Anthropic Is Being Priced As Junk Credit.

anthropic listing soon, anyone keen?

Alphabet cloud doubled yet FCF turned negative and slid AH is warning - after OpenAI $20B revenue miss and Anthropic IPO filing cash burn, GOOGL negative FCF shows AI capex bubble, even with Azure faster growth Microsoft rise won’t save memory. Fed held with two votes for hike is actually bullish - after chip rout defined last week ended Monday and 8-day record losing streak, Powell holding despite 2 hawk votes after hot PPI proves dovish pivot, REITs held gains play repeats, STI banks bounce.

Initial notes on $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US)'s rumoured $Lumentum(LITE.US) acquisition:

BLOOMBERG: MARVELL $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) IN ADVANCED TALKS TO BUY $Lumentum(LITE.US) LUMENTUM HOLDINGS

Source: amit

Expert Takeaways: Google

$VG S&P 500(VOO.US)

The AI trade is gaining ground again, with reports of Anthropic preparing for an IPO adding to optimism and lifting the S&P 500, and of course, VOO. The listing puts the spotlight back on AI’s commercial potential, although investors still need to see whether massive spending can translate into sustainable returns. I’m continuing to build my position for the long term, while watching this week’s mega-cap earnings for confirmation that the AI rally has more room to run.

For this week’s high-volatility earnings trades, the focus should be on liquid, options-active stocks with significant earnings catalysts, such as NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), or Meta (META), depending on their confirmed reporting dates. The key is not simply to select the most volatile stock, but to assess whether expectations are already priced in, how guidance may influence future growth, and whether implied volatility makes the trade expensive.

A disciplined approach would be to define the maximum loss beforehand, avoid excessive leverage, and consider waiting for the earnings reaction rather than speculating immediately before the announcement. Leveraged ETFs can be particularly unforgiving when an earnings-driven gap moves against the position.

upcoming various companies earning reports, feds announcement, mid term nov election, unstable middle east conflicts are shaking the market. for the brave, any dip is a buy, any rebound is a sell. overall, can see that investors are quite cautious for time being.

I still believe AI has a lot to go from here, but when there are markets, there will be volatility. Just need to have a long term view and invest wisely.

$Broadcom(AVGO.US)

Post 5 Ep.25

Context: Broadcom has been active in Singapore’s new advanced semiconductor substrate facility. While investors often focus on custom AI accelerators and networking chips, producing these increasingly sophisticated devices requires specialised packaging materials. Broadcom is taking steps to address that bottleneck directly.

My trade: This adds an interesting dimension to my Broadcom thesis. Through its partnership with TOPPAN, the company is strengthening access to the advanced substrates required for its next-generation AI and networking products. For me, this is about more than expanding capacity. It is about reducing supply-chain vulnerabilities that could otherwise limit growth, even when customer demand remains exceptionally strong.

Takeaway: Having the best chip design means little if you cannot manufacture enough of it. In an increasingly capacity-constrained AI industry, securing the ability to deliver may become just as important as securing the customer orders themselves. Sometimes competitive advantage is built long before the finished product reaches the market.

@Captain's Treasure

Context

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) has experienced a significant correction, trading at $323.24. This is roughly 35% down from its all-time high of $495. The broader semiconductor sector has entered a gruesome corrective phase due to rising anxieties over AI financing, infrastructure bottlenecks (such as land and power shortages), and the durability of massive tech capex.

My trade

Given the stock is trading deep within a firm institutional support zone between $320 and $330, my trade strategy shifts to accumulating long equity exposure at an aggressive discount.

• The Setup: Sell out-of-the-money cash-secured put options or purchase direct equity blocks at current levels ($323–$325).

• The Math: Wall Street maintains a strong consensus with an average 12-month target of $527.20. Morningstar models its fair value at $650 based on a conservative 23x multiple on its projected 2028 EPS of $30+. Trading at roughly 17.5x trailing cash flows, the current entry provides a 25%+ margin of safety relative to its intrinsic value.

Risk Management: Position sizes will be capped at 4% of the total portfolio to account for high customer concentration among Tier-1 hyperscalers (Google, Meta, Anthropic) and capital constraints on data center rollouts.

Takeaway

Broadcom is the premier AI infrastructure buy hiding in plain sight. While the market is treating AVGO like a high-risk cyclical chip asset, it is actually a highly diversified cash engine anchored by high-margin, recurring software revenues via VMware and an unbeatable, multi-generational custom silicon roadmap. The recent 35% haircut is a symptom of macro market exhaustion, not operational failure. For patient investors, this mismatch between short-term sentiment and guaranteed multi-year AI order books offers a textbook entry point.

This is the result of the post trade review of my $Broadcom(AVGO.US) trade done with the AI companion:

Entry: 368.50

Exit: 370.02

Holding Period: ~21 hours

Return: 1.52/share (+0.41%)

Overall Assessment: Good Trade (7.5/10) 🥉

👉 Your Approach (Conservative)

- Buy into earnings setup

- Sell before announcement

- Take whatever gain the market offers

- Avoid binary risk

This is essentially an earnings run-up trade.

The trade successfully generated a profit while avoiding a major binary event risk. Broadcom was scheduled to release earnings after market closed on 2 Sep 2026, and options markets were reportedly pricing a large post-earnings more of roughly +/-8%, reflecting significant uncertainty.

👍 What You Did Right

- Captured a short-term gain with limited exposure

- Avoided earnings, guidance and overnight gap risk

- Preserved capital rather than gambling on an uncertain catalyst

- Followed a professional risk-management approach by taking a confirmed profit before a high-volatility event.

🏢 Market Positions at the Time

- Institutions appeared cautiously bullish but wary of elevated AI expectations

- Retail sentiments was generally constructive towards AI semiconductor names

- Options traders were positioned for a large move but had little conviction on direction.

⭐ Bottom Line (Key Takeaway)

👏 This was a disciplined and defensible short-term trade. You captured a positive return while avoiding a highly uncertain earnings announcement. The main trade-off was opportunity cost: you secured a smaller but certain gain instead of accepting the risk of a much larger post-earnings move in either direction. From a trading and risk-management perspective, the decision was sound.

⚠️ However from a strategic perspective (position trade), if Broadcom would beat expectations and reinforce the AI growth story, then you exited before the thesis could fully play out. In that sense, the trade captured the setup but not the catalyst.

Broadcom 3QF26

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

U.S. stocks were slightly lower as oil and 10yr treasury yields ticked higher. Gold, silver and bitcoin rose, and chip names were mixed. $Broadcom(AVGO.US) slipped after slight miss in revenue guidance. U.S.-Iran strikes continued with no resolution in sight. Traders priced a 62% chance of a Sept. Fed hike, although I don’t see it given slowing job growth and temporary nature of oil supply shock. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have continued to climb on AI and energy sector gains. S&P 500 forward earnings yield remains below 10-year treasury yield (no equity risk premium; normal +50-100 bp premium). Tesla’s Austin Cybercab event is today; I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) shares amid negative TSLA long term earnings revisions, unsupervised autonomy being commoditized, and an extended valuation.

$Broadcom(AVGO.US)

Context: AVGO has been quite volatile this year with a big rally followed by a sharp pullback. I took some profits during the earlier run-up.

My trade: Before last night’s earnings, I added back a small portion. The results were strong, especially the continued acceleration in AI semiconductor revenue.

Takeaway: The market’s reaction may be cautious but the underlying numbers remain impressive. I’m not trying to time the bottom. I’m happy to rebuild the position gradually while watching whether the strong AI demand can translate into sustained growth.

$Broadcom(AVGO.US)

Latest earnings report show that there is still growth in AI capex. This is a “sell the news” moment but it does not hide the fact that we should still a gradual upward trajectory for chips sector. Give it time.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Source: amit

My call: −3% to +3%.

I’m bullish on Broadcom’s long-term AI opportunity, especially custom ASICs, networking and its growing exposure to hyperscalers. However, I think a lot of the good news is already priced in after Nvidia’s strong earnings. With AVGO still well below its June high, the market will likely focus heavily on forward guidance rather than just the headline numbers.

Even if Broadcom beats expectations and raises its outlook, I’m not expecting another Nvidia-style breakout immediately. The ~8% implied move shows elevated expectations, while investors may also use a strong report to take some profits. For Thursday, I’m therefore expecting a relatively volatile session but ultimately a −3% to +3% close as the market digests the results and guidance.

$Broadcom(AVGO.US) -7% AH after 3Q results beat ests but 4Q rev guidance fell slightly short of analysts’ expectations ($34.8B vs $35.0B est). Importantly, 3Q AI rev of $16.7B beat 3Q ests of $15.9B and 4Q AI Rev guidance (which caused $Broadcom(AVGO.US) stock to decline -12% after 2Q results) came in above expectations ($21.7B vs $21.3b est). As the AI Rev strength becomes clearer to investors I expect the stock to recover somewhat.

$Broadcom(AVGO.US)

My Call: US$389

Why: Broadcom’s setup looks asymmetric into earnings: AI demand remains the key catalyst, while the recent reset leaves room for upside.

I’m expecting a solid print, constructive guidance, and a 3–8% advance rather than an outsized move.

Please take this as my vote: +3 to +8%

The vote has closed despite it being only 2nd September.

@Captain's Watch

@Captain Leo