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0818 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry
1) The 30Y UST yield climbed to 5.32%, the highest since 2007, with the 10Y nearing 5%. The breakdown in U.S.-Iran talks fueled a 3-day oil rally, while global stocks and bonds weakened in tandem and Japan fell over 2%.Large fiscal deficits, oil-driven inflation, and heavy AI infra issuance are pushing up the long end. Equity multiples and risk appetite are under pressure.Higher long-end yields compress valuations for long-duration tech growth. Geopolitics are supporting oil and reinforcing sticky inflation, leaving risk assets under near-term pressure. Financing demand for compute and AI infrastructure continues to ramp...Meta was around 590 on Friday. closed 565 on Monday.
so the market saw a trial with a trillion dollar headline on it and took 4% off. that's the whole reaction 🤷
either everyone decided the number is theatre, or nobody has actually worked out what a forced teen redesign does to ad revenue.
i lean toward the first. but 4% off isn't the kind of discount that makes me want to size up.
watching, no action.
WSJ: off-balance-sheet commitments across nine big tech filings
> Total: roughly $3.0T, mostly AI related, sourced from filing footnotes
> Composition: $1.2T uncommenced leases + $1.9T purchase commitments (chips, equipment, energy, services)
> $Meta Platforms(META.US) : $347B future lease commitments
> $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) : $811B purchase and contractual obligations
> $Oracle(ORCL.US) : off-balance-sheet lease commitments up about 30x in four years
Note: the $1.2T uncommenced lease figure is roughly 4x the prior year disclosure. None of it is undisclosed. It sits in the footnotes.
Meta Platforms opened its social media addiction trial in Oakland on Monday, with jury selection completed the previous week. Four states are seeking penalties of up to $1.4 trillion, and a further 29 states have joined claims under the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act.
The headline exposure is unlikely to be the operative risk. A monetary penalty is a one-time charge against a company generating substantial free cash flow. The remedy sought alongside it, court-mandated changes to how Facebook and Instagram are designed for minors, would be a permanent constraint on engagement and therefore on ad inventory.
Shares closed at $565.76, down 4.08 percent. The move appears to price the fine rather than the remedy. $Meta Platforms(META.US)
A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.
Here's a full recap:1. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is backing OpenAI’s Ohio AI campus with a $1.5B investment in SB Energy and support for an initial 4.25GW of AI infrastructure at the PORTS-Pike campus. The project includes an option to expand to the full 8GW. SB Energy will build and operate the site under a 20-year OpenAI lease, with capacity coming online in phases starting in 2028. SB Energy and SoftBank also plan at least 10GW of new power generation and $4.2B of regional grid investment tied to the buildout.2. Anthropic’s revenue run rate has reportedly surged ahead of its IPO, rising to more than $65B in July 2026 from $47B in May and $9B at the end of 2025. The company also posted over $11.5B in preliminary revenue for its latest completed quarter, up from $787M a year ago, while generating positive adjusted operating income. Anthropic has confidentially filed to go public and could debut on Wall Street as soon as this fall.3. U.S. interest expense on the national debt has reached a record $1.4 trillion over the last 12 months, with debt-servicing costs nearly tripling since 2020. If rates stay near current levels, interest payments are projected to rise to $1.7 trillion by November 2028, putting them on pace to overtake Social Security as the government’s largest expense for the first time. The move comes as the 30-year yield hits its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year Treasury yield has crossed 4.7%.4. Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel says the $SPY S&P 500 could reach 9,000 over the next 12 months, while maintaining a 7,750 base-case target. He argues the usual bull-market killers — recession, sharply higher long-term yields, and extreme investor chasing — still have not shown up. At the same time, 121 S&P 500 stocks now have negative beta to the index, the highest number since the 2000–2001 dot-com unwind, highlighting how unusual market internals have become.5. Fabrinet $Fabrinet(FN.US) reported Q4’26 revenue of $1.32B, beating estimates of $1.27B and up 45% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $4.10 versus $3.82 expected, up 55% YoY, while operating income was $134.25M and net income reached $139.3M. For Q1, Fabrinet guided revenue to $1.38B–$1.43B, ahead of estimates of $1.32B, with adjusted EPS of $4.10–$4.25 versus $3.96 expected. Management said the company delivered record quarterly revenue above its guidance range and remains optimistic about the strength of the business and durability of its growth trends.6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.8M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.1M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 1.3M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.0M contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 980K contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 964K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 849K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 751K contracts, and $AMD(AMD.US) with 572K contracts.7. AI video startup Higgsfield raised a $400M Series B at a $5.4B valuation, with investors including Goldman Sachs, Intel, and DST Global. The 2-year-old company’s annualized revenue reached $700M in August, up from just $20M a year ago, while its user base has grown to more than 30M across 238 countries and territories. Most revenue now comes from businesses using Higgsfield’s AI tools to create marketing content.8. Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US) is reportedly preparing to launch its purpose-built Cybercab in Austin as soon as this month, according to The Information. The two-seat robotaxi has no steering wheel or pedals, with Tesla planning to start with employee rides on public roads before adding Cybercabs to its Austin Robotaxi service days later. Tesla began Cybercab production in Texas last month and is continuing testing while training local first responders ahead of the rollout.9. Uber $Uber Tech(UBER.US) is investing in Zipline as the companies expand drone delivery for Uber Eats. The goal is to reach 1M drone deliveries per day by the end of 2029, with Uber expecting drones to enable faster deliveries over longer distances. The company sees drone delivery becoming a meaningful growth driver for Eats as it pushes deeper into autonomous logistics.10. China’s credit data weakened sharply in July, with net new loans falling by $50.4B, only the third monthly decline this century and more than 3x worse than expected. Lending to the real economy was even weaker, with net repayments of $87.5B, the largest monthly drop in records going back to 2002. While aggregate financing still rose by $207.7B, nearly all of the increase came from $192.9B in government bond issuance rather than private-sector borrowing, pointing to soft corporate investment, weak household demand, and continued pressure in property.11. Morgan Stanley sees Amazon $Amazon(AMZN.US) with a bull-case path to $500/share by year-end 2027, driven by AWS potentially scaling toward $1T in annual revenue over the next 8–10 years. Analyst Brian Nowak says that scenario could support roughly $500B of company-wide EBIT, while the firm’s base-case price target remains $335. Morgan Stanley argues Amazon’s $1T AWS vision reinforces the size and ROIC of the AI infrastructure opportunity, with AWS currently around $170B annualized and management seeing AI margins and returns tracking similarly, or even slightly ahead, of where core AWS was at the same stage. The key constraint remains compute capacity, with Morgan Stanley estimating Amazon can bring on 6–8GW of compute capacity in 2026/2027 and potentially add around 8GW per year going forward if execution continues at pace.12. UBS expects Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) to beat FQ2 revenue estimates by roughly $3B–$4B, with revenue reaching around $94B–$95B. For FQ3, UBS sees guidance in the $107B–$108B range and believes revenue could ultimately exceed $110B. Analyst Timothy Arcuri says Blackwell demand remains stable, while Rubin units are starting to layer in ahead of a bigger FQ4 step-up as Rubin sell-in accelerates toward roughly 500,000 GPU units per month and Blackwell begins winding down. UBS argues the numbers matter more than the AI infrastructure narrative, and expects investors to gain more confidence in a path toward $15+ EPS in C2027 and $20 EPS in C2028. The firm also says memory-driven capex inflation means compute supply is still falling short of demand, which could support another major backlog step-up on the earnings call.WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.Source: amit
$AppLovin(APP.US)
Talked to a former Applovin employee over the weekend, here’s some of his thoughts:- Applovin’s business has been ads within mobile games. It is very profitable, 1B people per day play games, and $Meta Platforms(META.US) or $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) have not been able to break their moat. But, growth rates have slowed down from 70% to now 55% which is incredible, but not good enough for the street because they don’t see the TAM expanding yet. - Mobile gaming opportunity is large but viewed as saturated and very high growth rates likely aren’t sustainable in this one category.- Company has guided to keeping their growth at 30%+ but the decline in YoY growth rates have hurt sentiment. Applovin can change this by showing their Ecom expansion can increase the TAM but the company has failed to meaningfully show this which is why the stock has been stuck. The Q2 call didn’t really address the TAM expansion either which is why the stock has been falling so rapidly since then. - He said management is exceptional and understands what they are doing, it’s not a team to bet against, but the problem is the street is not convinced their growth can expand beyond gaming yet. He himself is also not fully convinced and feels ready to sell a significant portion of stock if the Q after holiday season doesn’t show the TAM expanding beyond mobile games.- He also said the short reports are pretty much just noise. Nothing ever serious has come from them and they aren’t rooted in anything real.Stock is down 50% YTD…obviously looks like a bargain and I wonder how much lower the street can send it. Only major software large cap that hasn’t recovered…is anyone buying it here?Source: amit
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) continues to solidify its role as a premier infrastructure backbone of the artificial intelligence boom. Currently trading around $392.99, the stock has generated notable traction following massive multi-year AI supply commitments from tech hyperscalers like Alphabet (Google), Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Rather than directly fighting Nvidia in the GPU arena, Broadcom dominates the specialized market for custom AI accelerators (ASICs/XPUs) and high-performance networking technology, where management expects AI semiconductor revenue to exceed $100 billion by fiscal year 2027. This explosive demand is backed by an impressive backlog of new bookings exceeding $30 billion, giving the company stellar long-term revenue visibility into 2028.
Despite its stellar core fundamentals, investors should keep a close eye on emerging structural shifts and risk factors. While its custom chip business grew at a staggering 143% year-over-year pace to $10.8 billion last quarter, the stock has experienced recent volatility over its massive off-balance-sheet AI chip-financing vehicle. Analysts note that this specialized financing arm could carry up to $370 billion in senior debt by 2029. Though technically decentralized from Broadcom’s primary balance sheet, the company’s contingent multi-billion-dollar backstop on customer lease obligations creates a unique layer of customer concentration and credit risk if capital expenditures among tech giants start to cool.
Valuation-wise, AVGO remains an incredibly compelling narrative for growth-oriented portfolios. The stock trades at roughly 24.3 times forward earnings for fiscal 2027, making it remarkably cheaper than many of its high-flying semiconductor peers. For long-term investors looking to play the next phase of data center expansions without bearing extreme valuation risk, Broadcom presents a powerhouse setup heading into its upcoming September 2026 earnings report.
$Meta Platforms(META.US) Opening arguments begin Tuesday in the trial that California Attorney General Rob Bonta is co-leading against Meta, following a litany of allegations that the company fostered addictive behavior in teens and children. The trial involves a coalition of 29 state attorneys general in a unified case against Meta that was brought in 2023, and will be argued by lawyers representing California, Colorado, New Jersey and Kentucky. The stakes are enormous as leading government officials across the country push for Meta to be held accountable for allegedly violating federal and state laws, including the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA) and various consumer protection statutes. Earlier this month, Meta lost a case in New Mexico that will require the company to make some changes to its services and pay nearly $1 billion. But California carries such power and influence that a bad result in Meta's home state could lead to much steeper penalties, including a broader overhaul that forces fundamental alterations to key algorithms. The stock is hence still trading under immense bearish pressure as the stakes are high following these lawsuits. The outcome from the jury will determine how Meta and other social media giants move forward to comply with strict law enforcement. @Captain's Treasure
WSJ: Nine top tech companies had some $3 trillion of off-balance-sheet commitments mostly related to AI.
A lot of spending going into this buildout...$Meta Platforms(META.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US)Meta Platforms (META) has found its footing around $589.85 per share, staging a resilient comeback after volatile reactions to its Q2 2026 financial update. The tech giant continues to flex its core muscles, posting an impressive 28% year-over-year revenue surge to $60.80 billion, heavily supported by a 14% jump in ad impressions and a 12% rise in average ad prices across Facebook and Instagram. However, this top-line success is locked in a tense tug-of-war with skyrocketing artificial intelligence expenditures. Massive legal charges and unprecedented server expansions pushed total expenses up 55%, shrinking operating margins down to 31% and triggering a staggering 90% plunge in quarterly free cash flow to $784 million.
Despite the profit squeeze, Meta is aggressively laying the foundation to turn its massive infrastructure into a diverse money-maker. The company is actively scaling automated ad campaign tools like Advantage+ and rolling out monetization frameworks that include a “Meta One” personal AI assistant subscription, volume-based API tokens, and computing power auctions. While Wall Street remains deeply divided over the narrowed full-year capital expenditure forecast of $130 billion to $145 billion, long-term bulls view the recent drop to a $520 trough as a prime accumulation window. With proprietary valuation metrics like GuruFocus valuing the stock as 29.3% undervalued against an intrinsic estimate near $836.91, Meta remains a high-stakes, high-reward battleground for growth investors.
$Meta Platforms(META.US)I’m still confident in Meta despite the recent drop in my position. The stock has started moving upwards again, which gives me more confidence in holding it long term. Meta’s strong advertising business and its move towards lending out cloud computing capacity could create another source of revenue, making me optimistic about its future growth.
Fellow investor @qwq built a fully autonomous AI trading Agent called "Flint" in his spare time: Claude decides whether to act, code handles risk control and order placement, and the whole thing runs unattended on a single Mac mini. In July it completed 69 trades; of 124 intents, 31 were blocked by its own risk gate. Paper-trading return: about 3%.
J.P. Morgan: AI Accelerators
> Rapid Overall Market Expansion: Total annual AI accelerator unit shipments are projected to grow dramatically from 3.3 million units in 2023 to 23.3 million units by 2027E.> NVIDIA's Continued Dominance: NVIDIA GPUs lead the market significantly throughout the period, growing from 1.7 million units in 2023 to an estimated 9.9 million units in 2027E, though their share of total units shifts as competition scales.> Surge in Custom/Alternative Accelerators (ASIC/XPUs): Alternative hardware lines—including Google TPUs, AWS Trainium/Inferentia, Meta MTIA, and Microsoft MAIA—are scaling rapidly. By 2027E, custom ASICs/XPUs are projected to make up 53% of total unit shipments, surpassing traditional GPUs (47%).> Significant Short-Term Growth Spikes: The market saw triple-digit year-over-year growth in 2024 at 128%, with strong continued expansion expected through 2026E (62%) and 2027E (43%).$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US)
$Meta Platforms(META.US) Meta failed to obtain an emergency order pausing a landmark trial slated to begin this week involving claims from dozens of state attorneys general alleging the social media giant addicts children and has caused a youth mental health crisis. A three-judge panel for the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit in a ruling said the court lacked the jurisdiction to review Meta’s early appeal and dismissed it. The ruling means Meta must defend against a possible US$1.4 trillion penalty request by the state AGs at the trial, which is scheduled to begin with jury selection on Wednesday in federal court in Oakland, California. Opening arguments begin on Aug 18, and the trial is expected to last several weeks. Meta is facing a torrent of legal attacks across the country from state AGs, consumer attorneys, and school districts over its role in harming youth mental health through Instagram and Facebook. The company must pay an almost US$950 million total penalty in a separate case brought by the New Mexico attorney general in state court. In that case, a jury returned a US$375 million verdict in March, and the judge last week tacked on an additional US$567 million Meta must pay the state to setup a mental health fund. As Meta continues to navigate through these waves of legal attacks, they will need to find ways to upgrade their policies to protect consumers or continue to face hefty charges that could affect their profits. @Captain's Treasure
A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.
Here's a full recap:1. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) announced partnerships with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to create independent AI compute financing platforms designed to mobilize more than $500 billion of third-party capital over time. The goal is to turn Nvidia compute and full-stack AI infrastructure into an investable asset class, helping fund the global buildout of AI factories while giving Nvidia customers access to large pools of capital at attractive rates. Jensen: “In AI, compute is revenue. NVIDIA compute is uniquely suited for this role. It is broadly adopted, flexible across models and workloads, fungible and transferable across customers and operators, and continuously improved through CUDA software. That is why we are bringing the world’s leading long-term capital providers together to independently underwrite AI infrastructure. These financing platforms will help customers access scarce compute at scale and build the DSX AI factories that will power every industry and country in the age of AI.”2. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) released Muse Glimmer, a new 30B-parameter dense AI model with open weights that can run locally, with weights for Muse Spark 1.2 expected to follow soon. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg also said he believes everyone will eventually have a personal AI agent that understands them and what they care about.3. Chinese humanoid robot makers accounted for more than 97% of global shipments in 1H26, with volumes more than tripling to 19,100 units. Agibot led the market with a 44% share, while industrial and commercial use cases made up over 70% of shipments. Unitree Robotics is also going public on the Shanghai Stock Exchange at a $9 billion valuation, with its IPO oversubscribed by retail investors by 8000%. 4. Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) plans to unveil its next-generation Maia 300 AI chip in September, according to The Information, marking progress after a slower start for its in-house silicon program. Microsoft reportedly plans to expand internal use of Maia while also targeting major external customers. The move could give Microsoft more control over the AI infrastructure powering its services as demand for compute continues to surge.5. Rocket Lab $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) reported Q2’26 revenue of $234M, slightly ahead of estimates of $231M, up 62% YoY. EPS came in at -$0.08 versus -$0.07 expected, while backlog reached a record $2.36B, up 137% YoY. For Q3, Rocket Lab guided revenue to $250M–$265M, above estimates of $239M, with non-GAAP gross margin expected at 35%–37%. Non-GAAP gross margin in Q2 was 41.5%, while net loss was $49.3M. Business highlights included the announced Iridium acquisition and the launch of GHOST, a globally deployable launch system. Management said backlog growth, combined with new Q3 deals, represents more than $1B in new contracts across launch and space systems, positioning Rocket Lab to become a self-launching, tier-1 space power.6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.6M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 1.9M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.2M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 945K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 880K contracts, $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 803K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 778K contracts, and $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 704K contracts.7. Hims & Hers $Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) reported Q2’26 revenue of $753.2M, beating estimates of $700M, up 38% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $60.3M versus $47.2M expected, while subscribers rose 19% YoY to 2.891M. U.S. revenue grew 16% YoY to $621.8M, while Rest of World revenue surged 1,641% YoY to $131.4M, helped by the close of the Eucalyptus acquisition in June. For Q3, Hims guided revenue to $880M–$900M, well above estimates of $793M. For FY26, the company raised revenue guidance to $3.1B–$3.3B versus $2.93B expected, while reiterating increased conviction in its 2030 targets of at least $6.5B in revenue and $1.3B in adjusted EBITDA.8. Earnings season is nearly complete, and results have been much stronger than expected. With almost 90% of S&P 500 companies reported, Q2 EPS is now projected to rise 30% YoY excluding investment mark-ups from Alphabet and Amazon, well above the 22% consensus forecast from July 1. Including those one-time gains, EPS growth jumps to nearly 50% YoY. Meanwhile, 76% of companies have beaten EPS expectations, matching last quarter’s beat rate, which was the highest since 2021.9. Intel $Intel(INTC.US) announced a proposed $15B underwritten public offering of common stock, with proceeds intended for general corporate purposes, including CapEx and working capital. The company said customer demand remains strong, driven by major investment in AI compute, with growth opportunities across physical AI, purpose-built silicon, advanced packaging, and external wafers. Intel also expects to give underwriters a 30-day option to buy up to an additional $2.25B of common stock, while emphasizing that the raise is meant to support growth opportunities, maintain balance sheet strength, and preserve its investment-grade rating.10. Trading volume across the 7 leveraged ETFs tied to $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) SK Hynix has collapsed nearly 90% to less than 100M shares/day after regulators raised the minimum cash deposit required to trade the products, effective July 31. The stock decline and tighter rules have shaken out retail investors who chased the rally, with roughly 1T won ($710M) in retail accounts facing forced liquidation in June and another 993B won ($700M) in July, the two largest forced-liquidation months this year. Margin loan balances have fallen to 27.4T won ($19.3B) as of August 4, the lowest level of the year. Morgan Stanley estimates the deleveraging process is now more than halfway complete, though foreign investors remain cautious after selling $30B in June, another $6.2B in July, and $4.3B so far in August.11. Bank of America is sticking with its call for 75 bps of Fed rate hikes this year despite weaker labor data. U.S. payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, while prior months were revised down by another 103,000. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, wage growth slowed to 3.2%, and labor-force participation slipped. Even with hiring softening, BofA still expects the Fed to begin raising rates in September, arguing that inflation remains the central concern.12. Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) today said customers remain largely insensitive to memory pricing as data center demand continues to outstrip supply, with the company saying it cannot meet even half of current customer needs. Management also pointed to demand signals extending multiple years, though it did not provide a specific update to quarterly guidance.WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.Source: amit
⚡ 𝐔𝐏𝐃𝐀𝐓𝐄: Texas government says $Meta Platforms(META.US) Meta Platforms has committed to comply with state data-center standards.
📢 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗡: $Meta Platforms(META.US) Zuckerberg Unveils Meta's AI Vision, Resumes Open-Weight Model Releases
👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:➤ 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗮 will resume releasing 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗻-𝘄𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 AI models.➤ Company supports allowing 𝗔𝗜 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻.➤ Zuckerberg seeks 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 government cooperation on frontier AI.➤ Meta proposes sharing 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀 with regulators during development.➤ Meta plans a $𝟭 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗜𝘀 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗙𝘂𝗻𝗱.➤ Fund will support communities hosting Meta's data centers.➤ Meta's board will oversee 𝗔𝗜 𝘀𝗮𝗳𝗲𝘁𝘆 standards and model approvals.➤ Zuckerberg advocates industry-wide 𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱-𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹 AI governance.➤ Vision centers on 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗔𝗜 agents controlled by users.➤ Zuckerberg calls for a fully 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗲 AI mode protecting user data.👉 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀:➤ Signals Meta's renewed commitment to 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗻 AI development.➤ Could influence future 𝗔𝗜 regulation and government oversight frameworks.➤ Reinforces investment in AI infrastructure alongside community benefits.➤ Highlights growing focus on AI governance, privacy, and user control.👉 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁:𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸 𝗭𝘂𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗿𝗯𝗲𝗿𝗴, CEO of Meta:Users, not developers, should set an agent's values, and AI should support a fully private mode where Meta or other providers cannot access or grant third-party access to user data.Third Bridge experts on CPO:
> Despite the hype, mass commercial adoption is not expected before the second half of 2027. Traditional pluggable optical modules are expected to remain the industry standard throughout 2026.> CPO is likely to see early adoption in "scale-out" networking (connecting switches, GPUs, and CPUs) within distances under 500 meters. Deployment into GPUs themselves and "scale-up" chip-level systems is a harder engineering challenge, likely not seeing broad adoption until 2030–2032.> Experts note that training workloads (which require extreme bandwidth) are better suited for CPO, while inference workloads are deterministic and remain well-supported by traditional pluggable modules.> A primary hurdle for CPO is maintenance. With traditional pluggable modules, a failed component can be hot-swapped. With CPO, a failure in the optical subsystem might require replacing an entire board, leading to significantly higher costs and operational disruption.> Nvidia and Broadcom are expected to dominate the CPO market, potentially controlling 70% of it by 2028. Nvidia is expected to capture around 50% market share through its leadership in AI infrastructure, while Broadcom could secure roughly 20% through continued expansion of its deployment footprint. > Large cloud providers (like Google, Meta, AWS, Microsoft) are cautious about CPO because it risks "vendor lock-in." Pluggable modules allow these companies to mix and match components from various vendors, whereas CPO ecosystems are more restrictive.> Through substantial investments in optical component companies like Coherent and Lumentum, Nvidia is positioning itself to control the entire AI value chain—from GPUs and networking switches to the optical modules themselves.> Experts expect pluggable optical modules to remain the dominant solution for cloud giants such as Microsoft and Amazon throughout 2026. CPO adoption is expected to begin in earnest during 2027, reaching approximately 20% to 30% penetration by 2028.