Tesla, SpaceX Weigh A Merger. Terms Being Set.

$Tesla(TSLA.US)Beyond its car and robotics businesses, Tesla has another part of the story that doesn’t get nearly enough attention: energy storage. I think it‘s an important piece of the business that the market may still be overlooking.

After the midterm elections, Tesla sold off sharply as investors worried about potential political backlash and payback. But despite the drop, the market’s ability to absorb the selling has been surprisingly strong.

That kind of buying support is worth paying attention to. The headlines may be weighing on the stock for now, but there‘s clearly still demand underneath the surface.

@Captain's Treasure

$Tesla(TSLA.US)

Tesla’s future depends on more than vehicle deliveries. Improving automotive margins, scaling energy storage and converting AI ambitions into profitable businesses will be important factors in supporting its long-term valuation.

$TSLA 2X Long ETF(TSLL.US)

Context:

Tesla is entering an interesting new chapter. With FSD expanding into Finland and Cybercab getting closer to reality, I'm starting to see Tesla as more than just an EV company. Its autonomy ambitions could become a much bigger part of the story.

TSLA's recent pre-market strength is encouraging, and I'm staying optimistic about the direction.

My Trade:

I'm currently holding TSLL to get 2x daily exposure to Tesla. I like the upside potential, but I also know this isn't a position I can simply buy and forget.

I'm keeping a close eye on FSD progress, Cybercab execution and price momentum. If Tesla delivers, there's plenty to be excited about. Still, I'm not looking to let market excitement dictate my position size.

Takeaway:

I'm bullish on Tesla, but that doesn't mean I have to be reckless with TSLL.

The goal isn't just to catch the upside. It's to manage the downside well enough to stay in the game.

$Tesla(TSLA.US)

Context:

Tesla is making a big bet on its next chapter. Robotaxi service is expanding to San Antonio, while the company plans to shift more production capacity from Cybertruck to Cybercab.

To me, this is a major strategic move. But a bigger vision doesn’t automatically mean bigger profits. Execution is what matters.

My Trade:

I’m not chasing the latest price move. I want to see whether Tesla can turn its AI and Robotaxi ambitions into a scalable, profitable business. Competition, safety, and operating costs are still important risks.

Takeaway:

Tesla is no longer just an EV story. The real question is whether its future technology can deliver real business results.

Political and regulatory headwinds may delay hyperscale data center builds, creating a short-term valuation reset for high-multiple chipmakers. However, underlying AI compute demand remains structural. Dip-buyers can utilize the pullbacks as strategic entries, while domestic bank earnings offer cash-generative ballast.

The sharp decline across major US indices reflects growing concern that political resistance could constrain AI infrastructure expansion. Texas’s proposed pause is significant given the state’s role in attracting data-centre investment. The sell-off suggests investors are reassessing whether projected AI capital expenditure can proceed at its expected pace, raising risks for data-centre operators, utilities, semiconductor suppliers and related technology companies. However, political opposition does not necessarily mean AI investment will stop; projects may face delays, higher costs or relocation rather than cancellation. The key issue is whether these developments translate into reduced orders and weaker earnings guidance across the AI supply chain.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) -4.8% to $379, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) -5.7% pre-mkt to $133

Cybercab testing looks to be underway in Minneapolis. Photo taken this morning. @robotaxi

Source: Gene Munster

$Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls excited by a $SpaceX(SPCX.US) - $Tesla(TSLA.US) merger should look at what happened to Lumentum Holdings stock ($Lumentum(LITE.US)) this morning after $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) offered a 24% premium to $Lumentum(LITE.US)’s 10/28/2026 closing price of $914, or $1,132 per $Lumentum(LITE.US) share. The stock is is currently down -15% to $750/share as $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) stock to be received (4.5 MRVL shares per LITE share) has dropped by -26% since last Wednesday when rumors about the deal came public. When an an acquirer uses its own stock to pay for an acquisition, traders and merger arbs invariably sell down the acquirer’s stock particularly if there is a long time frame between deal announcement and deal close (as in MRVL-LITE, likely first half of 2028). A SPCX-TSLA deal given its size and complexity could take just as long.

$TSLA 2X Long ETF(TSLL.US)

Context:

Tesla’s sharp move caught my attention. TSLA jumped 5.2% in the latest session, while TSLL gained around 10%. Part of the excitement came from a Barclays upgrade and speculation around a possible Tesla–SpaceX merger.

I can see why the market got excited, but I’m careful with stories like this. A potential deal can create a lot of momentum before anything is confirmed, and I don’t want to confuse a strong rally with proof that the long-term thesis has improved.

My Trade:

I am holding TSLL for leveraged exposure to Tesla, knowing its swings can be much bigger than TSLA’s. While rallies feel great, sentiment can reverse just as quickly.

I want to stay focused on my thesis rather than let one headline drive my confidence.

Takeaway:

With TSLL, being right about Tesla’s long term potential isn’t enough. The stock’s price path matters because daily leverage can amplify both gains and losses.

I am learning to separate excitement from evidence.

$Intel(INTC.US)

Intel reports October 29, with analysts expecting approximately $16.5 billion revenue and $0.40 adjusted EPS, reflecting strong year-over-year growth. Investors will focus on AI server demand, PC sales, 18A manufacturing progress, and margins. Strong guidance could boost shares, but execution risks and valuation remain concerns.

$Tesla(TSLA.US)$Meta Platforms(META.US)

$Tesla(TSLA.US)

Context:

I no longer see TSLA as just an EV company. The bigger question is whether Robotaxi, AI and robotics can become profitable businesses that generate meaningful cash flow.

Tesla’s latest earnings were mixed. While earnings beat expectations, its lower 2026 capex outlook raised questions about execution. Investors want results, not just promises.

My Trade:

I see Tesla’s long-term potential, but I’m separating that from its near-term stock performance. Autonomy and robotics could unlock new growth, but they require time, capital and execution.

What matters is whether Tesla can deliver on its milestones and build sustainable economics.

Takeaway:

Believing in Tesla’s future doesn’t mean ignoring delays. I am open to the long-term opportunity, but management still needs to prove the thesis through results.

$Tesla(TSLA.US)

Context: Tesla still proves that it can benefit from the current high price of gasoline fuel by selling more EV cars and it is also spending less resulting in a free cash surplus of US$1.53 billion. This is surprising as the analyst has expected a massive cash deficit of US$4.92 billion. The market is always in a dilemma, on 1 side, it wants to preserve as much free cash as possible on the other side, having too much free cash can mean having less to invest into AI or other high impact investments. So it needs a good balancing act.

My trade: add more Tesla stocks

Takeaway: Tesla is a US1.4 trillion company and is the most valuable automobile company globally. It has also invested heavily in self-driving software, battery technology, robotics technology and robotaxis. All these have a high potential to outgrow EV car sales.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

Tesla reduce AI investment

My favorite quote from last nights $Tesla(TSLA.US) call underscores why shares are going higher.

Source: Gene Munster

$Tesla(TSLA.US)Despite Tesla’s declining profits, I think the market may actually reward its decision to cut capital expenditures and preserve cash flow. In the current environment, capital discipline could matter more than headline earnings, especially as investors become increasingly selective about growth spending.

I see this as a reasonable time to keep accumulating through DCA. The key question is whether Tesla can maintain its long-term growth ambitions while becoming more disciplined with its spending.

For now, I’m watching cash flow and capital allocation just as closely as earnings. The market may be willing to look past weaker profits if the company can demonstrate better financial discipline.

@Captain's Treasure

Do You Think $Tesla(TSLA.US)Decision to Slash Its 2026 Capex is a Good Idea?

🌟🌟🌟Whether $Tesla(TSLA.US)decision to slash its 2026 Capex forecast by 20% from USD 25 billion to USD 20 billion is a good idea, depends entirely on what kind of company you believe Tesla is.

The Bull Case:

By spending USD 4.7 billion on Capex in Q3 instead of USD 7.5 billion expected, Tesla has delivered a big surprise. It generated USD 1.53 billion in free cash flow which would give Tesla massive firepower and flexibility before it merges with $SpaceX(SPCX.US) if the merger goes through.

The Bear Case:

Tesla's premium valuation rests almost entirely on the promise that it is an AI and robotics powerhouse, not just a car manufacturer.

By pulling back on spending suggests less of an all -in approach to the AI arms race just as rivals are accelerating.

Lower Capex also strongly hints that mass producing Optimus humanoid robots schedule has been delayed to late 2027.

Dear Fellow investors, do you think the trimming of the Capex by Tesla is a Bull or Bear Case?

The market rewarded $Meta Platforms(META.US) for spending more and punished $Tesla(TSLA.US) for spending less, and I think that comes down to proof. Meta's revenue grew 26% to a record 64.6 billion USD and its shares rose after hours even as it lifted its capex forecast to as much as 145 billion USD, so investors can see the ad business paying for the AI push. Tesla beat on earnings but its shares reversed after it cut its 2026 capex forecast to about 20 billion USD from over 25 billion, and they were down almost 5% before the open on Thursday. A spending cut at a company priced on robots and autonomy raises doubts about those ambitions, especially with the stock trading at roughly 195 times a simple earnings run rate. My takeaway is that heavy spending is forgiven when revenue backs it up, while a valuation built on future promises has little room for any sign of retreat.

Tesla, the giant EV car maker in the world cut spending on its AI, but Meta, a giant social media player in the world makes the opposite side to increase spending on its AI. don't know which one to follow

I think Tesla and Meta’s earnings show that there is no single right approach to AI spending. $Tesla(TSLA.US) cutting its capital expenditure target to around $20 billion while delivering positive free cash flow is encouraging, especially as profits declined about 43%. To me, this suggests Elon Musk is trying to balance long-term investments with financial discipline while Tesla continues developing FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus and AI infrastructure. However, I still want to see these projects translate into sustainable revenue and profits rather than relying only on future promises.

$Meta Platforms(META.US), on the other hand, is raising its capital expenditure floor to $135 billion, supported by 26% revenue growth. I understand why Mark Zuckerberg is willing to spend aggressively, as AI could strengthen advertising performance and create new growth opportunities, but the key question is whether the returns can justify such massive investments. Personally, I remain bullish on the long-term AI trend, but I prefer to judge companies by cash flow, execution and returns on invested capital. I will continue holding my Tesla position with a long-term perspective, while staying disciplined and avoiding the temptation to chase excitement around AI spending.

Tesla’s Q3 results may hinge less on deliveries and revenue, which are largely known, than on gross margin and management’s outlook. Deliveries of 486,500 and energy storage deployments of 13.7 GWh provide a strong starting point, but profitability will determine whether demand translates into sustainable earnings. Investors will also assess automotive pricing, cost control and future growth expectations. The reported SpaceX profit and confirmation that a potential Tesla–SpaceX merger is under consideration add another layer of uncertainty.