AI/Semi Supply Chain Analyst
ex. RISC-V FDN, AI research scientist;

Serenity

If you’re curious:

$4649 for 107,894,491 (100M+) impressions!

All of this is going to dog rescues, will be doing large donations later!

It’s ~$600 / dog rescued, so it scales proportionally with Serenity fan count!

I also believe in making all my profits off $SIVE to $AAOI with stocks in the market, not off followers.

Especially if I’m a good enough investor.

So never felt the need to have high paywalls or do paid ads. (I’d do this anyway even if it weren’t monetized).

I’m glad I can help things I care about just by posting ideas throughout the day for fun. 

And I’ve seen a lot of followers recently donate to their local shelters in my name.

So genuinely thank you all for that, makes me happy.

$AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28.

Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute? 

There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers… 

Then this company is targeting the largest capacity in the US, with extreme vertical integration.

I think something to keep in mind is sovereign DCs / T2 AI DCs which increase the demand for 800g as hyperscalers  upgrade to 1.6T. 

So demand for 800g can actually keep increasing… 

Then there’s the analyst rumors of $AAOI conversations with $AMD / $NVDA. Which is kinda expected given everyone is getting their capacity allocated way into 2028. 

Nvidia always starts first and causes bottlenecks for everyone else as seen with EML, so not surprising if another hyperscaler learned their lesson this time?

Also, everyone seems to be modeling lower ASP at scale. But if this ends up a major bottleneck H1 next year as expected…

Could see unexpected price hikes + margin expansion across the board from $AAOI, $LITE, and others not really modeled in.

Okay... just some more weekend shower thoughts about $XFAB.

I still feel like it could be the next $TSEM, just early stage at a $1.4B MC?

They kinda leapfrogged current gens (which $TSEM are getting volume from) to compete for H2 2027 CPO scale up inflection point ($ASX docs cite Xfab (aka. photonixFAB) as focusing on CPO)

By building out some black magic MTP (transfer printing) architecture for lasers w/ other stuff like TFLN.

Basically next-gen integration IP, they're still behind on yields, sure.

But $NVDA evaluating it for transceivers/switches to see if it can volume ramp. That $NOK sets the specifications/assembly for. (nvidia invested in nokia for this these switches/networking too btw). 

And if their MTP supply chain works... (eg. with Smartphotonics providing lasers, EU players doing assembly).

It basically volume ramps with $NVDA just like why Nvidia signed long term agreements with $TSEM?

Downside risk?

Already below replacement book value, can always go lower yeah, but typically to a certain point. 

Maybe more CHIPS act subsidies next few months from chips act 2. If it doesn't go well there's SiC (152% Y/Y Growth, 195% Y/Y SiC wafer shipment growth)/GaN power semi upside.

Europeans /LLMs will say "oh evaluations doesn't mean it's a future contract!".

This is kinda different since the European Union is behind this effort and $XFAB for soverign photonic supply chains.

Not your typical company + hyperscaler evaluation, since $NVDA wants to be nice to Europe's regulators. They'd prob be pissed if nvidia just stayed in US/Taiwan/China.

So if they can make this MTP black magic work with mass production, feels almost for sure nvidia/nokia volume ramp on some tiny $1.4B silicon photonics foundry or at least throw them a bone with smaller contracts. 

In terms of timelines, maybe just a months early since it volume ramps H2 2027/H1 2028 (which happens to be in line with CPO scale up timelines)...

Or just unknown because they named their project something stupid like photonixfab?

Like XFAB Photonics would have been better? so institutions/screeners can connect the dots when looking at CPO silicon photonic foundry players?

Automotive should also coming out of a slump medium term, sped up by self-driving (TSM Chairmain comments yesterday said ai automotive was TSM's growth vector alongside robotics). So their core business also should pick up speed too medium term. 

Obviously markets/europeans want a "Nvidia signs $2B+ contract, XFab volume ramping 2027!" 

But by then it will be a $9B+ company and you miss out on all the upside. And especially since everyone analyst/institution is blind to volume expectations for these.... 

Normally don't invest in companies in evaluation stages, but this just seems very de-risked by EU sovereignty + Gov backing, and you have Nvidia + Nokia there for volumes if they can make the IP work. 

I think markets are probably missing something here...  there's almost 0 value being assigned to being CPO exposure in Europe as their long term upside.

Interesting photonics selloff today on no news?

$LITE down -4.95%
$AAOI down -4.85%
$SIVE down -14.8%
$SOI down -5.73%
$AXTI down -8.13%
$IQE down -12.13%

I think it’s probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis). 

Just tends to be very volatile on the way up. 

Surprised about $AAOI though given there’s some institutional notes apparently about long term $AMD or $NVDA agreements. (Rosenblatt). Maybe $600m ATM caps some near term upside.

$SIVE as well, given EU Chips Act 2 is next week around photonics, and they’re listed on the blueprint. Same with MSCI/NASDAQ omx inflow next week. 

I’ve been personally adding to positions since I have high conviction in the photonics theme (CPO especially) given TAM expansion overall next 2 years.Source: Serenity

Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher.

Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN from 2025 to 2030.

Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings.

“Aggregate capex est. $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031.”

And it flows upward to these tiny chokepoints like $SIVE for CPO lasers/ $SOI for Silicon Photonics substrates. Leaderdrive/Harmonic for Humanoids components. 

And so on…

Ai names don’t move in a straight line up, 
but is just the beginning of the next Industrial Revolution as we move from  R&D/compute buildout into commercialization from Agents -> Physical AI -> discovery.

I'm not sure why people look at 13F filings so deeply when all the hedge funds are super behind on names like $JBL, $LITE and others.

The most returns come from frontrunning institutions before they figure out the next $SNDK.

Not following them 3 months after they file.Source: Serenity

To be fair Trump did tell everyone to buy $DELL, multiple times this year.

He did go out and buy $1-$5M worth of Dell stock himself after all… 

But should have seen this coming with Dell blowout earnings. After what happened with $INTC.

If you feel like you’re late, there’s a lot of implications to Dell’s upstream suppliers that markets might not have priced in yet.

People wonder why I'm focusing on non-US markets recently.  

Why? CPO is my #1 thematic long. 

Markets don't know yet, the sudden paradigm shift in photonics...

I was one of the only to frontrun the current supercycle in 2025 w/ $AAOI @ ~$30, $LITE ~$300s, and $AXTI at ~$13 on X.... 

With the actual receipts and thesis that others can't show. 

CPO goes from ~$0. To $91 Billion TAM opportunity.

In the next 1 1/2 years from GS research. 

While overall optical market reaches $154B. 

Many players that had little exposure to the current photonics cycle at all: 

-> In Europe with high-end lasers design like $SIVE or $SOI with substrates. 
-> In Taiwan with Foci (3363), Nextronics (8147), Shunsin (6451) and others for optical components and foundries.  
-> In Japan with laser mass production, substrates, and chemicals. 

Are suddenly the new dominant players for CPO. 

As for US players, there's not much exposure. But the existing ones like $LITE, $COHR still get upside from CPO as that's their new growth vector. 

My contrarian thought process on current players:

Is that most of their valuation is priced in huge legacy pluggable revenue that will inevitably face cannibalization over time, so re-rating potential is less unless someone uses leverage. 

A lot of these new purer play CPO names go from 0 to 100 extremely quickly one mass production starts H2 2026 for scale out (as a revenue bridge) into H2 2027 for scale up (massive growth driver). 

Markets usually price things in 8-12 months ahead of time too... 

I have high conviction thematically in my supply chain research despite any market volatility leading up until then.Source: Serenity

$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. 

Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances.
 
Here’s the reason why:

1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings.

Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts.

-> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck 
-> Win Semi = bottleneck

$SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? 

Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well).

Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. 

Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck.

$SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers)

 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO.

$NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors)

$AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well.

However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence)

Are all likely designed around $SIVE. 

Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently)

If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers.

Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. 

$SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1):

If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO…

That makes them a chokepoint. 

Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference).

So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note)

This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. 

All of this should play out next year. 

And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.

Look who joined team $NBIS. 

5.6% is a pretty massive stake, maybe he realized by now it’s miles better than the dumpster fire that is $IREN.

That being said: Nebius is now up ~3x since I went long last year. 

Weebius has plot armor. Source: Serenity

Oh look, a new UDN article about $TSM COUPE + AI optical markets. 

Institutional investors are optimistic that Taiwanese companies: 

FOCI (3363), and MSScorps (6830) are expected to benefit

But... that "Institutional" should be changed to retail investors on X?

For FOCI: "Its FAU products have been developed in cooperation with TSMC for at least three years, and the specifications have been promoted to 1.6T,  3.2T, and the subsequent mass production schedule has become the focus  of market observation."

For MSS: "cut into the silicon photonics and CPO detection analysis, the main  "light loss detection" technology ... and launch of the silicon photonics test  platform, lock in research and development, engineering verification,  failure analysis and a small number of diverse test applications."

These are still two extremely small companies... and things like MSS weren't even mentioned by GS, despite the news claims about relations. 

So feels like X found this early, mainstream institutions are likely about to enter after seeing this sort of confirmation.Source: Serenity

Is it just me…

Or does it feel like everyone on X or $RDDT made millions off of $INTC, $MU, and $AMD recently? Source: Serenity

Everyone is out there making life changing returns on $RDDT.

Fully leveraged on the wrong $SPCE (Virgin Galactic) ticker.

Instead of $SPCX, which is yet to launch. 

I guess this just goes to show how much retail demand there is for SpaceX’s IPO. 

Had some more time go through $SIVE earnings transcript, it’s very bullish:

- $JBL pluggable partnership led to more optical transceiver requests for $SIVE  

So maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other large players are my guess. 

- More laser capacity on top of Win Semi with more partners being developed. “When the timing is right, we will bring those details to the market.”

CEO said it’s not just Win/Glasgow. I’m already confident in Win Semi scaling capacity, given they’re critical in SpaceX / $AVGO supply chains already. 

But this derisks those capacity ramp even more. Just not publicly disclosed yet.

-  tremendous executive credibility and experience with U.S. markets, as well as strong M&A experience

Flagged M&A in regards to new board members, which we guessed based on their backgrounds.

- “Production orders are imminent from our lead SATCOM”… 

So that’s volume ramp for space 

- U.S dual listing progressing smoothly

No exact timeline, my personal guess was around late Q3 or Q4. Probably after June board meeting, they’ll announce timing since that’s when new board members come in.

- “Viewing the ecosystem vendors as competitors is the wrong way to go about it in supercycles where demand far outstrips supply.”

Too much demand in photonics

- “Over the last five months, there's been a rapid increase in the Photonics pipeline as well”

Basically 77% growth pipeline came from photonics (which validated thesis about cpo/pluggable growth vectors for sivers)

TLDR:

We moved from “can sivers get customers this small and can they compete with $LITE?”

To execution eg. “how much can sivers even produce to feed into each supercycle” as they’re volume ramping while demand > supply.”

To me that’s very positive if anything they make gets bought. 

Also there’s likely to be a lot of TAM expansion in the photonics space post-M&A as well as more ongoing hyperscaler supplier qualifications hinted. 

Again, revenue pipeline surged 77% in just their quarter (5m) largely from photonics… over the entire company’s history. 

As CPO scales up h2 2027 onwards, I’m expecting the revenue numbers to look like an exponential curve.

Uh, was there any news with $POET …

Or does the universe just not like short sellers? Source: Serenity

I’m fully convinced the Stock Market secretly revolves around building the Death Star and Battle Droids:

$RKLB / $SPCX / $PL = Death Star

$LASR / $SIVE = Laser Beams

$TSLA / Unitree = Battle Droids Source: Serenity