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$TSLA ‘s stretched valuation (2026 P/E of 205x vs 2026-2030 eps growth of +35%, PEG 6.0x) and declining forward earnings estimates (2027 EPS est -17% YTD) are why most institutional investors avoid the stock. Everyone recognizes the unique technological advantages TSLA FSD has, but most X influencers won’t talk about valuation or why analysts’ estimates keep falling. These two reasons (valuation and negative revisions) are why $TSLA continues to underperform NDX.

A $TSLA/SpaceX merger makes no sense mathematically for TSLA shareholders unless there are huge cost or revenue synergies for $TSLA.  The 35% dilution is just too great given the relative P/E differences.  This is the same reason the idea of a combined enterprise with all of Elon’s businesses didn’t fly last time. 

The math is pretty straightforward:   If TSLA contributes its $1.5T market cap at a 200x P/E and SpaceX contributes its $800B market cap equity at a 400x P/E, the combined company would have $2.3T market cap, To make the math work, TSLA would dilute its shareholders by issuing 35% new shares ($800B / $2.3B), and the combined company would show $8B adj net income (TSLA $6B, SpaceX $2B).  IMO many existing TSLA institutional shareholders would balk at the uncertainty of 25% profits coming from space travel/communications and sell their shares.   Every TSLA shareholder knows that TSLA is no longer just an EV company, but Energy, Autonomy, and Robots are at least profitable and can be modeled analytically.

The industrial logic of a TSLA/SpaceX merger escapes me.  I get that a deal makes Elon’s empire easier to manage since TSLA can fund SpaceX’s negative cash flows but that’s not TSLA shareholders’ concern.  While it’s true we no longer own TSLA shares so have no horse in this race, my past warnings to TSLA shareholders (TSLA would not sell 20M cars/year by 2030, other mnfrs would master unsupervised autonomy at the same time as TSLA) proved correct and so should afford some credibility that I know what I’m talking about.  

$TSLA has now underperformed Nasdaq for 5 years (TSLA  +48% vs NDX +90%) including over the past year (TSLA +12% vs NDX +20%).  We use 1- and 5-year measurement periods because those are the most common periods used by Bloomberg users, as you can see by the Bloomberg default periods at the bottom of the graphs below.

The avg price of a gallon of gas has risen from $2.98/gallon before the U.S.-Iran war to $3.86/gallon over the July 4th weekend after peaking at $4.56/gallon in June.  The rise in gas prices is likely what caused the surge in 2Q EV deliveries YoY ( $TSLA +25%, $RIVN +14%, $LCID +20%) rather than recent advances in FSD/autonomy, which are still virtually unknown by most potential EV customers.  

OPEC+ has a preliminary agreement for another modest oil quota increase in August, raising the prospect of more supply eventually hitting the market again if a US-Iran peace pact can stick. 

If ratified at a video conference on Sunday, seven major nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will add 188,000 barrels a day to their output target. The tiny on-paper hikes are starting to add up: it will mean they’ve added 940,000 barrels a day to quotas, equivalent to almost 1% of global demand, since the war began.

Oil futures have tumbled 43% from their war-time peak of $118/barrel at the end of April to $72 a barrel today, with many forecasters predicting the re-emergence of a global glut.  OPEC and its partners could soon face a choice between restraining output or fighting over market share via a potential price war. 

 I expect $TSLA stock to rebound this week as the sell-side climbs over one another to increase 2Q and FY’26 earnings ests, which could boost TSLA price targets. That said, at a 2026 P/E of 200x+ vs +35% long-term (2027-2032) EPS growth, which equates to a 6x PEG vs 2x for $NVDA, $GOOG, $META, $AVGO, etc., I continue to see $TSLA as fully-priced.

$NFLX -10% today seems overdone given that NFLX maintained its FY’26 sales guidance (+12-14% YoY) and operating margin guidance (31.5%) despite weak 2Q rev and eps guidance.  The key risk is that NFLX still needs content and may pursue an M&A opportunity elsewhere. 

NFLX still looks compelling at a 2026 P/E of 28.6x and 2026 EV/EBITDA of 24.2x vs 2026-30 forecasted Rev growth of +10%, EBITDA growth of +16%, and EPS growth of +17%.

$META +10% on a report from Bloomberg outlining plans to launch a cloud-infrastructure business to sell excess AI compute capacity. 

The new business would increase competition between Meta and other technology conglomerates that have been spending big on AI development, including Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud. 

Meta, like many of its competitors, is spending more and more on AI development.  In its 1Q earnings report in April, Meta increased its projected 2026 capital spending to a range of $125B to $145B, up $10 billion. It cited "expectations for higher component pricing" and "additional data center costs."

One potential plan includes selling access to various AI models that are hosted on Meta’s existing AI infrastructure, an approach similar to AWS’s Bedrock offering, the people said. Meta would run the data centers and chips that power the models, including its own Muse Spark models, and charge developers to access them.  META is also considering selling access to “raw” computing capacity, akin to other so-called neocloud businesses like CoreWeave Inc. Development of these new business lines is part of Meta Compute, an internal initiative to build and manage the company’s AI infrastructure efforts. 

Meta has made developing AI “superintelligence” a top priority, and has committed hundreds of billions of dollars to data centers and other AI infrastructure. That investment has left investors anxious about Meta’s plans to earn a return on that spending, which includes major computing deals with CoreWeave, Google and Oracle Corp., among others. A cloud business offers one way to return some of that investment. AWS, Azure and Google Cloud have spent decades building platforms that rent access to computing power, storage and software over the internet — businesses that now command tens of billions of dollars per quarter in revenue.

For the record, I am far more aligned with $TSLA longs than shorts.  Of all OEMs, TSLA has the greatest chance over the next 12-18 months to exploit the opportunity from unsupervised autonomy as FSD efficacy improves and TSLA continues to traverse the march of nines.  

That said, It’s hard to make the TSLA P/E math work if TSLA only offers unsupervised autonomous ride handling in a few states. I don’t see consumers en mass rushing out to buy a robotaxi vehicle with just two seats sans steering wheel and pedals anytime soon. I similarly believe TSLA bulls under-estimate competitors’ abilities to scale up unsupervised autonomous ride hailing with $GOOG $BIDU, $PONY, $WRD, and $AMZN already completing 1M paid robotaxi rides per week and $NVDA offering its autonomous hardware/software stack to every OEM. 

My issue is not lack of understanding or confidence in TSLA’s unsupervised autonomous capabilities.  My concern is that at 200x 2026 EPS, the market has already discounted TSLA’s success in achieving unsupervised autonomy and ride hailing without evidence TSLA has the marketing muscle to dominate either in what will surely be crowded spaces. Put simply, I like Tesla the company but not the valuation.   For bulls who keep posting $2,500, $3,000, and even higher valuations, kindly show us the math.

Good article from DowJones summarizing $TSLA, Waymo, $UBER efforts to scale unsupervised autonomy.

Tesla and Waymo duel in the robotaxi race - but the company spending the most builds no cars at all

By Jurica Dujmovic 
06/27/2026 14:20pm

$Uber is quietly writing $500 million checks to lock in robotaxis as Waymo threatens to leave it behind 
Tesla's autonomous robotaxis use the company's Model Y vehicles. The promised Cybercab is still in development. 

Tesla investors are paying a premium for a robotaxi fleet of just 20 cars 

If you own Tesla stock, much of what you are paying for above the value of a carmaker is a bet on autonomy and artificial intelligence that has barely reached the income statement: full self-driving software, the Optimus robot and a robotaxi network. 

The robotaxi is the nearest-term and most testable piece of that bet, and this spring it amounted to about 20 driverless Tesla Model Y vehicles in Austin, Dallas and Houston. Value the car business the way investors price any other automaker, and it accounts for only a fraction of the stock; the rest is the market's bid on that future, a premium no ordinary carmaker could carry. What is new is that the bet is finally testable against operating data rather than projections. 

This is not only a Tesla (TSLA) story. Autonomous driving has been separating investors from their money for years - from the self-driving Google cars promised to the public by 2017 to the roughly $10 billion that General Motors (GM) poured into Cruise before shutting it down. 

What is different this time is that the money has moved from research budgets to balance sheets, with contracts, milestones and deployment targets attached, across Tesla, Uber Technologies (UBER) and Alphabet (GOOGL) alike. Each company's progress, or lack of it, is now something investors can finally mark to market. 

Tesla's bet is real, but still small 
Tesla's robotaxi bet is a vertical one, with a single company owning the vehicle, the software and the network. The hardware is no longer theoretical: CEO Elon Musk said Cybercab production had begun at Giga Texas in April, though he warned that output would follow a "stretched out S-curve" - his term for a manufacturing ramp that stays slow far longer than usual before turning sharply higher, with little volume expected until late in the year. Musk has cautioned that material Cybercab revenue is unlikely before 2027. 

Tesla's shareholder update in late 2025 listed Phoenix, Las Vegas and three Florida cities - Miami, Orlando and Tampa - as part of its planned first-half 2026 Robotaxi coverage. But with that window nearing its end, those five markets have still not moved into service. In its 1Q update, Tesla no longer attached the first-half timing to those cities and instead described them as "Preparations Underway," while spring reporting pointed to a rollout that was slipping rather than accelerating. 

The spread between Waymo's half-million weekly rides and Tesla's roughly 20 active unsupervised robotaxi vehicles is, in effect, what the market is being asked to absorb every time it assigns Tesla a robotaxi premium. 

Uber in the fast lane 
If Tesla is the bet on owning everything, Uber is the bet on owning almost nothing and renting demand to whoever builds the cars. 

If Tesla is the bet on owning everything, Uber is the bet on owning almost nothing and renting demand to whoever builds the cars. That model is getting more expensive to defend. On June 3, Reuters reported that Uber has committed close to $500 million to self-driving software startup Nuro, far more than previously disclosed. The publicly known piece was Uber's participation in a $203 million funding round that valued Nuro at $6 billion. On top of that, Uber quietly made a second, larger investment and agreed to release further capital as Nuro cleared defined technical and commercial benchmarks. 
e listed names it is the most direct bet on robotaxi-sensor demand.

$TSLA $UBER $GOOGL

$NFLX -9% AH after guiding to lighter than expected 2Q revs and EPS, and announcing that founder and Board Chair Reed Hastings would not stand for re-election.  FY’26 Rev guidance was unchanged vs prior guidance despite 1Q results beating across all metrics.

1Q actuals:
- Revs $12.25B vs $12.17B est
- EPS $1.23 vs $0.76 (includes $2.6B WBD exit fee)
- Operating margin 32.3% vs 32.4% expected

2Q guide:
- Revs $12.57B vs $12.64B est
- EPS $.78 vs $.84 est

FY’26 guide:
- Revs +12-14% YoY to $50.7B-$51.7B (same as before)
- Operating margin 31.5% vs 32.0% est (same as before)
- Adv revenue $3B (no change)
- FCF $12.5B vs $11B prior due to WBC termination fee

U.S. stocks retreated pre-mkt (SPX -0.2%, NDX -0.8%) ahead of the June jobs report (+115K exp), with tech shares falling for a second day and South Korean chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix plunging 9% and 13% respectively on oversupply concerns. Brent crude fell to $70.84/bbl amid high Strait of Hormuz flows, as Trump noted progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have risen +23% YoY to $342 (2026 P/E 21.9x, 4.6% earnings yield vs 4.5% 10-year TYs) on AI and energy gains. TSLA 2Q deliveries are expected to beat consensus today (my est 420K vs WS est 406K) although my longer-term caution persists due to declining 2027-2030 earnings estimates, rising autonomous competition, and an extended valuation.

U.S. stocks rose pre-market Monday (SPX +0.4%, NDX +1.0%) as tech stocks rebounded ahead of this week’s Samsung and SK Hynix 2Q earnings, which will test the continuing viability of the AI trade. $TSLA recovered +1.3% pre-mkt after falling -7.5% Thursday and crushing Q2 deliveries (480K vs 406K est) amid surging 2Q gas prices as a result of the Iran conflict.  Brent crude fell 1% to $71/bbl as Hormuz flows recovered. S&P 2026 EPS estimates have risen to $342 (+23% YoY), implying a 21.9x P/E and a 4.6% earnings yield, in line with 10-year treasury yields.  I remain cautious on TSLA given likely commoditization of unsupervised autonomy in the coming year and a stretched valuation relative to forward earnings growth (6x PEG).

Here are the 10 most valuable companies in the world by market capitalization as of today 6/12/2026.  Market caps fluctuate daily with stock prices, so these are approximates:
1.  NVIDIA (NVDA) — ~$4.97 trillion (USA, Semiconductors/AI). Dominant leader in GPUs and AI hardware. 
2.  Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL) — ~$4.40 trillion (USA, Technology/Search & Advertising). Parent of Google, YouTube, etc.
3.  Apple (AAPL) — ~$4.28 trillion (USA, Consumer Electronics). iPhone, services, and ecosystem powerhouse.
4.  Microsoft (MSFT) — ~$2.89 trillion (USA, Software/Cloud). Azure, Office, and AI integration. 
5.  Amazon (AMZN) — ~$2.55 trillion (USA, E-commerce/Cloud). AWS cloud dominance and retail operations. 
6. SpaceX (SPCX) — ~ $2.25 trillion (USA, space travel, connectivity, AI. 
7. Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg (TSM) — ~$2.21 trillion (Taiwan, Semiconductors). World’s leading chip foundry (powers many top tech firms). 
8.  Broadcom (AVGO) — ~$1.82 trillion (USA, Semiconductors). Key player in networking, AI chips, and infrastructure. 
9.  Saudi Aramco (