CoreWeave Fell 10%. Is AI Debt The Next Crack?

Context

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) continues to showcase robust fundamentals, fueled by aggressive corporate actions and an unrelenting surge in global AI computing demand.

• The Numbers: The stock is trading near $229–$234, showing explosive multi-year growth but maintaining a surprisingly normalized P/E ratio around 26x to 29x due to its skyrocketing earnings profile.

• The Catalyst: NVDA recently authorized a massive $150 billion share buyback program. This is the largest repurchase authorization in corporate history, establishing an exceptionally strong valuation floor for the asset.

My trade

The Setup: Looking at the short-to-medium-term technical structure, NVDA has been consolidating inside a structural rectangle formation with a hard floor at $213 to $217 and resistance building near $235.

Action Plan:

- Accumulation Zone: Accumulating shared exposure between $220 and $225 on minor macro pullbacks, aligning perfectly with structural support.

- The Target: Holding a dynamic price target toward $260 for a short-term swing, while keeping a core runner position for the eventual path toward Wall Street’s $300+ targets before the end of the market cycle.

Takeaway

Do not time the top on an unmatched ecosystem.

While the retail market hyper-focuses on the high hardware price tags, they overlook Nvidia’s primary moat: the CUDA software ecosystem and strategic acquisitions like Hugging Face. Investors are not just buying semiconductors; they are buying the global operating system for artificial intelligence. When a company prints over $21 billion in free cash flow in a single quarter and immediately uses it to swallow its own float, betting against the trend is a losing strategy. Treat any macro-driven dip as a prime buying opportunity.

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

Context: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and ASML announced a collaborative initiative to lead the semiconductor industry’s transition to a larger-format Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography photomask. While High NA EUV will be adopted for production using the current, 6-inch masks, the transition to larger, 12-inch masks is expected to further increase fab productivity, lower chipmaking costs and remove stitching constraints, benefiting the entire semiconductor industry. It will enable advanced chip manufacturers to fully leverage the advantages of High NA EUV, making future generations of leading-edge chips more cost-effective.

My Trade: Dollar cost averaging into one of the strongest stock in the Taiwan market. Collaboration with the Monopoly giant ASML further strengthens TSM's position in the sector.

Takeaway: TSMC intends to use ASML’s High NA technology in high-volume manufacturing for advanced nodes starting in 2030. As technology nodes advance, TSMC expects the number of layers requiring High NA EUV will rise, driven primarily by the increasingly complex transistor architectures required for AI applications. @Captain's Treasure

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

NVIDIA: AI Growth Still Dominates, but Expectations Are the Risk

NVIDIA remains the strongest AI-chip franchise, but the setup is becoming more balanced. Its latest reported Q1 FY2027 delivered $81.6bn revenue (+85% YoY), with Data Center up 92% to $75.2bn and a strong 74.9% gross margin. Q2 guidance of $91bn implies another 12% sequential jump. (NVIDIA Newsroom⁠)

Fundamentally, FY2026 revenue reached $215.9bn (+65%), net income $120.1bn and EPS $4.90. The concern is margin compression: FY2026 gross margin fell to 71.1% from 75.0%, while operating expenses rose 41%. (NVIDIA Newsroom⁠)

Technically, NVDA closed at $208.48 on August 24, down 2.9%, with RSI around 22—oversold but still bearish. (MarketWatch⁠) Valuation around 24–25x forward earnings is actually more attractive than AMD and Broadcom, making NVDA the strongest risk/reward among major AI semiconductors. (Yahoo Finance⁠)

Option strategy: Prefer covered calls 21–35 DTE, targeting $225–$230 strikes, ~0.20–0.30 delta. Avoid selling immediately before earnings because implied volatility is elevated. After earnings, premium collection becomes more attractive if NVDA holds above $200.

View: BUY/HOLD. Fundamentally #1; valuation increasingly reasonable, but earnings expectations leave little room for disappointment.

At 12:26pm EST today

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $NVDA 2X Long ETF(NVDL.US)

king flipped from 220 long gamma at 8m exposure to 230 (now 32m) short gamma exposure. 240 long gamma could potentially be the dealer target if we get to that 230 launchpad. Before the flip, dealers were buying dips and selling rips. After the flip, dealers are no longer looking to stabilize price so if we see a run up before/after earnings, dealers will have to buy into the rally to stay delta neutral. Because of this shift I entered an NVDA lotto: 230c 8/31 @ 1.30. We either run up before earnings or we see a uno reversal compared to previous post earnings on this name.

Nvidia has confirmed it will release its FY2027 Q2 earnings report after the market closes on August 26th. The biggest question in the market regarding AI has now moved beyond simply stating "AI demand" to the next step: how fast can such massive capital expenditures continue to grow? Therefore, the key point this time is the absence of data center revenue, gross margin, guidance for the next quarter, and demand related to Blackwell/Rubin.

If Nvidia continues to provide stringent guidance, AI, optical communications, warehousing, and servers may all see further valuation increases. If the earnings are strong and guidance is initiated, then caution is warranted regarding the realization of gains after earnings season.

Nvidia's performance tonight could very well determine the final leg of the tech stock rally at the end of August.