the strongest AI-chip franchise, but the setup is becoming more balanced. Its latest reported Q1 FY2027 delivered $81.6bn revenue (+85% YoY), with Data Center up 92% to $75.2bn and a strong 74.9% gross margin. Q2 guidance of $91bn implies another 12% sequential jump. (NVIDIA Newsroom⁠)

Fundamentally, FY2026 revenue reached $215.9bn (+65%), net income $120.1bn and EPS $4.90. The concern is margin compression: FY2026 gross margin fell to 71.1% from 75.0%, while operating expenses rose 41%. (NVIDIA Newsroom⁠)

Technically, NVDA closed at $208.48 on August 24, down 2.9%, with RSI around 22—oversold but still bearish. (MarketWatch⁠) Valuation around 24–25x forward earnings is actually more attractive than AMD and Broadcom, making NVDA the strongest risk/reward among major AI semiconductors. (Yahoo Finance⁠)

Option strategy: Prefer covered calls 21–35 DTE, targeting $225–$230 strikes, ~0.20–0.30 delta. Avoid selling immediately before earnings because implied volatility is elevated. After earnings, premium collection becomes more attractive if NVDA holds above $200.

View: BUY/HOLD. Fundamentally #1; valuation increasingly reasonable, but earnings expectations leave little room for disappointment.

TSMC: Demand for AI compute will 5x annually in coming years, leading overall system compute in 2029 to 50x that of 2024, media report, citing April Li, head of AI and HPC Business Development. TSMC estimates 30 to 40GW per year of AI data centers will be built per year, compared to 5 to 6GW of data centers historically. New advances are vital to keep pace, and TSMC aims to have A12 in mass production in 2029, and 14x-reticle size CoWoS packaging in 2028, and more. By 2030, a single AI chip package will hold over 1 trillion transistors, she said. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

NVIDIA LPU supports 3 types of disaggregated inferencing:

$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)Last week, QQQ was relatively quiet. Thursday’s rally was driven mainly by NVIDIA’s strength, but Friday’s hawkish Fed comments quickly erased part of the gains. It felt like the index was still lacking a clear catalyst beyond AI leadership.

I kept my QQQ DCA at the minimum level. Valuations are simply hard to ignore, and the elevated CAPE ratio makes it difficult for me to increase exposure aggressively despite the resilient trend.

My takeaway is to stay patient. I’d rather keep adding slowly than chase a market that already prices in a lot of optimism.

@Captain's Treasure

📢 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗡: $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) NVIDIA Invests $3.5 Billion in MediaTek as Companies Expand AI Partnership

Just a quick macro note.

With no dot plots and little guidance on rate hikes, traders place extra weight on Kevin Walsh speech. a hawkish hint can now cause a relatively huge wave in the market

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

Context: A general sum up of positive news from TSMC over the past week. TSMC is preparing to manufacture Xiaomi’s Xring O3 processor using its 3nm process. The deal broadens TSMC’s customer base in AI-enabled consumer devices and autonomous-driving applications, reinforcing demand for its highest-margin technology.

There were also reports of hedge fund selling Sandisk shares and rotating into TSMC highlighting preference for TSMC’s exposure to the semiconductor and AI infrastructure cycle. The underlying business remains strong too. A reported 44.7% July revenue increase underscores powerful AI-related demand and supports expectations for robust results and guidance. TSMC and Sony agreed to invest $4.7 billion in a joint venture for next-generation smartphone image sensors, with mass production expected in 2029. The project could add another strategic growth avenue, although revenue is several years away.

My Trade: Opened a small position last week ahead of Nvidia's earnings as I expected Nvidia's results to carry the AI sector higher. A calculated risk that paid off before the sell off on Friday.

Takeaway: While the short term purchase was validated by the opportunity, I still think this cost price may be a little too high for my comfort. If possible, I would like to average down below $400. @Captain's Treasure

Rate odds soared on Friday as stocks sold off after indication from Warsh that the possibility of rising interest rates have increased and that it may come soon than expected if they are not able to keep to the targeted 2% inflation. Stocks sold off broadly, including Nvidia, erasing almost most gains from another stella earnings just a day before.

“Memory is a bubble.” Explain this then, KOSPI bears:

Warsh’s hawkish tone reinforces the Fed’s focus on persistent inflation rather than recent cooling data. The sharp rise in September hike expectations signals greater policy uncertainty and could keep Treasury yields elevated, strengthening the dollar while pressuring rate-sensitive equities, particularly growth and technology stocks. However, the Fed remains data-dependent, with upcoming employment and inflation reports likely to determine the September decision.

US stocks mixed pre-market after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech lifted September rate hike odds to 62%. I am skeptical the Fed will move in September given slowing jobs and stable inflation. Brent rose 2% on renewed US-Iran strikes. 2- and 10-yr treasury yields eased, #BTC dipped but is +21% in August. Chip stocks were mixed (NVDA +0.5%). 2026 S&P EPS are now up +31% y/y to $346 on AI and energy sector gains, putting the S&P 500 2026 P/E at 21.2x, matching the 10-year yield. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) amid falling long-term estimates, the ongoing commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a 210x 2026 P/E versus +35% long-term earnings growth implying a 6x PEG, by far the highest among the Mag 8.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

🚀📉 NVIDIA: The High-Stakes Race & The 2027 Capex Cliff

Nvidia delivered stellar results with revenue 96.2B last week and these numbers reveal a critical vulnerability: rising concentration and a looming 2027 capex cliff.

📍 Concentration Risk: Data Center makes up 91.77% of total revenue now (up from 41% in 2022).

The Big 4 hyperscalers contribute approximately 55% of Data Center sales and just four customers accounted for ~78% of that segment earlier this year.

The business is heavily top-customer dependent.

Let be objective and do a simple fair “STRESS” test and see what happens to Nvidia share price with different growth rates.

⏰ 2027 Sensitivity (The Downside Asymmetry):

The market prices in 25–28% annual capex growth. But the stress test shows what happens when spending slows:

• 0% growth → -26% downside

• -20% spend → -16% to -43% drawdown

• -50%+ cliff → -50% to -60% crash (toward $90–$110)

⚠️ The Bigger Risk: Multiple Compression

The real danger is not just missing revenue. It is the P/E ratio collapsing when the “perpetual growth” story breaks.

History shows valuation contracts long before earnings do. Do you agree? Welcome to comment and discuss 😘.

Full breakdown in the infographic! 👉

Not financial advice. Do your own DD😁.

It looks like Warsh is hawkish but is he really? He has to look credible as data still points to inflation being sticky.

Increase rate will help banks and disfavored businesses that require to take loans or those who require to refinance soon. REIT most likely will be down in the short term but it is fall sharply will be a good time to get in DCA when everyone is fearful of REIT but might provide a good dividend play in SG.

Nothing surprising with Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. He has to state what is in line with the data and data does not point to inflation being tamed yet.

Warsh is just dodging the question and trying to shift it to the market. But market doesn’t seem to buy it

Markets are caught between strong AI earnings and hawkish Fed fears. Geopolitics adds volatility. Short term choppy, but Nvidia at 217.55 shows AI theme is still driving flows.

Any weakness in the REITs sector is an opportunity to consider for a long term investor. For many, they have or are giving up on REITs but one man's poison is anothers gourmet buffet.