Gary Black Tracker

Stocks edged higher pre-mkt after President Trump announced Project Freedom to guide neutral ships safely out of the Persian Gulf amid a fragile Iran ceasefire. Brent crude rose +1.4% to $110. Strong tech earnings, rising 2026 S&P EPS estimates ($325, +17% YoY), and a coming resolution to the Iran conflict support further record highs. $eBay(EBAY.US) surged 10% on $GameStop(GME.US) ‘s 56B buyout proposal. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to falling earnings estimates, increased competition in unsupervised autonomy and a stretched valuation relative to future expected growth.

My experience as a former CEO is that CapEx budgets start the year high with management’s best intentions to spend them, but then rarely get fully spent. As a former sell side analyst, I’ve observed that most companies don’t spend their full CapEx budgets. Among the big 4 hyper scalers ( $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US)) all except AMZN spent less in 1Q CapEx than WS expectations, and 1Q actuals were far lower than 1/4 of their current FY2026 CapEx budgets.

Stocks held steady pre-market at record highs, with Brent crude up +1% to $111 on the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and closed Strait of Hormuz. Trump vowed to sustain the naval blockade to pressure Iran back to the bargaining table. $Apple(AAPL.US) surged +3.2% after forecasting 14-17% Q3 revenue growth, beating expectations. We see S&P 500 extending gains post-conflict, with 2026 EPS at $325 (+17% YoY) implying a 22x P/E. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining earnings estimates, rising autonomy competition, and a stretched valuation.

$Apple(AAPL.US) +4% AH after forecasting much higher than expected 3Q revs and delivering solid 2Q results led by iPhone 17 and strong Greater China sales.

$Eli Lilly(LLY.US) (+11% today) continues to capitalize on consumers’ love affair with GLP-1 drugs, with Mounjaro (+126% YoY - diabetes) and Zepbound (+80% YoY - weight loss) both crushing 1Q estimates and helping LLY to beat overall 1Q estimates (Revs +56% YoY vs +49% est) and deliver robust FY’26 rev ($82-$85B vs $82B est) and EPS guides ($35.50-$37 vs $34 est). On deck is LLY’s once daily oral weight loss drug Foundayo which was approved by the FDA for sale on April 1, and at $149/month could be its biggest drug yet.

In today’s earnings extravaganza, $Meta Platforms(META.US) 1Q Rev beat and gave in line guidance but raised its 2026 CapEx forecast (-6% post-mkt); $Microsoft(MSFT.US) Revs beat but absent guidance until the call was -2% post market; $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) beat on a one-time securities gain and stronger than expected cloud growth (+4% post-mkt); and $Amazon(AMZN.US) beat on stronger than expected cloud growth but slipped -1% as CapEx came in higher than expectations.

Stocks edged higher pre-mkt with tech rebounding ahead of today’s key earnings reports from $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US), and $Meta Platforms(META.US). Oil surged to $115/bbl as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, with no peace resolution in sight. The Fed will hold rates steady at the end of today’s two-day meeting and provide commentary in what will be Fed Chair Powell’s final press conference.

$Visa(V.US) +5% AH after 2Q results beat and guidance in line or ahead of expectations

OpenAI recently failed to meet its own goals for new user acquisition and sales, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday. This is fueling internal concerns that the company is struggling to support spending on AI infrastructure.

For the record, I am far more aligned with $Tesla(TSLA.US) longs than shorts. Of all OEMs, TSLA has the greatest chance over the next 12-18 months to exploit the opportunity from unsupervised autonomy as FSD efficacy improves and TSLA continues to traverse the march of nines.

Stocks rose slightly Monday amid stalled US-Iran talks on ending the eight-week war, with Brent crude rising to $106/bbl. Iran’s foreign minister is signaling openness to an interim deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz for lifted sanctions. This peak earnings week features five of the Mag 7 names and 180 S&P 500 companies, with 84% of companies reporting so far posting positive surprises and +15% blended YoY earnings growth. The Fed meets Tues and Wed with no rate change expected. A Senate Banking Committee vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination as chair of the Federal Reserve is scheduled for Wednesday, which we expect to pass easily. We see equities extending highs post-conflict as 2026 S&P EPS ests rise to $325 (+17% YoY). We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to a stretched valuation and intense competition within unsupervised autonomy.

Highlights from today’s pre-mkt summary: Stocks were mixed in pre-market Friday, with Tech rallying on Intel's blockbuster 2Q revenue forecast. Meanwhile, little progress was made in bringing US/Iran back to the bargaining table. Oil rose to $107/bbl amid continuing US-Iran tensions. We believe equities will reclaim their highs once the Middle East conflict eases, with S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates at $325 (+17% YoY) implying a 21.9x P/E and a +30bp earnings yield spread vs 10yr TYs, in line with historic spreads. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining long-term earnings estimates, delayed autonomy timeline, rising autonomous competition, and TSLA’s stretched valuation.

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In my never ending effort to provide balance to the $Tesla(TSLA.US) community, I’m including long-time TSLA bear @BradMunchen ‘s commentary and relevant Q&A from yesterday’s call.

Contrary to what the media is saying, $Tesla(TSLA.US) stock is down -3% pre-mkt not because of its modestly increased 2026 CapEx forecast, but because TSLA is again backpedaling on timing of scale-up and monetization of unsupervised autonomy and Cybercabs until year-end and potentially 2027. The stock should not have gone up +4% immediately following earnings, as everyone quickly realized that the +$1.4B in positive 1Q free cash flow (vs -$1.8B expected) was due entirely to TSLA’s delay in implementing the $20B CapEx (now $25B) plan laid out in the 4Q earnings call.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) +4.0% AH after beating expectations across all metrics:

Highlights from today’s pre-mkt summary for Subscribers: Stocks rose as President Trump indefinitely extended the Iran ceasefire amid stalled peace talks, despite the closed Strait of Hormuz and ongoing naval blockade. Brent crude climbed back to $100/bbl amid the uncertainty of timing of new peace talks. 10-year treasury yields eased, and gold, silver and bitcoin rose. $Tesla(TSLA.US) gained ahead of 1Q earnings, and $United Airlines(UAL.US) rose despite weak 2Q and full-year guidance. We expect equities to reclaim record highs once the Iran conflict ends, oil falls, and Fed rate cuts resume, supported by rising 2026 S&P EPS estimates of $325 (+17% YoY). We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to deteriorating long-term earnings estimates, intense competition in unsupervised autonomy, and our view that TSLA’s extended valuation already reflects TSLA’s efforts to scale autonomous driving to new markets in 2H.

Highlights from today’s pre-mkt summary: Stocks rose modestly as investors awaited potential Iran peace talks in Pakistan that could extend a Middle East truce and restore oil flows. Brent crude fell, while the 10-year Treasury yield edged up ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing. Gold and silver slipped while Bitcoin inched higher. $Apple(AAPL.US) fell 0.7% after naming hardware head John Ternus as CEO successor to Tim Cook effective Sept 1. Trump signaled the two-week Iran ceasefire is unlikely to be extended, keeping the Strait of Hormuz blockaded for now. US-Iran peace negotiations are expected to start Tuesday, although Iran has not ruled out or confirmed their participation in talks. We expect equities to reclaim record highs once the conflict ends, oil retreats, and slower employment growth boosts Fed rate-cut odds. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have risen to $325 (+17% YoY) fueled by AI/data center investment and higher energy earnings, implying a 21.9x P/E and 4.6% earnings yield in line with historic spreads vs 10yr treasuries. Earnings season and next week’s Fed meeting loom, with no rate change expected. We remain cautious on TSLA due to declining long-term estimates, rising competition in autonomy, and potential SpaceX IPO funding pressure.

Highlights from today’s pre-mkt summary: Stocks fell in pre-market trading, threatening a 13-day NDX rally—the longest since 2013—as the US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, raising uncertainty over peace talks with a ceasefire expiring Wednesday. Brent crude surged while 10-year Treasury yields rose. Gold and silver fell, while Bitcoin rose modestly. TSLA slipped ahead of 1Q earnings on Wednesday. Despite conflicting signals from President Trump and Iranian officials, traders expect high pressure for a deal, with higher volatility likely. We expect equities to extend their record highs once the Middle East conflict resolves, oil prices retreat, and slowing employment growth boosts odds of faster Fed rate cuts. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have risen to $325 (+17% YoY) on AI infrastructure and energy gains, implying a 21.9x forward P/E with the 4.6% earnings yield +30bp vs 10yrTYs in line with historic precedent. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining long-term earnings estimates, rising competition in unsupervised autonomy, potential funding needs from the looming SpaceX IPO, and an extended 2026 P/E of 207x vs 2026-30 EPS growth of +37% (5.6x PEG).

There’s no question in my mind that unsupervised autonomy will become the dominant ride-hailing form within a few years. Ride hailing platforms with drivers will likely become extinct within 5 years. By extension, autonomous driving will become one of the most popular add-on options when buying or leasing new vehicles. Where I have always disagreed with bulls is about the level of competitive intensity in unsupervised autonomy. Unsupervised autonomy will become table stakes to survive; those that can’t master it will not stay in business. But to think $Tesla(TSLA.US) will be the only one to master and scale unsupervised autonomy when $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $Baidu(BIDU.US) $Pony AI(PONY.US) $WeRide(WRD.US) and $Amazon(AMZN.US) are already completing 1.0M paid unsupervised autonomous trips per week without safety monitors is borderline head-in-the-sand delusional.

$Netflix(NFLX.US) -10% today seems overdone given that NFLX maintained its FY’26 sales guidance (+12-14% YoY) and operating margin guidance (31.5%) despite weak 2Q rev and eps guidance. The key risk is that NFLX still needs content and may pursue an M&A opportunity elsewhere.

S&P500 (+0.9%) and NDX (+1.1%) surging pre-market after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz ‘completely open' during cease-fire, which is set to end Apr 22, but is likely to be extended. Brent crude -11% to $89/bbl. Today is likely to be 12th consecutive day of NDX gains, the longest winning streak since 2009.

Highlights from today’s pre-mkt summary: Stocks rose modestly in pre-market extending the Nasdaq’s 12-day winning streak—the longest since July 2009—as President Trump announced Iran had made key concessions in negotiations to end the seven-week war and a Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire boosted broader peace prospects. Brent crude fell, while gold, silver, and bitcoin edged higher. $Netflix(NFLX.US) dropped 10% on soft 2Q guidance. The S&P 500 is on track for a third straight week of +3%+ gains amid de-escalation hopes, AI optimism, and rising earnings. We expect equities to extend new records once the Middle East conflict ends, oil prices decline, and slower employment growth prompts faster Fed rate cuts. 2026 S&P 500 EPS estimates have climbed to $325 (+17% YoY), implying a 21.8x P/E and 4.6% earnings yield vs 4.3% 10yrTY, in line with its historic premium. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining long-term earnings estimates, rising competition in unsupervised autonomy, potential SpaceX IPO funding pressure, and a stretched valuation (200x+ 2026 P/E vs +35% long-term earnings growth).

$Netflix(NFLX.US) -9% AH after guiding to lighter than expected 2Q revs and EPS, and announcing that founder and Board Chair Reed Hastings would not stand for re-election. FY’26 Rev guidance was unchanged vs prior guidance despite 1Q results beating across all metrics.

The Mystery Behind TSLA’s Sudden Stock Rise. $Tesla(TSLA.US)