Tesla Cut Its Capex. Smart Or Scared?

Tesla reduce AI investment

My favorite quote from last nights $Tesla(TSLA.US) call underscores why shares are going higher.

Source: Gene Munster

$Tesla(TSLA.US)Despite Tesla’s declining profits, I think the market may actually reward its decision to cut capital expenditures and preserve cash flow. In the current environment, capital discipline could matter more than headline earnings, especially as investors become increasingly selective about growth spending.

I see this as a reasonable time to keep accumulating through DCA. The key question is whether Tesla can maintain its long-term growth ambitions while becoming more disciplined with its spending.

For now, I’m watching cash flow and capital allocation just as closely as earnings. The market may be willing to look past weaker profits if the company can demonstrate better financial discipline.

@Captain's Treasure

Do You Think $Tesla(TSLA.US)Decision to Slash Its 2026 Capex is a Good Idea?

🌟🌟🌟Whether $Tesla(TSLA.US)decision to slash its 2026 Capex forecast by 20% from USD 25 billion to USD 20 billion is a good idea, depends entirely on what kind of company you believe Tesla is.

The Bull Case:

By spending USD 4.7 billion on Capex in Q3 instead of USD 7.5 billion expected, Tesla has delivered a big surprise. It generated USD 1.53 billion in free cash flow which would give Tesla massive firepower and flexibility before it merges with $SpaceX(SPCX.US) if the merger goes through.

The Bear Case:

Tesla's premium valuation rests almost entirely on the promise that it is an AI and robotics powerhouse, not just a car manufacturer.

By pulling back on spending suggests less of an all -in approach to the AI arms race just as rivals are accelerating.

Lower Capex also strongly hints that mass producing Optimus humanoid robots schedule has been delayed to late 2027.

Dear Fellow investors, do you think the trimming of the Capex by Tesla is a Bull or Bear Case?

Tesla, the giant EV car maker in the world cut spending on its AI, but Meta, a giant social media player in the world makes the opposite side to increase spending on its AI. don't know which one to follow

Tesla’s Q3 results may hinge less on deliveries and revenue, which are largely known, than on gross margin and management’s outlook. Deliveries of 486,500 and energy storage deployments of 13.7 GWh provide a strong starting point, but profitability will determine whether demand translates into sustainable earnings. Investors will also assess automotive pricing, cost control and future growth expectations. The reported SpaceX profit and confirmation that a potential Tesla–SpaceX merger is under consideration add another layer of uncertainty.

Wall Street expected $Tesla(TSLA.US) to BURN $4.92 billion of cash in Q3

Source: StockMarket.News

Tesla’s gross margin rebound to 19.6% offers temporary relief, but doubling capex and a 43% net profit drop highlight heavy AI compute burn. Meanwhile, SpaceX merger talks shift the narrative—framing Tesla less as an automaker and more as a capital vehicle for superintelligence infrastructure.

Elon suggests EV winter is ending.

Source: Gene Munster

$SpaceX(SPCX.US): "I do not think we should necessarily assume that I think some people out there assume that a SpaceX and Tesla merger is a certainty. I think that would be overstating it."

Buckle Up: Elon Musk's Tesla Faces an Earnings Reality Check This Week

🌟🌟🌟Hold onto your steering wheels, because $Tesla(TSLA.US)is reporting its Q3 26 earnings after the bell this week.

The Forecast:

Wall Street consensus is braced for a slightly down quarter. Analysts expect EPS of USD 0.44 to USD 0.45 on around USD 27.8 billion to USD 27.9 billion in revenue. That represents a 10% to 12% dip in earnings YoY.

The Silver Lining:

Tesla managed to deliver 486,532 vehicles in Q3, beating muted analyst expectations even though it is slightly down from last year.

The Fear:

Wall Street is worried about Tesla's massive capital expenditure. It is projected to spend a huge USD 25 billion in 2026 on AI infrastructure and factory buildouts. This means free cash flow is feeling a big squeeze.

The Analyst Target Prices:

Wall Street is wildly divided on what Tesla is actually worth. Is Tesla a car company or a robotics and AI powerhouse?

The Consensus Average Target Price is USD 404.87, representing a modest 12% upside potential.

My Take:

If Elon Musk gives a masterclass on Superintelligence, Cybercabs and Robotics Economies, Tesla's share price may rocket to the moon. I was thrilled watching the Flying Tesla Roadster last week, doing mid air gymnastics and flying over a row of semi trucks. One thing for sure, there is never a dull moment with Elon Musk and $Tesla(TSLA.US).

Dear Fellow Investors, what do you think about the shiny new Tesla Roadster?

Roadster hype versus the Thursday print

The Roadster reveal is classic Tesla, pull attention to 2028 while the market is nervous about the here and now. Refundable deposits are marketing, not revenue. What matters Thursday is gross margin excluding credits, the energy storage trajectory, and any concrete robotaxi timeline beyond slides. The stock is caught in the broader AI and chip selloff, so even a decent print may not get rewarded, while a miss gets punished twice. I am keeping my position small into the number and will add only if margins stabilise. Show me the model, not the rocket.

Ten thrusters and a 50k deposit for a 2028 car, and Tesla still dropped 2.1 percent on the day. The Roadster is a great show reel but it is not what Thursday is about. I care about auto margins and whether energy and robotaxi are actually scaling. If the numbers are soft, the flying car headline ages badly.

"Super Wednesday / Thursday" is here

Attention everyone, this week's market is packed with events, the pace is tight, and short-term volatility should not be underestimated 🤯

1️⃣ Fed Rate Decision & Powell's Speech

Time: January 28 (Wednesday) 2:00 PM EST

The Fed will announce the latest rate decision, followed by Powell's press conference at around 2:30 PM EST.

The market is most concerned not just about whether rates will be adjusted, but more about the wording and tone—hints about future economic and rate-cut paths.

Latest market expectations: High probability of keeping rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.

2️⃣ Tech Giants Earnings Reports

Time: After 4:00 PM EST on January 28 (Wednesday)

$Microsoft(MSFT.US), $Meta Platforms(META.US), and $Tesla(TSLA.US) will release their quarterly earnings reports.

The performance of these large-cap tech stocks often directly impacts market sentiment, especially when released after hours on the same day as the rate decision, which can amplify market volatility.

3️⃣ Crypto Regulation & CLARITY Act

The originally scheduled crypto regulation meeting (SEC Chair + CFTC Chair) and CLARITY Act markup, postponed due to scheduling and internal coordination, will now take place on January 29 (Thursday) afternoon EST.

These two events are highly sensitive to short-term crypto market sentiment. Although delayed, the momentum hasn't stopped.

⚡️ Summary

Here's the market schedule:

Date Time (EST) Event

1/28 (Wed) 2:00 PM Fed Rate Decision

1/28 (Wed) 2:30 PM Powell's Press Conference

1/28 (Wed) After 4:00 PM Tech Giants Earnings

1/29 (Thu) Afternoon Crypto Regulation Meeting + CLARITY Act Review

The original "Super Tuesday" has now turned into a Super Wednesday/Thursday window—rates, earnings, regulation, and legislation all packed into two days. Short-term market volatility could be significant 📉📈

Want to stabilize your positions this week? Focus on three key themes: the rate decision, tech giants' after-hours earnings, and the crypto regulation meeting. Capital is being reallocated between policy, earnings, and regulation—expect volatility, but there are also opportunities 😉

$Tesla(TSLA.US)CNBC say Tesla resale value CMI liao 📉 If Geylang supper traders boycott TSLA, how? Buy NIO or AMD instead? 😂🚘

$Tesla(TSLA.US)Here we go! My coffee shop uncle says BYD has spies in Tesla's Shanghai factory 👀🚨 Cheaper Model Y = margin 🔪🩸or genius move? If Elon quits Trump's camp, will the stock skyrocket?

$Tesla(TSLA.US) $Tesla(TSLA.US) chart sibeh choppy leh 📉. 24h up 0.17%, but 3-day down 0.74%? Like roller coaster sia. RSI hovering near 50, MACD flat like prata 🥘. Support at $150 looks shaky, if break confirm rekt liao. Anyone still holding long or waiting for dip to buy? Huat ah or GG? 🚀🔥

$Tesla(TSLA.US)Last December, when Tesla’s stock price was at its peak, Elon Musk’s net worth was close to $500 billion, and now it’s $250 billion!

Things will reverse when they reach their extreme—get ready to buy the dip!

$Tesla(TSLA.US)How can Wall Street let you hand over the chips without releasing overwhelming profit and loss news?

When Tesla gets better, it will be all good news.

If Musk, the person who changed human history, had the same idea as us, how could he change history?